Thursday, 3 November 2011

Hizballah’s operational plans

Military history will record Israel’s failure to vanquish Hizbullah in the Second Lebanon War as one of the great strategic blunders in the modern era of warfare. Israel had the golden opportunity to sever Iran’s right arm in the region, but PM Olmert and his military commander Halutz botched it. Olmert would then go on to compound his mistake two years later in Gaza, leaving Hamas – Iran’s left arm in the region – intact. Today, both Hamas and Hizbullah have grown much stronger, and so has their controller, Iran.

Here is a summary of a report from the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. You can read the whole thing right here. It shouldn’t be a mystery why Iran would put this “information” into the news stream now. They’re trying to scare off an attack on their nuclear weapons program by hyping the response. But you be the judge. Even if Iran isn’t bluffing, what would prove more costly, an elective attack before they get the H-bomb, or an obligatory...

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The Sunni vs the Shia with Israel in the middle


Eclipsed

U.S. policymakers fear a “Shia crescent,” a regional alliance led by Iran. A dawning “Muslim Brotherhood crescent” is far more threatening.
By Lee Smith, Tablet Mag

Until January of this year, U.S. policymakers and American allies feared what Jordan’s King Abdullah II had dubbed the “Shia crescent.” The thinking was that as Iran’s power grew, this strategic alignment of hostile governments would stretch from the Islamic Republic of Iran, through its ally Syria, on to the newly empowered Shia majority in Iraq, and up to the shores of the eastern Mediterranean where it would reach Hezbollah in Lebanon. But that was before pro-American dictators started to fall like dominoes across the region. What we’re looking at now is what some, like historian Martin Kramer, have called a “Muslim Brotherhood crescent.”

Take a look at the map. In last week’s Tunisian elections, the Islamist al-Nahda Party, once outlawed,...

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What is Really Behind the Yesha Demolitions?

From Moshe Dann, INN

On September 12, Chief Justice Dorit Beinish rendered a highly controversial decision, based on an unwritten policy she had been using, which broke with traditional interpretations of law, yet, the media (with the exception of Arutz Sheva, the Hebrew Makor Rishon and
Besheva ed.) largely ignored it.

In a case brought by Peace Now against neighborhoods (“outposts”) in the Binyamin communities of Eli, called Hayovel, where Eliraz Peretz’s widow and children live and Harisha, in the Talmonim bloc, Justice Beinish directed the State, i.e. Civil Administration for Judea and Samaria, to determine what constitutes State land.

According to her ruling, all land not specifically designated as State Land would henceforth be considered “private land,” by default, rather than unowned land.

She also gave the State 60 days to provide a schedule for destroying all (Jewish) building on “private land,” with the...

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Feith: “Israel Should Be a U.S. Campaign Issue “

By DOUGLAS J. FEITH, WSJ

Pro-Israel organizations have long been active in American politics, promoting friendly relations between the U.S. and Israel. Jewish groups, in particular, have helped ensure that candidates’ attitudes toward Israel would be an important element in congressional and presidential elections. Yet now, two venerable Jewish organizations, the American Jewish Committee (AJC) and the Anti-Defamation League (ADL), are saying that it is improper to do this in the case of President Obama. They have taken the initiative to shield Mr. Obama from the political consequences of his cold treatment of Israel.

The AJC and ADL are jointly promoting a “national pledge for unity on Israel.” Its essence is that “America’s friendship with Israel . . . has always transcended politics” and that “U.S.-Israel friendship should never be used as a political wedge issue.”

Explaining this effort, ADL chief Abraham Foxman lamented...

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2,300 Units Approved in Efrat, Har Homa, Ramot, Maaleh Adumim

These are the same units reported on by YNET. The Governments strategy is use the house construction as a punishment and at the same time it is destroying very small number of units in places further away. This further justifies our position. If there is no deal, we can always rebuild these few units. Also withholding the payments to the PA serve another purpose. It gives us something to give back later in a gesture. Ted Belman

Details emerge of Israeli construction plans approved to punish Abbas for UNESCO move.
By Gil Ronen, INN

Details are emerging of the plans approved by the government Tuesday for new construction in Judea and Samaria, as punishment to the Palestinian Authority (PA) for its unilateral moves to gain UN recognition as a state. The plan was approved by an eight member inner cabinet and is said to be the first installment in a larger plan to be decided upon in the near future. It also includes a freezing of the transfer of funds to the PA under extant...

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Experts warn of PA break up

Aviel Magnezi, YNET

Growing voices in Ramallah calling for the dismantling of the Palestinian Authority due to a political stalemate with Israel have raised concern among Israeli experts, who warn that such a step would force the Jewish State to regain complete control over Palestinian territories.

While they believe the scenario is unrealistic at the moment, the experts warn of far-reaching ramifications should the threat materialize.

Former Shin Bet chief Yaacov Peri told Ynet that the Palestinians are trying to show Israel that the option is on the table, but are not going to go ahead with disbanding the Authority, due to its relative good standing in the West Bank.

“It is a live and kicking entity, which is also successful,” Peri explained, adding that “it manages to maintain law and order in the West Bank and is seen as legitimate by most of the international community – and we can see the results at the United Nations and UNESCO.

“They also managed...

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PM speeds up construction in response to UNESCO vote

Following PA admittance to UN’s cultural agency, Netanyahu orders construction of 2,000 housing units in Jerusalem, other areas he says would remain under Israeli control in future peace agreement

Attila Somfalvi, YNET

The forum of top eight ministers on Tuesday concluded its meeting on Israel’s response to the accession of the Palestinian Authority into UNESCO.

Following the meeting, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed the government to expedite the construction of some 2,000 housing units in Jerusalem, Gush Etzion and Ma’ale Adumim – all areas that he said would remain within Israel’s territory as part of any future arrangement with the Palestinians.

In addition, it was decided to delay the transfer of Palestinian funds to the PA. Jerusalem is also considering revoking the VIP cards of several Palestinian officials and might consider steps against UNESCO’s operations in Israel. The forum members are expected to meet again soon to...

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A Syrian uranium enrichment plant “discovered”


DEBKAfile Special Report November 1, 2011, 1:21 PM (GMT+02:00)

The disclosure Tuesday, Nov. 1, by the International Atomic Energy Agency – that a spinning factor built in the northeastern Syrian town of Hasaka in 2003 was in fact designed for developing nuclear weapons from enriched uranium – had a purpose: It was intended to crowd Bashar Assad into talking to the leaders of the revolt against him instead of slaughtering them. debkafile’s intelligence sources report that Syria procured the enriched uranium and equipment for the plant from Iraq when its ruler Saddam Hussein in early March 2003 when he decided to dispose of the bulk of his nuclear plant and weapons of mass destruction by spiriting them out to Syria, then his closest ally.

The IAEA sources revealed that the Syrian government worked on the secret Hasaka complex with Abdel Qader Khan, father of Pakistan’s atomic bomb, basing it on the same technology he designed for...

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Netanyahu pushes plan to attack Iran

See also, Analysis: What may be involved in an Israeli strike on Iran


Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who previously objected to attacking Iran, was recently persuaded by Netanyahu and Barak to support such a move.
By Zvi Zrahiya, Jonathan Lis, Barak Ravid and Amos Harel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are trying to muster a majority in the cabinet in favor of military action against Iran, a senior Israeli official has said. According to the official, there is a “small advantage” in the cabinet for the opponents of such an attack.

Netanyahu and Barak recently persuaded Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who previously objected to attacking Iran, to support such a move.

Although more than a million Israelis have had to seek shelter during a week of rockets raining down on the south, political leaders have diverted their attention to arguing over a possible war...

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Ted Belman
Jerusalem, Israel