Summary: The dream of the latest Euro-rescue plan lasted for one week. Already painful reality emerges to confront the bold but baseless claims of Europe’s leaders. Only with exceptional skill and determination can they make this work. European leaders racing to prevent their week-old debt crisis strategy from unravelling convene emergency talks today to tell Greece there is no alternative to the budget cuts imposed in the bailout plan. FRANCE AND Germany have vowed to employ “whatever means necessary” to ensure a snap Greek referendum doesn’t derail last week’s EU summit deal. Markets Are Falling, As Papandreou Says That Euro Membership Itself Will Be In The Referendum
snip
These are not random isolated events, but steps in a larger process. Here are my guesses.
The rescue plan will be seen as a failure. The ring fence around Greece was imaginary, the bank recapitalization a farce, the writedown of Greek debt insufficient, the EFSF plan a dream.
The hopes the Plan aroused might slowly fade. Or they might pop, like an bubble or illusion.
Europe’s leaders burned both time and credibility in this failed effort, just like the previous ones during the past 21 months.
Now Europe’s problem will be seen as regional, not just Greece.
As a result of these things the next rescue plan probably becomes 10x more difficult
http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2011/11/europe’s-rescue-plan-meets-reality-which-will-win/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=europe%25e2%2580%2599s-rescue-plan-meets-reality-which-will-win
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/eu-leaders-hold-pre-group-of-20-crisis-talks-to-push-greece-on-bailout-aid.html
Papandreou’s bailout strategy unnerves European leaders
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/papandreous-bailout-strategy-unnerves-european-leaders/article2222012/?from=sec434
Amid mounting dissent, tables turn on PM
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_01/11/2011_412789
Despondent Greeks call referendum plan 'blackmail'
ATHENS, Greece - Disillusioned Greeks heaped scorn on Prime Minister George Papandreou's plan to put a bailout lifeline to a popular referendum, with some viewing it as a ploy to win backing for harsh austerity measures.
http://business.asiaone.com/Business/News/My%2BMoney/Story/A1Story20111102-308304.html
Debt crisis: Greek PM wins cabinet support for EU bailout referendum
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has won unanimous support from cabinet for his controversial plan to hold a referendum on the EU bailout deal
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8863929/Debt-crisis-Greek-PM-wins-cabinet-support-for-EU-bailout-referendum.html
Greek cabinet backs referendum on debt rescue plan
ATHENS — Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou secured the unanimous backing of his cabinet for a referendum on the eurozone debt rescue plan, government spokesman Elias Mossialos said early Wednesday.
The cabinet also approved Papandreou's decision to hold a vote of confidence in parliament on his government, Mossialos told reporters.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5h4WLUZkT3ygPKL44oHRP6k2t9sxw?docId=CNG.d4b30578e8a49c8ec0ad0ca4de91d278.91
Caught off guard by the Greek announcement, a harried German chancellor Angela Merkel has cleared her calendar to travel to Cannes today – a day earlier than planned – to consult French president Nicolas Sarkozy ahead of the G20 summit.
As European stock markets slumped, perplexed French and German leaders struggled to grasp the implications of the announcement and ordered Greek prime minister George Papendreou to the French Riviera city to explain himself.
Dr Merkel’s spokesman said the meeting, to be attended by senior officials from the EU and IMF, would “take all measures necessary” to ensure a “rapid implementation” of last week’s agreed summit measures.
German officials said Dr Merkel would use the meeting, beginning at 5.30 pm, to “read the riot act” to the Greek premier. The officials conceded they were caught by surprise, learning through news agency reports on Monday evening about the plan. They said there was no question of renegotiating last week’s summit conclusions.
“We still don’t know for sure if there’s going to be referendum and we don’t know when,” said one frustrated official in Berlin.
“We hope most Greeks would support last week’s deal but referenda are like opinion polls: the result would depend largely on how the question is framed.”
Speaking on the steps of the Élysée Palace last night after a hastily convened meeting with senior ministers and the governor of the central bank, Christian Noyer, Mr Sarkozy said the Greek announcement “took the whole of Europe by surprise”
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2011/1102/1224306912694.html
EU tries to stem crisis after Greek referendum move
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2011/1102/1224306913172.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-stakes-just-got-raised-papandreou-to-put-euro-membership-in-the-referendum-2011-11
“The dilemma isn’t ‘this or another government’,” Papandreou told his ministers in Athens today, according to an e-mailed transcript of his statements. “The dilemma is ‘yes or no to the loan accord’, ‘yes or no to Europe’, ‘yes or no to the euro’.”
Papandreou said resorting to early elections would be “shirking responsibility”.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-01/papandreou-says-referendum-will-confirm-greece-as-euro-member.html
Papandreou Replaces Greek Military Chiefs, Defense Ministry Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-01/papandreou-replaces-greek-military-chiefs-defense-ministry-says.html
Papandreou Will Press on With Referendum
The country that invented drama and democracy is not disappointing the world on either front. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou on Monday called for two high- stakes votes.
The first asks parliament to say by the end of this week whether it has confidence in his leadership. The second is a referendum in which Greek voters would approve or reject, possibly by year’s end, Europe’s latest debt-crisis workout.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-31/papandreou-says-new-greek-loan-plans-must-be-put-to-referendum.html
Wednesday, 2 November 2011
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