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Brown gets poll boost as bank bail out helps Labour gain ground A ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday suggests Gordon Brown has made significant inroads into the Conservatives' lead thanks to his handling of the banking crisis. The poll put the Tories on 40 per cent, with Labour nine points behind on 31 per cent. But Brown's recovery could prove short-lived: while only 25 per cent of people thought David Cameron would have handled the crisis better, just 37 per cent of people think Brown will gain an electoral advantage. (Independent on Sunday) The Mole: will financial turmoil drive voters back to Brown? The Mole: If Tory lead falls Labour believe they have a chance Political Betting owes its existence to the desire  to gamble ones  own money!  There  is a considerable number of people who bet on the  results of elections and these people are interested in accurate  forecasting above all. Last night I sent out a raft of disconnected polls which might well  have left readers in a state of great confusion! Now Political Betting comes to our rescue!  Mike Smithson;s track  recrd is extremely good. He should dispel some of the confusion! xxxxxxxxxxxxxx cs ======================= POLITICALBETTING.com   19.10.08 So was that the Labour recovery that was? First of all - hands up - I got it wrong. My reading of the  extraordinary events of the past fortnight was that this would give  Labour a significant boost and that the crisis was a potential game- changer that could alter our view of the next election. This is how  I've been betting. We've all seen the incredible transformation that has come over Brown  - the international acclaim that has given him an extra spring in his  step, the newly recovered confidence and a smile that looks genuine  if a little inappropriate for the times. All this has given heart to  Labour MPs in marginal seats who had become reconciled to losing  their jobs and salaries at the election. Alas overnight we've had three new polls which must have gone down  like a lead balloon in Downing Street. Surely Labour and Gordon could  have expected better? BPIX - the non-British Polling Council firm that uses YouGov for its  fieldwork and never reveals its detailed data has this in the Mail on  Sunday. The comparisons are with the pollster's last survey just  after the Labour conference - CON 46% (+3): LAB 30% (-1): LD 13%  (-4). The fieldwork continued into Saturday. ComRes for the Independent on Sunday has with comparisons on the  firm's last poll also straight after the Labour conference - CON 40% (-1): LAB 31%(+2): LD16% (-2). This was carried out on Wednesday and  Thursday before David Cameron got back into the headlines with his  big attack on Brown ICM for the News of the World which might have had a voting intention  question but if it did nobody is reporting the numbers. This had 13%  saying they were more likely to vote Labour as a result of Brown's  handling of the crisis compared with 22% saying they were less  likely.  [ie a net effect of a -9% thumbs-down on Brown's performance  -cs] All three polls have positive figures for Brown on his handling of  the crisis: ICM had it by 54% to 36% and there were similar numbers  from BPIX. . I'm far from convinced of the importance of non-voting intention  findings. If they meant anything in electoral terms they would show  up in how people say they would vote. They don't and that is Gordon's  problem this morning. We should get a clearer picture from other polls that are in the pipe- line. YouGov has a surveys of marginals out on Wednesday while  fieldwork for Ipsos-MORI's October monitor is taking place at the  moment and we should have those numbers mid-week as well. Before then I hope to look at the detail of the surveys -  particularly the ICM poll which is reported in such an odd manner. In the Glenrothes by election betting I expect that SNP will become  an even tighter favourite. Mike Smithson Darling pledges spending to help beat recession Alistair Darling has said that he will increase borrowing to help Britain spend its way out of recession. The Keynesian interventionist policy will give the go-ahead to big-money projects like the Trident nuclear deterrent replacement, the Royal Navy's two new aircraft carriers and London's £16bn Crossrail scheme. The housing, energy and small business sectors will also benefit. (Sunday Telegraph) Bail-outs are a threat to democracy The First Post business pages The crisis is all your fault Mobile phone database planned Everyone who buys a mobile telephone will be forced to present their passport and register their identity on a national database under government plans to extend the powers of state surveillance. Whitehall officials have raised the idea of a register containing the names and addresses associated with the UK's 72m mobile phones in talks with phone companies. Pay-as-you-go phones are popular with terrorists because they can be bought without supplying a name or address. (Sunday Times) A time to reflect on lost liberties Negative equity to affect 2m Collapsing house prices are plunging 60,000 homeowners a month into negative equity – a rate which will see 2m households in negative equity by 2010. The figure is worse than the 1.8m victims of Britain's last property crash in the early 1990s. Repossessions have soared to 19,000 in the first half of this year, up 40 per cent on the previous figures, leading Chief Secretary to the Treasury Yvette Cooper to promise that banks will face new restrictions on home repossessions. (Sunday Times, Observer) Cash was king - now gold is God Book review: put not your trust in bankers Woolas accused over immigration Labour MPs have accused the new immigration minister Phil Woolas of "pandering to right-wing extremists" after he suggested that the number of migrants should be capped to ensure jobs for British workers during the impending economic recession. Woolas said he would not allow the population of the UK to rise above 70m. The stricter policy is in response to unemployment rising to an eight-year high of 5.7 per cent. (Observer) Did Enoch Powell have a point? Anti-abortion MPs have given up their parliamentary struggle to cut the time limit for abortions. The debate had descended into farce with both pro-choice and pro-life MPs tabling rival abortion-related amendments to the government's embryology bill. MPs are now calling for the issue to be resolved by a parliamentary inquiry instead. (Observer) Sarah Palin is wrong about abortion Prosecutors have given a detailed reconstruction of the events leading to the murder of Leeds University student Meredith Kercher in Perugia. At a committal hearing, they said Seattle-born Amanda Knox had stabbed Kercher in a satanic ritual with the complicity of her former boyfriend and an Ivorian drifter. (Sunday Times) Murder in Umbria Lord Mandelson has accepted hospitality from Nat Rothschild, a hedge fund manager from the famous banking dynasty, on a Caribbean island. The Sunday Times claims that Mandelson scotched opposition to a hostile takeover of steel-maker Arcelor by Mittal Steel. Rothschild, 37, is co-chairman of Atticus Capital which had shares in both companies. (Sunday Times) How Guyana brought out the bully in Mandelson People: now Lord Mandy wants security gates GPs are to be paid bonuses in return for not sending patients to hospital. Under the plans, which are already in place in parts of the country, surgeries are paid for not exceeding their pre-agreed quota for the number of patients they should refer to hospital. (Mail on Sunday) Britain is ignoring the dangers of a build-up of ozone, a contributor to global warming and respiratory illnesses, according to an expert on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Measures to curtail the gas are failing, leading to 1,500 deaths a year, a figure set to rise by 50 per cent over the next decade. (Observer) Are we lying about the environment? March of the eco-imperialists Thames Valley police have pulled out of reality TV series Road Wars because they are concerned about how their officers are being depicted. In response to a councillor who claimed Sky series made the force look weak, Chief Constable Sara Thornton said, "It does not show us in the best light." (Observer) Sergei Ivanov (left), the deputy to Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin, has said his country will not attack its neighbours and has no claim to the states it lost after the collapse of the USSR. Russia is attempting to repair its relations with the West after its stock market was hard-hit by the credit crunch and hopes to join the World Trade Organisation. (Sunday Times) How to avoid a second Crimean War Abkhazia celebrates Georgia's humiliation The United Nations World Food Programme has warned that the number of Zimbabweans needing food aid is expected to double by early next year to 5m. The news comes as aid agencies complain President Robert Mugabe's attempts to stifle profiteering in his country's shattered financial system are preventing them from withdrawing money to make payments to their workers. (Independent on Sunday, Sunday Telegraph) Zimbabwe Today: exclusive reports from Moses Moyo in Harare The Pakistani army is battling to stop supply routes for British and American forces in Afghanistan from falling under Taliban control. Pakistani forces are targeting Taliban commander Mohammed Tariq Alfridi, who has seized terrain around the strategic mile-long Kohat tunnel three times since January. (Sunday Times) Al Qaeda is losing but the West isn't winning America's FBI has been vetting the people likely to take over in the White House following November's US election, while senior aides to Barack Obama have met members of George Bush's White House staff. The measures are intended to ensure any new administration can deal from day one with any crises. The FBI is concerned terrorists or unfriendly countries may take advantage of the power vacuum between November and the presidential inauguration in January. (Sunday Telegraph) Alexander Cockburn: Where's Ralph Nader when you need him? US Election: the latest news, gossip and analysis Britain's second-biggest life insurer, Prudential, is attempting to secure finance from some of the world's largest sovereign investment funds, including some based in China and the Middle East, to help it seal an offer for part of stricken American insurer AIG. (Sunday Telegraph) AIG rescue and the Goldman Sachs connection The Serious Fraud Office is considering an inquiry into BBC business editor Robert Peston's (left) string of market-moving banking scoops. The SFO told the Observer it had received a complaint from Tory MP Greg Hands, backed by shadow chancellor George Osborne, asking it to investigate allegations of fraudulent behaviour in the Treasury or Number 10. (Observer) People: Robert Peston is a thorn in Alistair Darling's side Giant savings bank ING is talking to the Dutch government about an injection of €9bn of taxpayers' money. The bank, which has more than 1m British customers, is expected to announce a deal in the next 24 hours. An admission on Friday that it was about to announce its first-ever quarterly loss sent its shares plunging to a 13-year low. (Sunday Times) The First Post business pages "Beautiful, soothing and psychotic" paintings by the beat writer William Burroughs (left) are to be exhibited at the Riflemaker Gallery in London. The 100 abstract works, painted on the inside of manila folders, have languished at the writer's home in Lawrence, Kansas since his death in 1997.  (Independent on Sunday) On the Road to ruin A portrait of Queen Elizabeth I has been found in a country house in East Sussex. The dirty, dusty painting, completed just months after she came to the throne, shows Elizabeth in her twenties, simply dressed with a pale face. Only two other portraits from early in Elizabeth's reign are known. (Sunday Times) 50 artists have laid down their manifestos for the 21st century. Gilbert and George, Yoko Ono and Mark Wallinger are among the artists involved. And as part of his manifesto talk today, Brian Eno will call for a new political party called the Thank You Party to congratulate people for doing things that are right. (Independent on Sunday) Art: the Frieze Art Fair Prince Charles (left) will receive 60 presents from his wife Camilla as part of his upcoming 60th birthday celebrations. The gifts include a 1948 Armagnac and a DVD of The Goon Show. (Mail on Sunday) "Definitely not Grace Jones, that's for sure. I think it would have to be Maud Adams." Roger Moore is asked to name his favourite Bond girl. (Daily Telegraph) Prince Michael of Kent has been warned by "surprised friends" about Heather Mills's "interesting history" after the pair apparently struck up a friendship when they met at a party. (Daily Telegraph) German tabloid Bild says Austrian right-wing politician Jorg Haider, who died in a car crash last weekend, went to Stadtkramer, a local gay bar before the accident. (Independent on Sunday) Celebrated chef Marco Pierre White (left) has returned to his former girlfriend Marie Helvin after separating from his wife Mati, according to friends. (Daily Telegraph) The International Monetary Fund is investigating French economist Dominique Straus-Kahn over allegations he abused his position by engaging in a sexual relationship with Piroska Nagy, a married senior official in the IMF's Africa department.  (Observer) Andrew Lloyd Webber is to write Britain's Eurovision song next year.  The British contestant will be chosen by public vote during a BBC programme to be called Your Country Needs You. (Mail on Sunday) David Cameron has been taking advice from marketing agency Pretty Little Head on how to make the Conservatives' image more appealing to women, particularly middle class mothers. (Sunday Times) "I can't check-in at the airport now without my ID being taken and being grilled." Composer John Adams (left) claims he has been blacklisted in his native America for his controversial operas. (Observer) Hugh Grant has pulled out of his latest romcom, Lost For Words, in which he plays a womanising movie star, after an alleged dispute over the screenplay, dismaying executive producer Richard Curtis. (Sunday Telegraph) Billionaire Egyptian real estate mogul and MP Hisham Talaat Moustafa, once thought to be 'untouchable' by ordinary Egyptians, has appeared in court charged with the murder of 30-year-old Lebanese singer Suzanne Tamim. (Independent on Sunday) Jamie Oliver has opened up a seemingly unassailable lead in the Christmas cookbook sales race, outselling rival TV chef Nigella Lawson by four-to-one. (Sunday Telegraph) "It's not just a bimble across the countryside... we're expecting to fall off many a time." Prince Harry (left) speaks before setting off with his brother Prince William on a 1,000 mile off-road motorbike trek through South Africa. (Sunday Times) Simon Cowell was enraged by an on-air comment made by fellow X-Factor judge Dannii Minogue. After a song by last year's winner Leon Jackson, Minogue said, "Simon did not discover Leon. He never wanted him in the competition. But you rock, my friend." Cowell told Minogue off-camera: "Don't you ever show me up like that again." (Sunday Mirror) Bruce Forsyth will quit the BBC's Strictly Come Dancing after the current series. Forsyth, 80, has been stung by criticism of his presentation style as "doddery" after he repeatedly got his words mixed up. (People) Guy Ritchie is resigned to his wife Madonna (left) running off with baseball star Alex 'A-Rod' Rodriguez following the couple's imminent divorce. Under their pre-nup, Ritchie will receive £10-12m in cash plus their 1,200 acre Wiltshire estate and their pub in London's Mayfair. (News of the World) Angelina Jolie plans to adopt a second Ethiopian child in the New Year to bond with her three-year-old daughter Zahara. She will travel to Africa with Brad Pitt as soon as her new twins are six months old. (Sunday Mirror) Barry George, who was acquitted in August of Jill Dando's murder, has secretly spent an evening with the fiancee of Suffolk Strangler Steve Wright. Pam Wright and George were spotted in the Old Swanne