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Tehran deflects Hamas SOS for intervention against an Israeli attack

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

December 25, 2008, 7:02 PM (GMT+02:00)

Hamas leader Khalad Meshaal gets runaround from Tehran

Hamas appealed to Tehran and Hizballah Thursday, Dec. 25, asking for Iran's support by threatening to intervene if Israel launched an attack on the Gaza Strip, DEBKAfile's Iranian sources report. Hamas' Damascus-based politburo chief Khalad Meshaal phoned an official called Abolfazl at the Iranian embassy and asked urgently for a statement from Tehran that would daunt Israel from attacking. Using their special telephone line, Meshaal also reached Hizballah's leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut to demand a declaration of support for the people of Gaza, including a veiled threat to open a second front against Israel by launching a rocket attack from Lebanon.

Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert meanwhile strongly urged Gazan Palestinians to stand up to Hamas and stop them shooting missiles to ward off an Israeli military operation. He addressed them over al Arabiya television.

In Cairo, foreign minister Tzipi Livni discussed the Gaza crisis with Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and its foreign and intelligence ministers. She said the purpose of her trip was not to ask Egypt for permission to embark on military action in the Gaza Strip. This decision was solely Israel's, she said.

In Tehran, Iran's national security council convened soon after receiving the Hamas SOS. According to our sources, the forum decided not to reject it out of hand but to inform Meshaal that Iran was awaiting developments and closely following Israel's military operation to see how it developed.

Iran then ordered Nasrallah to refrain from making public threats until Tehran decides on its response to the Hamas appeal. The Hizballah leader was allowed only to make emotional remarks about the Palestinians' "suffering" and their "brave stand" against "Zionist aggression."

Our sources note that the Iranian regime is thinking twice before undertaking military commitments to deter Israel. For one thing, they believe it would have the opposite effect and offer Israel vindication for a major campaign. This would cause Hamas more harm than good. For another, this posture could harm Iranian and Hizballah interests in the Arab arena.

Gaza clash impending – Israel air strikes versus Palestinian long-range missiles

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

December 24, 2008, 8:58 AM (GMT+02:00)

Israeli Air Force prepares for action

The fifty or so missiles and rockets Hamas sent crashing into Israel Wednesday, Dec. 24, along with dozens of mortar rounds, represent no more than a quarter of its capabilities, DEBKAfile's military sources report.

IDF officers calculate that the fundamentalist Palestinian group can shoot 200 missiles a day, on a par with Hizballah's barrage against Galilee in the 2006 Lebanon war, with devastating consequences in casualties and damage to property.

They can reach an area far broader than the strip taking hits from Gaza Wednesday which was delimited by Ashkelon to the north and Netivot to the east. Therefore an outer rim of 30 locations 30 km distant from the Palestinian enclave has now been connected to the Homeland Command's early warning system, including Kiryat Gath, Kiryat Malachi, the Lachish Region and Ashdod. Homeland Command operations units have been deployed there too, together with emergency medical, firefighting and rescue teams. Magen David Adom is on top terror preparedness with 200 ambulances on standby in southwestern Israel.

The Israeli security cabinet meeting Wednesday concluded that Israel would have to resort to military action to extinguish the escalating missile, mortar and rocket barrage from Gaza, which Wednesday left a trail of some 57 shock victims – half of them children - and wrecked homes, vehicles, shops, workshops and roads. The ministers took into account that Hamas would counter effective Israeli air strikes in Gaza by fielding its long-range missiles now believed to have a range of 42 km. This takes in the important Mediterranean port town of Ashdod and the outskirts of Beersheba.

The dilemma facing Israel's military command is this: Will Hamas if attacked immediately throw its long-range weapons into the fray against southern Israel, or rather build up the tempo of its short-range missiles in stages? They hope that, like the IDF, Hamas will exercise a measure of restraint and not lose sight of its goal, believed to be the renewal of the "ceasefire" which it formally terminated last Friday.

However, field officers in the South are less optimistic. They told DEBKAfile's sources that they don't believe half-wars are a practical option.

Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni has been invited to meet Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak Thursday, Dec. 25, to discuss the Gaza crisis. Cairo has broken the embargo on the Gaza Strip by inviting any government wishing to send aid to the Palestinian population to send it via Egyptian territory.