The muted responses of US President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to the matter at the top of their agenda, the IAEA report accusing Iran of building a nuclear weapon program, were in line with the same shared tactics which dictated the report's publication date of Tuesday, Nov. 8. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has put the country on a war footing having decided that the threats by the United States, Israel and NATO members Britain, France, Italy, Germany and Holland to strike Iran's nuclear facilities should be taken with the utmost seriousness. Iran has crossed a critical threshold which the latest International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nuclear agency report from Vienna omitted from the report it circulated Tuesday, Nov. 8: Not only has the Islamic Republic managed to mount nuclear warheads on its Shahab ballistic missiles, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military and intelligence sources report, but the newly-outfitted missiles have been successfully tested four times. This week, the Obama administration fixed its attention on three nations making ominous nuclear waves, Pakistan, Iran and North Korea. Stability and continuity have until now been the traditional watchwords of the Saudi royal house. King Abdullah managed the transition of heir to the throne after the death of Crown Prince Sultan on Oct. 22 with smooth efficiency. The monarch issued the necessary edicts for the handover to Interior MinisterPrince Nayef, his 78-year old half-brother, while still keeping the lid on the succession issue bubbling under the surface of complacent royal stability. November 4, 2011 Briefs
The US and Israeli administrations have worked their way through to an exceptional level of policy coordination in more than one active sphere.
Although in Syria, Bashar Assad has been massacring his people for eight months, the US administration continues to shun military intervention and Israel, which shares a border with Syria, distances itself from its domestic upheaval.
The Obama administration has made the Supreme Military Council ruling Egypt a keystone of its Middle East policy. The Netanyahu government, for its part, treats the Egyptian generals with respect and consideration. Any upsets between Cairo and Jerusalem are handled delicately and with dispatch at the highest levels using Egypt's Intelligence MinisterMurad Mofai and the Israeli intelligence Mossad Director Tamir Pardo as go-betweens.
Obama and Netanyahu are also of one mind over the Palestinian question. And, ahead of military action against Iran, Obama insisted on the Turkish and Israeli prime ministers mending their prickly relations.
And indeed the confrontational tones have disappeared from their discourse. Ankara, for instance, has stopped raising objections to the deal whereby Cyprus and Israel have reserved their oil and gas drilling zones in the eastern Mediterranean.
A harmonious working relationship
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's sources in Washington describe three levels of intensive interaction between the two capitals:
The first is the direct line between the president and the prime minister. Their decisions are handed down to US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who has spent most of the last two months in Washington, for laying out the master planning. This is passed to Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of staff and the IDF Chief of Staff of the IDF, Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, for the next stage.
CIA Director Gen. David Petraeus and Mossad, Military Intelligence and Shin Bet directors, Tamir Pardo, Brig. Aviv Cochavi and Yoram Cohen are briefed on intelligence aspects of the operation.
The planning goes into the smallest details so as to leave nothing to chance.
Those involved are fully aware that they are charting the largest military operation in history against a national nuclear program. The armies of 13 nations will be involved and more may be drawn in at some point.
In addition to the US, Israel and Iran, the planners cite Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Britain, France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Canada, Australia and Saudi Arabia as involved actively or potentially.
The IDF would provide the sharp point of the operation
Next week, Barak has scheduled another of his frequent trips to Washington for a visit of undetermined length. Thursday, Nov. 10, the London Daily Mail revealed that British ministers had been told to expect Israeli military action "as early as Christmas or very early in the new year."
The paper added: "Ministry of Defense sources in London confirmed that contingency plans have been drawn up in the event that the UK decided to support military action."
Although it must be assumed that this report, like other stories appearing in the media these days, was deliberately misleading – particularly with regard to the timeline - it appeared to be signaling that the Cameron government had come aboard.
The final timetable will depend on a host of variables, such as the weather, the position of the moon with respect to tides, storms in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf and the seasonal directions of underwater coastal currents. However, it is generally expected to go forward as expeditiously as possible.
In many ways, President Obama views the NATO operation just ended in Libya, and its focus on air and sea bombardment and actions by small special forces units, as a curtain-raiser for the campaign against Iran – only this time he wants to see not only the US but also other Western allies taking a back seat.
Israel would provide the sharp end of the attack, with the allies providing all the necessary intelligence, logistic and air and missile defense, so as to leave Israel's armed forces (IDF) free to fully focus on the offensive part of the operation.
Days not weeks needed to accomplish the mission
According to some expert assessments, the exercise of IDF might to its fullest extent, with efficient support from Western logistical and intelligence infrastructure should suffice without the need for extra time. If, however, Israel fails to accomplish its missions, then the question of direct US military intervention along with West European armies will arise.
There are two reasons to assume that the Iran operation will be brief:
1. Its purpose is not regime change in Tehran but is limited to disabling Iran's primary nuclear facilities and the command structure of the Revolutionary Guards. US military planners believe the two objectives can be achieved in five days to a week.
2. It is hoped that a blitz campaign if short enough will not draw Syria and Hizballah into the war. Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah will want to see which way the winds of war blow before committing their forces to a confrontation - not just with Israel but with the United States and a host of European armies.
Plan incorporates surprises for Iran
The sympathetic working relationship cultivated between the US president and the Israeli prime minister has not completely dispelled their old mutual distrust. Obama still entertains a lingering suspicion that Netanyahu may at some point act unilaterally, possibly by jumping the gun on the attack, while the Israeli leader fears Obama may pull back at the last minute.
However, according to our sources in Washington and Jerusalem, preparations for the strike are so far advanced and Western allies like Britain, France and Germany so deeply committed, that it is almost impossible for either leader to go off on a unilateral tangent without the other.
At the same time, those sources warn that right up until D-Day, some unforeseen event may not be ruled out for throwing the plan off-course.
Back to Top
Sunday, Nov. 6, two days before the publication of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)'s critical report, Khamenei summoned the regime's top officials and commanders to his office for a tour d'horizon of Iran's readiness for a confrontation.
By taking this stand, the Supreme Leader, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Iranian sources report, put an end to the arguments among three establishment factions over whether the US, Israel and NATO powers were saber-rattling in earnest or faking it to destabilize the regime by scaring 70 million people into believing that a Western offensive was coming down on their heads, brought on by their government's aggressive nuclear policy.
1. The military faction won out over the other two by persuading Khamenei that the Western-Israeli threat is not only genuine but could be realized at any moment. This faction is made up of a formidable array of top military and Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) officers: IRGC chief Gen. Ali Mohammed Jafari, the al Qods Brigades chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the Navy commander Adm. Habibollah Sayyar, Head of the Basij Forces Gen. Nagdio Mohammad-Reza and Commander of Iran's ground forces Gen. Brig. Ahmad-Reza Bourdastan.
Ahmadinejad apocalyptic
He appeared to be advising the Islamic Republic to face up to the inevitable without fear.
2. The position taken by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi at the head of the second faction was that an attack on Iran is not certain but the threat should not be taken lightly. This week, Ahmadinejad maintained that if Iran did not prepare itself for a possible attack, it could face destruction and be thrown back 500 years.
Then, Tuesday, the president gathered his closest advisers around him for an apocalyptic message: "The military showdown with the West and Israel is close. It can no longer be prevented."
3. This faction warned that plunging into reckless action would give the US and Israel a pretext for attacking Iran's nuclear facilities. Tehran must exercise the utmost caution in its responses to avoid giving its enemies cause for war. This group's spokesman isMohammed Reza Qalidaf, the Mayor of Tehran and until five years ago one of the four IRGC top commanders.
The Guards mark 102 US Mid-East targets
Some of the missiles were to be fired from locations outside Iran.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources report he was referring to missiles to be launched from Syria by Iran's surrogates, the Lebanese and Iraqi Hizballlah, as well as al Qods and other cells.
Those missile teams, he reported, were standing by on the Syrian-Iraqi frontier ready for action. The plan is for them to step across the frontier, release their rockets against the US targets listed in their orders and immediately step back into Syria. This stratagem aimed to muddy the sources of the attack.
The IRGC chief also uncovered plans for Iraqi Hizballah fighters to shoot missiles from southern Iraq against the oil fields and terminals of the Persian Gulf emirates and set them on fire.
Those fighters have taken possession of 150 Scuds B and D which were in Iraqi army use up until 2003 and are now maintained in good order by Iranian technicians present in South Iraq under cover.
The Chairman of Iran's Nuclear Energy Agency Fereydoon Abbasi then reviewed his crash operation to transfer all the nuclear testing labs and equipment to underground structures safe from air and missile attack.
Not all the bunkers were finished, Abbasi said. But to save time, the transfers of essential installations had begun this week into unfinished underground chambers. This meant they would not be fully operational for some weeks, if not months.
In Abbasi's view, any US or Israeli operation would also seek to disrupt the country's strategic and civilian infrastructure.
Starting next week, he reported, top nuclear scientists, engineers and technicians would be collected from their homes and hidden in secret facilities for their protection.
Iran has 400 WMD-capable missiles
(British Foreign Secretary William Hague reported to the Commons on June 29, 2011 that Iran had been carrying out "covert ballistic missile tests and rocket launches, including testing missiles capable of delivering a nuclear payload…")
Like the speaker before him, Gen. Hajizadeh stressed the monumental effort his forces had made in recent months to transfer the missiles into underground tunnels and speed up the construction of launching silos.
He reckoned that 5-8 percent of all missile barrages fail on average; another 10-15 percent miss their aim; and an unknown proportion would be intercepted by American, Israel, Saudi or Gulf anti-missile missiles.
But he remained optimistic, certain that hundreds would still reach their targets.
Gen. Hajizadeh added that Hizballah in Lebanon and the Hamas and Jihad Islami in the Gaza Strip would shoot 1,000 more long- and medium-range missiles in the first hours of the war, plus 3,000 short-range rockets such as multiple-rocket Katyushas and mortar rounds.
This barrage would cover every part of Israel.
Twelve military districts
Established in mid-2010 as insurance against the breakdown of authority in one district having a knock-on effect on the others, the system was designed as an obstacle course for curtailing the spread of a popular uprising across the country.
In early 2011, it was converted from civilian to military use as part of a master plan for keeping the various parts of the country independently afloat under foreign military assault.
Navy Commander Adm. Sayyar described how the Iranian fleet was arrayed in the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea in deployments for thwarting Western and Israeli submarine attacks on targets in Iran and safeguarding Its coasts from landings by foreign marine and special forces.
Back to Top
The last test was conducted June 28 under cover of the "Great Prophet 6" war maneuver. This experimental launch tested the missile's performance as well as its targeting accuracy.
The only Western leader to go public on this disquieting news was the British Foreign Secretary William Hague. On June 29, under the impact of that test the day before, he dropped the information on a surprised parliament: "Iran has also been carrying out cover ballistic missile tests and rocket launches, including testing missiles capable of delivering a nuclear payload in contravention of UN Resolution 1929," he said.
But the revelation never went any further. It was not picked up by any American, Western or Israeli official although Hague was a good deal more explicit and his information more up-to-date than the IAEA report.
Nuclear warheads already mounted on missiles – and tested
Two Shahab tests were a success; the Sejil failed.
Shahab-3 Kadar was successfully tested again in June.
All these experiments focused on the performance and accuracy of the nuclear warheads.
Our military sources report that after launching the 27-kilogram Omid earth satellite in February 2009, the Iranians knew they had a missile capable of a 330-kilogram payload capacity.
From June, 2011, Tehran advanced to operational missiles capable of carrying nuclear payloads to any point on the world map. Its nuclear program now concentrates on enhancing their precision.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's intelligence sources stress that Yukiya Amano, head of the UN nuclear agency, agreed to keep those tests and their grave significance dark. It is not by chance that the report he authored covered the state of Iran's nuclear program in 2008 updated to the end of 2009, but no later. Its language on Iran's nuclear missiles is vague, referring to "Documentation of at least 14 progressive design iterations for a missile warhead to deliver an atomic warhead to a distant target.
Time bought for Obama's hard choices
Had the IAEA paper been updated up to 2010 and 2011, it could not have avoided disclosing that the "atomic warhead" had by then matured into the successfully-tested payload of ballistic missiles.
The decision to abbreviate the report was taken, according to our Washington sources, during a secret visit Amano paid to the White House on Oct. 29, 2011. He sat down with National Security Adviser Tom Donilon and together they decided to cut out of the final report the last two years in which Iran's nuclear program matured into a weapon capability – even though they knew this for a fact – so as to buy President Barack Obama another six to ten months for the necessary hard decisions.
After perusing the document, therefore, the Western media were unable to say anything more definite than that the IAEA does not claim Iran has mastered all the necessary technologies or estimate how long it would take for Iran to be able to produce a nuclear weapon.
Although US, British, German, French, Dutch and Israeli intelligence know perfectly well that Iran is already armed with operational nuclear weapons, concealment of this knowledge gives President Obama a free hand to break the news on the world at a time of his choosing.
It also gives Iran time to stage a nuclear test, from which point there is no return.
Back to Top
Saturday, Nov. 5, US intelligence sources alleged Pakistan was ferrying its nuclear bombs, "which are capable of destroying entire cities, in unsecured delivery vans, on congested and often unmarked roads" to hide them from the US.
Had this report appeared in a local Pakistani paper it might have been dismissed as paranoid raving. However it was run in two Washington publications, Atlantic and National Journal, which cited both US and Pakistani intelligence sources. They explained that Islamabad is deeply suspicious that US special forces will soon descend on Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and grab its contents to keep them out of the hands of Taliban or Pakistani extremist organizations close to Al Qaeda.
National Journal put it this way: "US intelligence officials said that Pakistanis were using low security not only to transfer merely 'de-mated' components, but also 'mated' nuclear weapons, raising widespread concerns in the West. Western nuclear experts are all the more worried as Pakistan is now building small tactical nuclear weapons for quick deployment."
Severing Saudi access to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal
The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief, Lt.-Gen. Ahmed Shuja, marked down by Washington for his suspected ties with Taliban and the Haqqani Network, was among the officers who suggested that the episode had evolved from an American plan to strike Iran's nuclear program.
According to that plan, they said, if the US and Israel succeed in demolishing Tehran's nuclear and missile capabilities, Washington would seek to balance the score by severing the access Saudi Arabia gained to a nuclear weapon under the secret defense pact Riyadh signed with Islamabad.
Purloining Pakistan's nuclear arsenal would achieve that objective.
Another view offered was that the Americans were increasingly troubled by the deepening political, economic and military ties between Islamabad and Beijing. They see two Muslim nations on the shores of the Arabian Sea, Iran and Pakistan - both closely allied with China - becoming nuclear powers.
A third suggestion was that the seizure of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal by the US would serve Tehran as a vivid demonstration of what it can expect for refusing to drop its nuclear ambitions.
Russia and China show the flag for Pakistan and Iran
"Insight to what their thoughts may be is very limited. It's a closed society," Swift said.
"That's a concern to me because I could not guess where any decision will be going with respect to North Korea."
The Seventh Fleet commander's comments sparked an alert in the North Korean air force and navy.
Standing on the sidelines and watching American moves and Pakistan's responses was the Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
Two days after the publication of the reports alleging a US plan to seize Pakistan's nuclear arsenal - which incidentally no member of the Obama administration contradicted – Putin warmly endorsed Pakistan's membership of the exclusive Shanghai Cooperation Organization at its meeting of prime ministers in the Russian city of St. Petersburg.
Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Reza Gilani had been personally invited to the session by the Russian prime minister.
Putin also approved Gilani's proposals for joint trade and energy projects and agreed to shell out $500 million to finance the CASA-1000 project for providing power transmission from three SCO members, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, to Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The SCO has emerged as a powerful instrument for countering US influence in Russian and Chinese spheres of influence, its economic advantages coming into play increasingly in a period of global recession.
Moscow and Beijing are now backing Iran solidly against the United States and the West. After declaring firmly they would block new UN Security Council sanctions against Iran notwithstanding the findings of the UN Nuclear Agency, both are preparing to promote the Islamic Republic from observer to full membership of the Shanghai Organization alongside Pakistan.
Back to Top
But he left unaddressed the pressing demand in royal backrooms to begin passing key government posts out of the hands of the long-lived senior princes to the next generation; instead of watching the plum jobs being passed from ageing half-brother to half-brother, the grandsons of the dynasty's founding father say its is time to open the door and let them in.
Prince Nayef often stood in for Crown Prince Sultan as Minister of Defense and Aviation during his long absences for medical treatment. But on Nov. 5, the king transferred the portfolio away from the new heir and split it in two, handing the defense portfolio to another half-brother, the Governor of Riyadh Prince Salman, 76, and Aviation to Prince Fahd bin Abdullah bin Muhammad, who is not descended from the founder but is the king's son-in-law.
The monarch himself retained control over King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy near Riyadh which is named for him. It is there that the secret Saudi nuclear program is located. To keep control of this program, the king refrained from handing it over to the Defense Ministry and the armed forces. Abdullah's death would therefore automatically transfer Abdullah City and its nuclear program to his successor, Crown Prince Nayef.
The new Saudi leaders face two imponderables over Iran
Right now, they are confronted with two imponderables:
1. Will the US and/or Israel conduct a military offensive against Iran? If so, Saudi rulers will have to decide very quickly whether to join the operation in consideration of likely reprisals from Tehran;
2. If the US and Israel decide against attacking Iran, will Saudi Arabia lead the Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) nations in a pre-emptive assault on Iran's nuclear installations? Riyadh recently kicked off a military interventionist policy by sending troops and tanks into Bahrain to foil Iranian-backed Hizballah support for the Shiite revolt against the throne.
In the West, Israel is considered the leading candidate for a unilateral attack on Iran. The possibility of Saudi Arabia leading a GCC operation has escaped general notice - partly because, as DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Saudi experts note, Prince Nayef's views on foreign relations are still an enigma.
It was only in the last two years, when he began filling in for Sultan as defense minister, that the new crown prince began to establish regular contacts with foreign statesmen. Until then, his only foreign relations consisted of cooperation with American intelligence officials in the liquidation of al Qaeda cells in the kingdom or else with GCC colleagues.
Nayef is expected to be tough on Iran
As heir to the throne, Nayef will most certainly carry on Riyadh's traditional reliance on the United States, but the degree of intimacy he may seek is anyone's guess. If Nayef opts for close relations with Washington, he will be able to avail himself of the close contacts the new defense minister Salman developed with Washington figures in the line of past duties and his natural inclinations.
All in all, the Nayef-Salman duo may be expected to lead the kingdom to a clearer and more incisive Gulf and Middle East policy, albeit influenced heavily by the new heir to the throne's conservative nature and closeness to the clerical establishment.
Nayef, though normally taciturn, was heard using harsh language about Iran and Shiite ambitions. He was quoted recently as stating he "is against any compromise with Iran." He also backed the Saudi expedition force which rescued the Bahraini throne from a Shiite-dominated uprising.
However, there is no telling for now whether the crown prince's tough approach to a nuclear-armed Iran will lead the kingdom to closer military cooperation with the United States, or invite the US to establish a military presence in the kingdom in defiance of the religious establishment which is against any alien feet on Saudi soil.
New Saudi leaders' foreign relations up in the air
King Abdullah was persuaded by his national security adviser,Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who manages combined Arab intelligence operations for the Arab spring, to allow US Predator drones to take up position at the big Hamis Mushayt air base in southern Saudi Arabia near the Yemeni frontier.
Salman is likely to add his voice to that of Bandar and advocate a larger US military presence in the kingdom as a military shield against Iran's nuclear weapons.
At the same time, Nayef and Salman may decide not to neglect developing a unilateral nuclear weapons option independent of the United States.
To achieve this, Riyadh would need to turn to America's rivals, Pakistan and China. If Egypt were to achieve regime stability, it would be invited to join the Saudi enterprise and the nuclear race evolving in the Middle East in Iran's wake. But Turkey would be ruled out by the two princes, although Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan recently informed Washington that if Iran acquired a nuclear weapon, Turkey would follow suit.
Back to Top
• China urges Iran to slow nuclear flexibility and cooperate with IAEA. FM spokesman: The last thing the Mid East needs now is the use of force.
• Surgery at Haifa Rambam hospital removes 7 shrapnel fragments from Gilad Shalit's arm.
Nasrallah: Hizballah can fight Israel without Iran or Syria
4 Nov. The Lebanese Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah has briefed his unit commanders on operational plans for firing 10,000 rockets at Tel Aviv and hitting Israel's air force and reserve mobilization bases in a surprise attack, DEBKAfile's military sources report. "The Zionist enemy cannot stand up to a salvo on that scale," he said and assured them that Hizballah is capable of fighting Israel without Iranian or Syrian help.
To boost morale, Nasrallah disclosed the delivery of advanced weapons from Libya and unveiled plans to capture parts of Galilee.
A Hizballah purchasing mission in Tripoli and Benghazi bought the weapons from military units making up the National Transitional Council ruling Libya. Iranian and Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood agents were on hand to pay for the merchandise on the spot.
The Hizballah chief mad a point of warning unit commanders to beware of American and Israeli spies who constantly try to penetrate their ranks. So far, they have not been able to locate the militia's secret rocket-launching facilities.
November 5, 2011 Briefs
• Tension rising on Israel-Gazan border. After Grad exploded near Ashkelon Friday night, Israeli chopper hit another Jihad Islami missile team about to fire. One killed.
• Pakistan moves nuclear weapons to new hiding-places for fear of US attempt to dismantle its nuclear arsenal, the Atlantic and National Journal jointly report.
• President Peres: The military option for Iran is closer today than the diplomatic one.
• Syrian forces kill 23 protesters after Assad committed to Arab League peace deal.
• Millions of Muslims start annual pilgrimage to Mecca.
November 6, 2011 Briefs
• Israeli armed forces and intelligence websites crash. Only open sites affected. IDF spokesman denied cyber-attack, claimed malfunction of servers. Group of hackers threatened to attack Israeli government computers after Gaza flotilla intercepted Friday.
• US and Israel getting set for biggest military drill in their history early next year. Some 5,000 US and Israeli troops will take part.
• Last week Israeli air force conducted join drills at Italian NATO base with Germany and Italy.
• Condoleezza Rice: US should do everything possible to bring Iran regime down – ABC. Never take military option off the table, says former US Secy of State.
• Three bomb blasts kill at least 8 people in Shurja, one of Baghdad's main markets.
• Another two missiles fired from Gaza exploded south of Ashkelon early Sunday. Israeli air force struck second Palestinian missile team Saturday night.
If attacked, Tehran threatens four Iranian missiles to kill a million Israelis
6 Nov. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) new agency Fars headlined a threat Sunday, Nov. 6: Four Iranian missiles can destroy tiny Israel, said the paper in Tehran's first reaction to the flood of conflicting reports about a possible Israel attack on Iran's nuclear sites. The writer is close to Supreme Ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. However, says DEBKAfile, Iran's leaders are divided on their assessment of the seriousness of an Israeli or American military threat to their nuclear program.
According to those sources the experiences of the Gulf war show that this number of ordinary missiles could not cause anything like the damage calculated by the writer. What Zarey may be referring to are the stubborn rumors going around Western intelligence circles since early 2005 that during the breakup of the Soviet Union, Tehran laid hands on black market nuclear cruise missiles form the Ukraine and 3 to 5 more from Belarus.
US sources: Israel ministers who opposed Iran strike are now for it
6 Nov. American sources told Fox News early Sunday, Nov. 6 that all the senior Israeli ministers who were formerly against attacking Iran's nuclear sites are now for it after receiving updates proving that Iran already has a nuclear weapon. The ministers believe that new sanctions would not be tough enough. DEBKAfile: Washington's uncritical references to Israeli plans signal Tehran that because of the level it has reached in its weapons-geared nuclear program, the US can no longer hold Israel back from exercising its military option.
And so after ten days after feverish, unattributed Israeli news reporting on an imminent attack, the administration has drawn certain lines: Israel should go forward with its plans to strike Iran, while Washington will stress "diplomatic strategy."
This phrase, new to official US comments on the nuclear controversy with Iran, does not rule out the military option. All in all, public US administration comments on Israel taking military action on Iran in own its hands have been unusually mild.
November 7, 2010 Briefs
• Netanyahu: No settlement construction on anyone's private land. He added: The 2,000 new housing units ordered expedited last week "will remain Israel's sovereign territory in any agreement.
• Israeli tank fire stopped Palestinians rigging explosives on Gaza-Israeli border fence. The Palestinians report three injured.
• Labor court reduces Israel's general strike to first two working hours of Monday. Trade unions federation declared strike on behalf of uncontracted hired workers.
How US and Israel let Iran get a nuclear weapon
7 Nov. New revelations from US intelligence sources confirm day by day that Iran has attained a nuclear weapon capability: Implosion experiments at Parchin were uncovered Sunday; the six-year old ability to build detonators for triggering a nuclear chain reaction was reported Monday. Stuxnet which invaded Natanz in June 2010 delayed but did not derail Iran's forward march towards a weapon. The US president and Israeli prime minister vowed never to let Iran attain a nuclear capability. So what are they going to do now?
Monday, Nov. 7, a Russian nuclear expert Vyacheslav Danilenko was named as having taught the Iranians how to build the R265 generator used for the implosion in the Parchin experiment.
Since by 2005, Danilenko was back home in Russia, Iran must be concluded to have mastered the critical nuclear detonation technology as far back as six years ago and for six years, US and Israeli governments have kept their people in ignorance of Iran's nuclear menace.
November 8, 2011 Briefs
• Qassam missile fired at Sderot Tuesday night explodes on empty ground.
• Key Security Council committee fails to reach consensus on Palestinian application for UN statehood.
• Medvedev: Increasing anti-Iranian rhetoric could lead to Mid East catastrophe.
• High Iranian Guards commander threatens to kill dozens of American commanders if the US kills one of theirs.
• Ahmadinejad: If America confronts Iran it will regret the response. He branded IAEA head an "American pawn".
• Thousands of Jewish pilgrims congregate at Rachel's Tomb, Bethlehem for her commemoration.
• Syrian troops move into Homs residential district Monday night after 6 days of tank shelling, scores dead.
Obama flips on crippling sanctions, leaves Israel, Saudis facing Iran
8 Nov. US President Barack Obama is backing away from crippling sanctions on Iran's central bank and an embargo on its oil trade. This happened shortly before the International Atomic Energy Agency was due to confirm Tuesday or Wednesday, Nov. 8-9 that Iran's clandestine military nuclear program had reached the point of no-return, and after Israel intelligence experts found that only a decision in Tehran separated Iran from the ability to build a weapon.
Obama was swayed by three considerations:
1) Because it is too late; 2) Because sanctions on Iran's financial and oil transactions would disrupt the world's oil markets and economies; 3) Because Russia and China would cast their vetoes at the Security Council.
Israel's defense minister Ehud Barak stressed that Israel's existence was not at stake either from Iran's missile or Hizballah's rockets. In the last resort, Israel must make its own decisions about preserving its security, but he promised they would be made responsibly.
After IAEA report, Israel says military option can wait for sanctions
The UN nuclear watchdog (IAEA) began circulating is much-awaited Iran report Tuesday night, Nov. 11 to Security Council and IAEA board members. According to the first leaks, the agency has no doubt that Iran is working on developing atomic weapons: Its clandestine computer-simulated and practical tests on nuclear detonators, uranium enrichment at hidden sites and tests for adapting nuclear warheads to missiles have no explanation other than work on components for a nuclear weapon.
Israel's initial response is to give sanctions a last change and hold its military option in abeyance for the weeks needed to put them in place, so long as they are tough enough to disrupt Iran's central bank and its oil industry. However, the Obama administration has already foresworn these penalties.
DEBKAfile reported earlier Tuesday.
Second Iranian threat to destroy Israel names Dimona reactor
9 Nov. For the second time in four days, Iran has threatened to annihilate Israel. Sunday, Nov. 6, Tehran said four missiles would be enough to kill a million Israelis. Wednesday, Nov. 9, Gen. Masoud Jazyeri, deputy commander of Iran's armed forces, said an American or Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would not only result in the Jewish state's extinction - "Dimona is the most accessible target" - but generate a response that "would not be limited to the Middle East."
DEBKAfile's Iranian sources report this muscle-flexing is a sign of mounting edginess in Tehran as the debate in the United States and Israel over the need for a military operation against Iran gains momentum in the light of the UN nuclear agency (IAEA)'s exposure of its nuclear program as weapon-focused.
November 10, 2011 Briefs
• Khamenei: Anyone thinking to attack Iran should get ready for a strong slap and an iron fist.
• Israel's Supreme Court rejects ex-president Moshe Katsav's appeal against his conviction for rape and sexual harassment and seven-year sentence. Katzav begins serving time on Dec. 7 ending his five-year legal battle.
• Egypt's natural gas supply to Israel and Jordan halted for seventh time by sabotage. A remote-controlled explosive device set the Sinai pipeline on fire 30 km south of El Arish.
• US official: Several Arab rulers offered Bashar Assad asylum to quit Syria.
• France and Germany open talks on a new slimmed-down European bloc to replace the European Union, financial sources report.
UK expects Israeli attack on Iran next month with US logistical support
10 Nov. British government ministers have been told to expect Israeli military action in the wake of the UN watchdog report "as early as Christmas or very early in the new year," the London Daily Mail reported Thursday, Nov. 10. They were told Israel would strike Iran's nuclear sites "sooner rather than later" – with "logistical support" from the US. A major US concern is said to be that a nuclear-armed Iran would spur the Saudi Arabia and Turkey into developing their own weapons.
Saturday, 12 November 2011
Vol. 11, Issue 516, November 11, 2011
A US-Israel Attack on Iran
The Odd Couple in the Lead - Obama and Netanyahu
Barack Obama and Binyamin Netanyahu
Iran Set for Payback
Ayatollah Khamenei Puts Revolutionary Guards in War Mode
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Well over the Threshold
Iran's Nuclear Warheads Were Edited out of the Nuclear Agency Report
US Seeks Clean Nuclear Sweep
As Moscow Snags Iran and Pakistan to Boost anti-US Economic Bloc
The Oil Kingdom's Enigmatic New Lineup
Next Saudi Rulers Must Already Grapple with a Nuclear-Armed Iran
Prince Nayef
HOT POINTS
A Digest of DEBKAfile Round-the-Clock Exclusives in the Week Ending November 10, 2011
Posts
