CAMERON MUST GO - Brilliant
analysis of Tory party disaster,"
Tory footsoldiers are deserting the battlefield. It could (WILL!) cost them the election
By Matthew Holehouse Politics Last updated: August 9th, 2013
How many Tories are left? In the 1950s membership was north of three million, and wealthy local associations bought grand town houses to
turn into Conservative Clubs with bars and handsome dining rooms and dances every Friday night. By 2005, when David Cameron won the
leadership, the membership stood 258,000. The latest House of Commons estimates put the numbers at somewhere between 130 and
150,000. Now the party's own MPs openly admit the figure could be lower than 100,000, around half Labour’s membership. Speak to those in the
party outside Westminster, and they will tell you the branches out in the country are withering, and this could cost David Cameron an
outright majority at the next election.
However successful the brilliant strategists at CCHQ are at framing the election, unpicking Ed Miliband and winning the air war on the
radio and television, they fear Labour will hold and gain seats in a string of marginals because the troops the Tories need to fight the
ground war have gone. Central Office does not discuss membership figures, saying it is a matter for local associations.
But income from membership has slipped and slipped, from £1,085,000 in 2009 to £863,000 in 2011, to £747,000 last year. And if you read
the associations’ books, membership secretaries are despairing. In Milton Keynes, comprised of two-Tory held constituencies, full
voting membership (i.e. those who live in the constituency and pay dues to the central party) fell from 520 members in 2010 to 300 in
2011, and then down again to 264 in 2012. In Peterborough, with a Tory majority of 4,861, they are down to 140, from 264 in 2010.
In Totnes, the safe seat of the fiercely independent Dr Sarah Wollaston, numbers have declined to 560, from 701 in 2010. In Brighton and Hove,
last year – which at £25 a head works out at fewer than 30 members. The chairman wrote: “Expenditure over income during 2012 was
significant and is clearly unsustainable in the long term.”
In Croydon: “It has been a disappointing year for membership, with the declining trend of previous years continuing.” In Brentford and
Isleworth: “We continue to have difficulty in raising funds for our day-to-day activities.” In Loughborough: “Despite our efforts we have suffered a 10 per cent
Ground wars can still decide elections: the leafleting, the canvassing, identifying the core vote, making sure people have
returned their postal ballots, and then, on the day, pushing the base by the thousand from their homes to the polls. These honed
operations are why the Liberal Democrats have become a stubborn force in the towns they choose to fight hard – such as Eastleigh –
and why Labour clung on to northern seats in 2010 as Gordon Brown stumbled and flailed.
“It’s an emergency,” says Ben Harris-Quinney, director of the Conservative Grassroots campaign group. “It’s a dire situation which is going to significantly constrain our ability to win in 2015 and beyond. Losing 70 per cent of our members is not something that can be reversed quickly.”
He wants the party to urgently consider open primaries for selecting candidates to get Tory-leaning neighbourhoods involved in the party
again. The average age of a local association in the sixties, and many of the most loyal lack the energy to spend long hours on the
doorstep.
“The writings on the wall because there’s no new blood coming in,” says Harris-Quinney. “All the modernisation agenda has done is turn off the older members. In 20 or 30 years’ time that meeting room is going to be empty, because there’s no 20, 30, 40 year-olds there now
that show a way back.”
“The Party base has shrunk hugely and the thin band of those willing to leaflet and canvass is now close to extinction,” wrote Keith Mitchell, the former leader of Oxfordshire County Council, (CAMERON'S HOMELAND) in an open letter to David Cameron and Grant Shapps after the May elections.
had no chance of telling over a huge number of polling stations and, therefore, no prospect of getting out the vote on a scientific basis.”
Cameron will lose the next election - willingly - like he lost the last
one. He is far happier with Clegg than he is with Conservatives. Time,
Money and Tory membership are running out.
So Cameron must go. Now.
RA
Rodney is an excellent historical researcher, but a very poor political
strategist:
Cameron will be very richly rewarded for what he's doing right now and
has done. Societies and national identities HAVE TO collapse, to create
an acceptable New World Order. Cameron intends to bring that about.
I very much doubts he wants to be Prime Minister next time. If Labour
get back in, four things happen:
1. Irrespective of Tory wipeout, UKIP will die, simply because under
Farage's equally lukewarm and incompetent leadership, it will be blamed
for splitting the Tory vote and 'letting Labour in'. Farage knows the
party is ill-prepared and unfunded for any Westminster campaign, but he
has no idea how it should be operating, and doesn't want to win seats in
Westminster anyway. He's quite happy, however, to send other UKIP people
over-the-top, with broom handles and mops instead of proper political
'equipment'.
2. Labour will continue with the same nation-destroying policies as the
Tory-Dim-Libs. More EU, more tax+waste, more immigration, more insane
'anti discrimination' laws, fewer real freedoms, a bigger and more
intrusive state, banking sector with an iron grip on national assets.
Cameron wants this too, but realises he'll be called out on it by real
conservatives. If Labour are in charge, it's no concern of his.
3. The festering, corrupt, putrid sore that is 'devolution' will
continue to get worse, making the UK even less governable by sensible
people. Despite this, all the devolutionists will be delighted to
embrace EU diktats, as it puffs up their pride by treating their talking
shops as the parliaments of real countries (albeit emasculated ones).
4. The Tories will split over their dreadful defeat, leaving a shambles
in right-of-centre politics. Cameron will be ousted or resign, but he
won't actually care: his job is done.
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S M