Explosion en Iran : merci le hasard (info # 011311/11) [Analyse]
Par Stéphane Juffa
metula
Translation in English
Explosion in Iran: thank you the chance (info # 011311/11) [Analysis]
By Stéphane Juffa
Metula
Chance often have it, certainly, but on condition that they not be exaggerated in what he was asked to do. This is essentially my reaction after an afternoon and a night's work of our small team to investigate the explosion yesterday in western Tehran.
The main error of the sorcerer's apprentice of the press or sites, those that minimize abusive information as much as those who exaggerate the scope, is to not spend enough time on verifiable facts that can be collected.
If one has the patience, as well as keys to understanding, then it is quite possible to know precisely what happened yesterday at 1:00 p.m. local and 37 km from Tehran, inside of a base ballistic missile called Modarres, or, sometimes, Sajad, at the headquarters of the Persian army.
This base is located in the territory of the village of Bigdeneh, near the villages of Shahryar and Malard. It is exclusively served by the branch of the elite corps of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards in charge of logistics and firing of ballistic missiles of medium range Shihab 3 and Shihab 4 (up to Israel and half of Europe).
Sources of interest claim that the basis of Modarres is also in charge of handling gear Zilzal ground-ground, but we have no absolute evidence as to the latter hypothesis.
At this point in our wealth of information, it is necessary to deliver an understanding of strategic: if Israel and / or other nations attacked the nuclear infrastructure of the "Republic" Islamic, they choose targets to hit in order of priority clear.
First they destroy precisely the ability to launch Shihab, to deprive the ayatollahs of the opportunity to respond in Tel Aviv, US camps in Iraq and the Gulf, as well as the cities of southern Europe and Arab countries.
Then, these armies would attempt to neutralize anti-aircraft defenses placed around plants and laboratories that have neutralized. This, so that their planes and their pilots are not hindered in their work.
Thirdly These 'aggressors' destroy the infrastructure roads, railways and airports that would enable the enemy to send reinforcements to the sites targeted by the "invaders' or cons their back line and to procurement. The Israelis and / or neutralize other nations, in the same phase, enemy military forces are most likely to give them battle.
And it is only then that the destruction of sites of Iran's nuclear industry would begin from the air, and, if necessary, through the timely intervention of commandos on the ground.
The fourth phase would intervene only when the civilian populations of states in the coalition and its allies would have been protected, and that the junta theocracy in Tehran would be virtually deprived of any means to intervene against the attackfacilities within its territory, and would be sentenced to observe the damage inflicted on him, forced into a spectator.
This, unless, of course, that the "attackers" hear also influence the political level, to help the opposition to take power, in which case they would submit as the regime's leaders to bombing rule. In fact, an operation comprising a policy component depends largely on the participation of America to the company: if the Jews are called upon to act alone, or with one or two minor allies, they will simply eliminate the risk of atomic without seeking systematically to neutralize Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and their accomplices.
Still, in all cases envisaged an operation in Iran would start with the neutralization of the shooting of Shihab, units that handle and their senior officers. And in this dialectic, the first site to destroy - or render useless - it would - but you guessed it! - Of Modarres, who was shot early yesterday afternoon.
And as luck so things in the blast, General Moqadam-Tehrani, the man at the head of the Office of the self-sufficiency in Pasdaran, that is, strategic command, in charge transport of missiles and weapons non-conventional mass destruction on their targets, was killed. What was an officer of such importance to the place of a simple transfer of ammunition? This hypothesis seems, too, totally absurd.
Like all the victims were soldiers belonging to this elite unit. Certainly, chance knows how to choose the ideal place and time to catch the most birds of prey in his nets.
There is, moreover, no interest in stopping on the exact number of victims. The assessment provided by Razan Sharif, changes by the hour ... down. Sharif had been deceived by unreadable characters inscribed on the first fax he had received, and repeated ... without understanding and without raising his phone before announcing the death of 27 Pasdaran.
What is certain, in this case is that the blast was so powerful it broke windows in the western districts of the capital, and has raised fears an "earthquake" until in central Tehran.
Such effects, some fifty kilometers from the explosion, that is enough for most physicists to precisely define a fairly narrow range of power. We received an evaluation of this kind, which allows us to say that the blast was very powerful ....Incredibly powerful.
By Stéphane Juffa
Metula
Chance often have it, certainly, but on condition that they not be exaggerated in what he was asked to do. This is essentially my reaction after an afternoon and a night's work of our small team to investigate the explosion yesterday in western Tehran.
The main error of the sorcerer's apprentice of the press or sites, those that minimize abusive information as much as those who exaggerate the scope, is to not spend enough time on verifiable facts that can be collected.
If one has the patience, as well as keys to understanding, then it is quite possible to know precisely what happened yesterday at 1:00 p.m. local and 37 km from Tehran, inside of a base ballistic missile called Modarres, or, sometimes, Sajad, at the headquarters of the Persian army.
This base is located in the territory of the village of Bigdeneh, near the villages of Shahryar and Malard. It is exclusively served by the branch of the elite corps of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards in charge of logistics and firing of ballistic missiles of medium range Shihab 3 and Shihab 4 (up to Israel and half of Europe).
Sources of interest claim that the basis of Modarres is also in charge of handling gear Zilzal ground-ground, but we have no absolute evidence as to the latter hypothesis.
At this point in our wealth of information, it is necessary to deliver an understanding of strategic: if Israel and / or other nations attacked the nuclear infrastructure of the "Republic" Islamic, they choose targets to hit in order of priority clear.
First they destroy precisely the ability to launch Shihab, to deprive the ayatollahs of the opportunity to respond in Tel Aviv, US camps in Iraq and the Gulf, as well as the cities of southern Europe and Arab countries.
Then, these armies would attempt to neutralize anti-aircraft defenses placed around plants and laboratories that have neutralized. This, so that their planes and their pilots are not hindered in their work.
Thirdly These 'aggressors' destroy the infrastructure roads, railways and airports that would enable the enemy to send reinforcements to the sites targeted by the "invaders' or cons their back line and to procurement. The Israelis and / or neutralize other nations, in the same phase, enemy military forces are most likely to give them battle.
And it is only then that the destruction of sites of Iran's nuclear industry would begin from the air, and, if necessary, through the timely intervention of commandos on the ground.
The fourth phase would intervene only when the civilian populations of states in the coalition and its allies would have been protected, and that the junta theocracy in Tehran would be virtually deprived of any means to intervene against the attackfacilities within its territory, and would be sentenced to observe the damage inflicted on him, forced into a spectator.
This, unless, of course, that the "attackers" hear also influence the political level, to help the opposition to take power, in which case they would submit as the regime's leaders to bombing rule. In fact, an operation comprising a policy component depends largely on the participation of America to the company: if the Jews are called upon to act alone, or with one or two minor allies, they will simply eliminate the risk of atomic without seeking systematically to neutralize Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and their accomplices.
Still, in all cases envisaged an operation in Iran would start with the neutralization of the shooting of Shihab, units that handle and their senior officers. And in this dialectic, the first site to destroy - or render useless - it would - but you guessed it! - Of Modarres, who was shot early yesterday afternoon.
And as luck so things in the blast, General Moqadam-Tehrani, the man at the head of the Office of the self-sufficiency in Pasdaran, that is, strategic command, in charge transport of missiles and weapons non-conventional mass destruction on their targets, was killed. What was an officer of such importance to the place of a simple transfer of ammunition? This hypothesis seems, too, totally absurd.
Like all the victims were soldiers belonging to this elite unit. Certainly, chance knows how to choose the ideal place and time to catch the most birds of prey in his nets.
There is, moreover, no interest in stopping on the exact number of victims. The assessment provided by Razan Sharif, changes by the hour ... down. Sharif had been deceived by unreadable characters inscribed on the first fax he had received, and repeated ... without understanding and without raising his phone before announcing the death of 27 Pasdaran.
What is certain, in this case is that the blast was so powerful it broke windows in the western districts of the capital, and has raised fears an "earthquake" until in central Tehran.
Such effects, some fifty kilometers from the explosion, that is enough for most physicists to precisely define a fairly narrow range of power. We received an evaluation of this kind, which allows us to say that the blast was very powerful ....Incredibly powerful.
This information, end to end with the evidence indicating that more than five hours after the incident, the fire still raged the basis of the Revolutionary Guards, and the flames and the column of smoke were still visible from Tehran allow the first graduation of the extent of damage.
There could be hundreds of deaths and injuries, and according to what has blown, it is also conceivable that the basic issue is no longer able to launch missiles, ... for a while.
It could and the main assault against the nuclear infrastructure of the "Republic" Iran has started yesterday, it's even quite likely, although this does not require those responsible for this attack to continue the offensive.
Knowledgeable person had imagined that the "aggressors" using conventional means to surprise the vigilance of the Iranians. Those who dreamed of waves breaking on the bomber plant, like images of World War II, will be disappointed.Today, all means are good, with a preference for the most unexpected.
One of the obvious advantages of a sabotage operation like the one yesterday, lies in that the Persians are not experiencing legitimate military response. This, as we consider it to them to secure their bases, and they can only blame themselves if they let themselves be fooled.
In addition, they publicly admitted they were victims of a commando operation, a suburb of Tehran, they implicitly recognize foreign agents are out in force on their soil, and that they are about what they see fit. This would be equivalent to the ayatollahs, to admit defeat, and more to find the permeability of their defense system. A genuine disaster for a dictatorial regime.
In this regard, Razan Sharif, spokesman of the Pasdaran, speaks of an incident during a munitions transfer activity and equipment. According to him, it would be a warehouse that exploded, not a missile base.
Version categorically denies that one of the major organizations of armed opposition to the plan, the Mujahideen-e Khalk, often nominated by their diminutive MEK. Other organizations of Iranians in exile, reliable, confirm, too, that the explosion actually occurred in both the basis of Shihab.
Persian power multiplies the charges indicate that the MEK, and other resistance movements in the Islamic theocracy, the shoulder in the commission of Mossad commando operations in the territory of the "Islamic Republic".
At Mena, one was also surprised at the contents of the news agency's semi-official Mehr, and the news agency of the regime, Fars. According to these sources, there would have been only three ambulances dispatched to the scene of the explosion.Three ambulances, for 17 or 27 dead and dozens injured?
Equally surprising, from the same sources: the roads around the base were closed in order to "facilitate access to help." Completing a perimeter, three ambulances to pass?
Three ambulances and six rescuers, who alone were allowed to enter the interior of the missile base, according to Mahmoud Mozaffar, this time, the director of the Iranian Red Crescent.
We understand that the regime did not wish that firefighters and paramedics enter the premises of Modarres, the risk that Western agents have been incorporated into the rescue. Or even more simply, that rescuers speak then they would have seen the equipment in the camp, and those who were destroyed.
But these statements raise another converging on our part: it is more than probable - that is to say almost certain - that the political leaders and officers of the Revolutionary Guards have died and left the wounded, among the best of their soldiers without care. Preferring to subject them to horrific suffering likely, rather than risk to provide information to their enemies. This gives an indication of the degree of extreme tension that exists these days between Tehran, Jerusalem and Western capitals.
Last night, the Emergency Council of the Revolution met to discuss the explosion.An extraordinary meeting of cadres of the regime, to converse on an error handling, which would have made "only" seventeen dead and no damage to the system of missiles?
Course elsewhere at the same time, we open the champagne.
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original in french
Le hasard fait souvent bien les choses, certes, mais à la condition que l’on se garde d’exagérer dans ce qu’on lui demande de faire. C’est, en substance, ma réaction, après une après-midi et une nuit de travail de notre petite équipe, à enquêter sur l’explosion survenue hier à l’ouest de Téhéran.
L’erreur principale des apprentis sorciers de la presse ou des sites, ceux qui minimisent abusivement l’information autant que ceux qui en exagèrent la portée, consiste à ne pas passer assez de temps sur les faits vérifiables qu’il est possible de recueillir.
Si on dispose de la patience nécessaire, ainsi que des clés de lecture, il est alors possible de savoir assez précisément ce qu’il s’est passé, hier, à 13 heures locales et à 37 km de Téhéran, à l’intérieur d’une base de missiles balistiques appelée Modarres, ou, parfois, Sajad, à l’état-major de l’armée perse.
Cette base est située sur le territoire du village de Bigdeneh, non loin des bourgades de Shahryar et de Malard. Elle est exclusivement desservie par la branche du corps d’élite des Gardiens de la Révolution Islamique, chargée de la logistique et des tirs des missiles balistiques de moyenne portée Shihab 3 et Shihab 4 (pouvant atteindre Israël et la moitié de l’Europe).
Des sources dignes d’intérêt affirment que la base de Modarres serait également en charge du maniement des engins sol-sol Zilzal, mais nous ne possédons aucune évidence absolue quant à cette dernière hypothèse.
A ce point de notre moisson d’informations, il est nécessaire de livrer un élément de compréhension d’ordre stratégique : si Israël et/ou d’autres nations s’en prenaient à l’infrastructure nucléaire de la "République" Islamique, elles choisiraient les cibles à frapper selon un ordre de priorité évident.
D’abord elles détruiraient précisément les capacités de lancement des Shihab, afin de priver les ayatollahs de la possibilité de riposter sur Tel-Aviv, les camps US en Irak et dans le Golfe, ainsi que sur les villes du sud de l’Europe et de pays arabes.
Ensuite, ces armées tenteraient de neutraliser les moyens de protection antiaériens disposés autour des usines et laboratoires qu’elles comptent neutraliser. Ce, afin que leurs avions et leurs pilotes ne soient pas gênés dans leur travail.
En troisième, ces "agresseurs" détruiraient les infrastructures routières, ferroviaires et aéroportuaires qui permettraient à l’ennemi de dépêcher des renforts vers les sites ciblés par les "envahisseurs" ou contre leurs lignes arrières et d’approvisionnement. Les Israéliens et/ou d’autres nations neutraliseraient, dans la même phase, les forces militaires ennemies les plus susceptibles de leur livrer bataille.
Et c’est ensuite uniquement que la destruction des sites de l’industrie nucléaire iranienne commencerait, depuis les airs, et, si nécessaire, grâce à l’intervention ponctuelle de commandos au sol.
Cette quatrième phase n’interviendrait que lorsque les populations civiles des Etats de la coalition et de leurs alliés auraient été mises à l’abri, et que la junte théocratique de Téhéran se verrait pratiquement privée de tout moyen d’intervenir contre l’attaque de ses installations survenant sur son territoire, et serait condamnée à observer les dégâts qu’on lui infligerait, en spectatrice forcée.
Ce, à moins, bien sûr, que les "assaillants" n’entendent agir également sur le plan politique, en vue d’aider l’opposition à prendre le pouvoir, auquel cas, ils soumettraient aussi les dirigeants du régime à des bombardements en règle. En fait, une opération comprenant un volet politique dépend largement de la participation de l’Amérique à l’entreprise : si les Hébreux sont amenés à agir seuls, ou avec un ou deux alliés mineurs, ils se contenteront d’éliminer le risque atomique, sans chercher, systématiquement, à neutraliser Khamenei, Ahmadinejad et leurs complices.
Reste que, dans tous les cas de figures envisagés, une opération en Iran commencerait par la neutralisation des pas de tir des Shihab, des unités qui les manient et de leurs officiers supérieurs. Et, dans cette dialectique, le premier site à détruire – ou à mettre hors d’usage – serait celui, - mais vous l’avez deviné ! – de Modarres, celui qui a été touché hier en début d’après-midi.
Et le hasard faisant si bien les choses, dans cette explosion, le général Tehrani-Moqadam, l’homme à la tête du Bureau de l’autosuffisance chez les Pasdaran, autrement dit du commandement stratégique, en charge des missiles et du transport des armes non-conventionnelles de destruction massive sur leurs objectifs, a perdu la vie. Que faisait un officier de cette importance sur le lieu d’un simple transfert de munitions ? Cette hypothèse paraît, elle aussi, totalement aberrante.
De même que toutes les victimes étaient des soldats d’élite appartenant à cette unité. Décidément, le hasard sait choisir le lieu et le moment idéaux pour attraper le plus d’oiseaux de proie dans ses filets.
Il n’y a, par ailleurs, aucun intérêt à s’arrêter sur le nombre exact des victimes. Le bilan fourni par Razan Sharif, change d’heure en heure... à la baisse. Sharif aurait été trompé par des caractères illisibles inscrits sur le premier fax qu’il aurait reçu, et… répété sans les comprendre et sans soulever son téléphone avant d’annoncer le décès de 27 Pasdaran.
Ce qui est sûr, dans cette affaire, c’est que la déflagration a été si puissante, qu’elle a brisé des vitres dans les quartiers ouest de la capitale, et qu’elle a fait craindre un "tremblement de terre" jusqu’au centre de Téhéran.
De tels effets, à une cinquantaine de kilomètres de l’explosion, voilà qui suffit à la plupart des physiciens, pour définir précisément une fourchette assez étroite de puissance. Nous avons reçu une évaluation de ce genre, qui nous permet d’affirmer que la déflagration a été… très puissante. Terriblement puissante.
Terriblement puissante
Cette information, mise bout à bout avec les témoignages indiquant, que plus de cinq heures après l’incident, l’incendie ravageait encore la base des Gardiens de la Révolution, et que les flammes et la colonne de fumée étaient toujours visibles depuis Téhéran, permettent une première graduation de l’étendue des dégâts.
Il pourrait y avoir des centaines de morts et de blessés, et, suivant ce qui a sauté, on peut aussi envisager que la base en question ne soit plus à même de lancer des missiles, pendant… un certain temps.
Il se pourrait ainsi que l’assaut principal contre l’infrastructure nucléaire de la "République" Islamique d’Iran ait débuté hier, c’est même assez probable, bien que cela n’oblige pas les responsables de cette attaque à poursuivre l’offensive.
Personne de bien informé ne s’imaginait que les "agresseurs" utiliseraient des moyens conventionnels afin de surprendre la vigilance des Iraniens. Ceux qui rêvaient à des vagues de bombardiers déferlant sur les usines, à l’instar des images de la Seconde Guerre Mondiale, vont être déçus. Aujourd’hui, tous les moyens sont bons, avec une préférence marquée pour les plus inattendus.
L’un des avantages évidents d’une opération de sabotage du type de celle d’hier, réside en cela que les Perses ne sont pas en situation légitime de répliquer militairement. Ce, car l’on considère qu’il leur appartient de sécuriser leurs bases, et qu’ils ne peuvent s’en prendre qu’à eux-mêmes s’ils se laissent berner.
De plus, s’ils admettaient publiquement avoir été victimes d’une opération de commando, dans la banlieue de Téhéran, ils reconnaîtraient implicitement que des agents étrangers sont présents en force sur leur sol, et qu’ils y font à peu près ce que bon leur semble. Cela équivaudrait, pour les ayatollahs, à admettre une défaite, en plus de constater la perméabilité de leur système de défense. Une authentique catastrophe pour un régime dictatorial.
A ce propos, Razan Sharif, le porte-parole des Pasdaran, parle d’un incident lors d’une activité de transfert de munitions et d’équipement. A l’en croire, ce serait un entrepôt qui aurait explosé, non une base de missiles.
Version que dément catégoriquement l’une des principales organisations d’opposition armée au régime, les Moudjahidin–e Khalk, souvent nommés par leur diminutif MEK. D’autres organisations d’Iraniens en exil, fiables, confirment, elles aussi, que l’explosion a effectivement sévi dans la base de Shihab.
Le pouvoir perse multiplie les accusations indiquant que les MEK, ainsi que d’autres mouvements de résistance à la théocratie islamique, épauleraient le Mossad dans la perpétration d’opérations commando sur le territoire de la "République Islamique".
A la Ména, on s’est aussi étonné du contenu des communiqués de l’agence semi-officielle Mehr, et de l’agence de presse du régime, Fars. A en croire ces sources, il n’y aurait eu que trois ambulances dépêchées sur les lieux de l’explosion. Trois ambulances, pour 17 ou 27 morts et des dizaines de blessés ?
Tout aussi surprenant, d’après les mêmes sources : les routes autour de la base auraient été fermées, afin de "faciliter l’accès aux secours". Boucler un périmètre, pour faire passer trois ambulances ?
Trois ambulances et six secouristes, qui seuls ont été autorisés à pénétrer à l’intérieur de la base de missiles, selon Mahmoud Mozaffar, cette fois-ci, le directeur du Croissant Rouge iranien.
Nous comprenons parfaitement que le régime n’ait pas souhaité que des pompiers et des ambulanciers pénètrent dans l’enceinte de Modarres, au risque que des agents occidentaux n’aient été intégrés aux secours. Ou même, plus simplement, que les secouristes parlent ensuite des équipements qu’ils auraient vus dans le camp, et de ceux qui ont été détruits.
Mais ces affirmations convergentes en suscitent une autre, de notre part : il est plus que probable – c’est-à-dire quasi certain – que les dirigeants politiques et les officiers des Gardiens de la Révolution aient ainsi laissé mourir les blessés, parmi les meilleurs de leurs soldats, sans soins. Préférant les soumettre à des souffrances probablement atroces, plutôt que risquer de fournir des informations à leurs ennemis. Cela donne une indication quant au degré de tension extrême qui règne, ces jours, entre Téhéran, Jérusalem et les capitales occidentales.
Hier soir, le Conseil d’urgence de la révolution s’est réuni pour parler de l’explosion. Une réunion extraordinaire des cadres du régime, pour deviser sur une erreur de manutention, qui n’aurait fait "que" dix-sept morts et aucun dégât au système des missiles ?
Sûr qu’ailleurs, au même moment, on sablait le champagne.
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