Thursday 23 August 2012 Thursday 23 August 2012 Thursday 23 August 2012 Thursday 23 August 2012
Eurocrash: "I want Europe" campaign
A propaganda campaign in Germany to garner support for the European Union is unprecedented and the fact that one is considered necessary is an indication of quite how desperate the situation has become, with the foundations determined to counter the eurosceptic mood.
The campaign kicks off with a website offering a number of videos, including one from Angela Merkel.
The organisers call themselves Engagierten Europäer (Committed Europeans), with links to theEuropean Movement. They asserts that, in times of crisis, Germany must focus on its role as an engine of European integration.
This is not about submerging national interests, they say. A pro-European leadership is in the best interest of Germany as an industrial nation and a member of the international community. Only in a strong Europe can Germany play a supporting role in today's world. Germany is indispensable to the European project, they add.
Recruiting "European volunteers", they have arranged for the delivery of an open letter to Wolfgang Schäuble, stating that "Germany was and is a major beneficiary of political and economic integration of Europe".
Through Europe, the letter says, Germany found the way back into the community after the second world war. Exports to the internal market have encouraged the German economic miracle. Peaceful reunification was only possible through our involvement in Europe. The political gain for Germany in the European Union by far exceeds any integration costs.
Thus, further European integration is in the best interest of our citizens as Germans and Europeans, the letter concludes. This is the time when Germany has to show that its future is in a strong and united European Union.
Whether the German people will buy this message remains to be seen - but the idea that further integration is not submerging national interest may be hard to take for the less committed Europeans.
COMMENT THREAD
Richard North 23/08/2012 Eurocrash: a "moon strategy"
In politics, he says, there sometimes comes a time when you cannot solve a problem, so you decide to push it aside and instead talk about the moon or Mars, he says. So it is with the euro-crisis.
In none of the previous attempts at a solution has the real problem been addresed, he complains, namely, "that the competitiveness of the German economy surpasses that of other countries by orders of magnitude, all of which share the same currency with Germany".
This, Orbán declares, is leading to a huge trade gap to Germany's advantage - and to the detriment of other countries. Yet, all we get from the Brussels crisis management documents is talk of a banking union, of political legitimacy and the good Lord knows what else. In politics we call it a "moon strategy", he says.
However, some might think Orbán's thinking is too narrow. So far, the "colleagues" seem to be adopting not so much a moon as a "planet" strategy, as in "on another …". But, it’s a reasonable enough contribution. At least it could be taken to suggest that the "colleagues" are not on this planet.
COMMENT THREAD
Richard North 23/08/2012 Eurocrash: forming a judgement
The debt crisis is threatening the survival of the EU, and which he currenly thinks the EU will survive, this can only be if the collpase of the euro is delayed no longer. Europeans, he says, should allow the eurozone to break up, even if it is costly.
Thus, in the space of less than 24-hours, we have two prominent economists with diametrically opposing views. It is tempting here to split the difference, or shrug one's shoulders, make a joke about economists laid end-to-end, and walk away. But one can also form a judgement as to the merits of the respective arguments.
And, while Posen's case is simplistic - almost child-like - a detailed look at Roubini makes his pitch eminently plausible. Just consider, he says, what must be overcome:economic divergence and deepening recessions; irreversible balkanisation of the banking system and financial markets; unsustainable debt burdens for public and private agents; daunting growth and balance-sheet costs in countries that pursue internal devaluation and deflation to restore competitiveness; asymmetrical adjustment, with moral-hazard risks in the core and insufficient financing in the periphery fuelling incompatible political dynamics; fickle and impatient markets and investors; austerity fatigue in the periphery and bailout fatigue in the core; the absence of conditions for an optimal currency area; and serious difficulties in achieving full fiscal, banking, economic, and political union.
The whole, taken in its totality, presents a daunting picture, while the last phrases demonstrate a healthy appreciation of the political realities, which must be factored into any scenario.
This, then, is persuasive, and can be relied upon. What must not be done is over-interpret a single indicator, as with Reuters reporting "rare optimism" on financial markets that the European Union - especially the European Central Bank - is poised for decisive action on the euro zone debt crisis.
Yet, that is precisely what Ben Chu of the Independent has done, asserting in today's edition that "the outlook is brighter".
The sense of impending doom has drained from financial markets, he writes, putting this down to "a perceived breakthrough at the European Central Bank". This is the Draghi plan to do whatever was needed to keep the euro together. Now, even if Greece does default, says Chu, many investors think that the broader union would be likely to survive.
At least Chu hedges his bets, acknowledging that details of Draghi's plan "have yet to be revealed". But he then fails to realise that the very market optimism on which he relies is thus floating on thin air. It is entirely without substance.
Putting it all together, the conclusion must go with Roubini. The euro is domed – one just wishes they would get a move on and be done with it.
COMMENT THREAD
Richard North 23/08/2012 Eurocrash: money back guarantee
Then we ended the day with the bulk of the media cribbing off Süddeutsche Zeitung, all about plucky Samaras … this time giving his personal guarantee that the Huns would get their euros back. The "money-back guarantee" was Spiegel's choice of phrase.
I did warn you yesterday that you weren't going to get anything more than theatre, and you really do wonder what yesterday was all about. Right from the beginning, it was already obvious that the nothing was going to happen until the troika report was ready in September, so neither Merkel nor Samaras were going to have anything substantive to offer.
Then, lo and behold! After all the action, the Gruaniad closed the day with a report telling us that Greece's hopes of being granted more time "have received a setback when EU leaders refused to make a decision until next month".
Merkel and Juncker, we were gravely advised, "both warned that Greece's future depends on the verdict of its troika of lenders, who will announce in September whether Athens is meeting the terms of its existing bailout programme". This is from a newspaper that has just shed 16 percent of its circulation in a year, and lost £76.6 million doing it. You can see why.
And now we move on to the Merkel and Hollande show - or should we call it the Merlande show? That's going to be more theatre - Le Monde describes it as at the "centre of a diplomatic ballet" - so stand by to be entertained. You will certainly struggle to be better informed.
COMMENT THREAD
Richard North 23/08/2012
Thursday, 23 August 2012
Posts
