Analysis
Protesters hold tank-shaped banners that read 'Put Leo in chains' to demonstrate against sales of the German-built Leopard-2 tank to Saudi Arabia in Duesseldorf on October 26, 2012. (Daniel Naupold/AFP/Getty Images)
Is Germany Getting Ready to Re-Arm?
April 24, 2013
| Security
| Europe, Middle East and North Africa
Summary
Germany’s rapid increase in arms sales to Arab states in the Persian Gulf is a sign of its efforts to protect defense jobs and diversify its customer base. But it also portends a changing military culture in Germany. Chancellor Angela Merkel is betting that the electorate is more accepting of a Germany that is able to wield military might instead of relying solely on peaceful conflict resolution. Is she right? Is Germany ready to re-arm?
Public opinion and opposition parties are opposed to arms exports to the Middle East, but Chancellor Merkel does not seem to mind. She may be focusing on legacy building in the realm of national security and foreign policy by building her own “Merkel Doctrine” that supports a balance of power against Iran by sending arms to Israel and Sunni Arab states. A more robust use of the military and additional force modernization and other army reforms are also part of this doctrine.
Background
Germany is the world’s third largest weapons dealer, according to the 2013 military spending database from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). In the five years between 2008 and 2012, SIPRI found that Germany made up 7 percent of total global arms sales.
Germany’s weapons sales to European countries have slowed down recently because of cuts in defense spending among EU members, but the country’s defense contractors have made up the difference by targeting the Middle East for new sales. Germany sold nearly $2 billion worth of arms to the six-country Gulf Cooperation Council in 2012 – more than a 100 percent increase from the year before, according to Munich’s Süddeutsche Zeitung.
The German Leopard main battle tank, made by defense giants Krauss-Maffei Wegmann and Rheinmetall, is very popular in the Middle East. Qatar just bought 62 advanced Leopard 2s and 24 self-propelled howitzers, according to United Press International. SIPRI ranks both German companies in its list of the top 100 largest defense firms in the world. Der Spiegel magazine estimates the German defense industry provides approximately 80,000 jobs.
In 2011, Germany sent Saudi Arabia 260 Leopard 2 tanks in 2011, according to Der Spiegel, including over 100 Boxer armored personnel carriers. Now the Saudis want 270 additional Leopards and more Boxers.
Saudi Arabia, the number one purchaser of German arms in the Middle East, also bought patrol boats worth over $1 billion from a shipbuilder based in Bremen. According to Britain’s The Independent on February 22, 2013, Saudi Arabia spent “nine times the amount it spent the year before” on German arms.
Germany also reportedly sells arms to United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Algeria, Oman, Bahrain, and Israel. A company owned by Rheinmetall is even considering building a plant in Algeria to build its brand of Fuchs armored personnel carriers, according to UPI.
German Law Restricts Arms Sales to War Zones
Most German governments over the years have followed a policy of not selling weapons to countries that are suspected of human rights abuses. Technically, Germany is forbidden from executing arms deals with countries that are located in conflict zones. “No weapons may be exported if there is a risk that they could be involved in human rights violations or stoke existing crises,” according to Deutsche Welle in July 2012.
Every arms deal must be approved beforehand by a committee called the “Federal Security Council” that is made up of Chancellor Angela Merkel and eight of her cabinet members. The Federal Security Council meets in secret and usually keeps controversial arms deals under wraps until they are announced to the public – often after the negotiations have already concluded and the deal has been closed.
Critics in opposition parties such as the Greens and the Social Democratic Party believe this process is not transparent and that Merkel is violating German law by approving arms transfers to totalitarian Middle East regimes who may be using German arms to oppress their people.
Mixed German Public Opinion on Arms Exports and Military Intervention
According to an opinion survey conducted by Stern magazine in June 2012, 75 percent of Germans said they were against arms sales to Saudi Arabia. Germans were similarly united against the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. Annual polls by Pew Research on global attitudes have revealed that 73 percent of Germans questioned in 2011 and 2012 have a favorable view of the United Nations.
However, some segments of the German population are actually warming to military intervention. According to a poll from the German Marshall Fund, at least 50 percent of the public said the 2011 NATO air campaign in Libya was needed. A Pew survey in 2012 noted that while 41 percent of the German public could live with a nuclear Iran, many others would disapprove of Iran building a nuclear device.
Germany is the world’s third largest weapons dealer, according to the 2013 military spending database from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). In the five years between 2008 and 2012, SIPRI found that Germany made up 7 percent of total global arms sales.
Germany’s weapons sales to European countries have slowed down recently because of cuts in defense spending among EU members, but the country’s defense contractors have made up the difference by targeting the Middle East for new sales. Germany sold nearly $2 billion worth of arms to the six-country Gulf Cooperation Council in 2012 – more than a 100 percent increase from the year before, according to Munich’s Süddeutsche Zeitung.
The German Leopard main battle tank, made by defense giants Krauss-Maffei Wegmann and Rheinmetall, is very popular in the Middle East. Qatar just bought 62 advanced Leopard 2s and 24 self-propelled howitzers, according to United Press International. SIPRI ranks both German companies in its list of the top 100 largest defense firms in the world. Der Spiegel magazine estimates the German defense industry provides approximately 80,000 jobs.
In 2011, Germany sent Saudi Arabia 260 Leopard 2 tanks in 2011, according to Der Spiegel, including over 100 Boxer armored personnel carriers. Now the Saudis want 270 additional Leopards and more Boxers.
Saudi Arabia, the number one purchaser of German arms in the Middle East, also bought patrol boats worth over $1 billion from a shipbuilder based in Bremen. According to Britain’s The Independent on February 22, 2013, Saudi Arabia spent “nine times the amount it spent the year before” on German arms.
Germany also reportedly sells arms to United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Algeria, Oman, Bahrain, and Israel. A company owned by Rheinmetall is even considering building a plant in Algeria to build its brand of Fuchs armored personnel carriers, according to UPI.
German Law Restricts Arms Sales to War Zones
Most German governments over the years have followed a policy of not selling weapons to countries that are suspected of human rights abuses. Technically, Germany is forbidden from executing arms deals with countries that are located in conflict zones. “No weapons may be exported if there is a risk that they could be involved in human rights violations or stoke existing crises,” according to Deutsche Welle in July 2012.
Every arms deal must be approved beforehand by a committee called the “Federal Security Council” that is made up of Chancellor Angela Merkel and eight of her cabinet members. The Federal Security Council meets in secret and usually keeps controversial arms deals under wraps until they are announced to the public – often after the negotiations have already concluded and the deal has been closed.
Critics in opposition parties such as the Greens and the Social Democratic Party believe this process is not transparent and that Merkel is violating German law by approving arms transfers to totalitarian Middle East regimes who may be using German arms to oppress their people.
Mixed German Public Opinion on Arms Exports and Military Intervention
According to an opinion survey conducted by Stern magazine in June 2012, 75 percent of Germans said they were against arms sales to Saudi Arabia. Germans were similarly united against the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003. Annual polls by Pew Research on global attitudes have revealed that 73 percent of Germans questioned in 2011 and 2012 have a favorable view of the United Nations.
However, some segments of the German population are actually warming to military intervention. According to a poll from the German Marshall Fund, at least 50 percent of the public said the 2011 NATO air campaign in Libya was needed. A Pew survey in 2012 noted that while 41 percent of the German public could live with a nuclear Iran, many others would disapprove of Iran building a nuclear device.
Analysis
LIGNET believes there are two main reasons for the German defense export growth in the Middle East. First, Chancellor Angela Merkel needs to protect the German defense industry by adding Middle East countries as customers.
This military industrial policy achieves more German market share by replacing stingy European defense ministers who are cutting back on their arms purchases due to budget shortfalls. Instead, German defense contractors are targeting the Arab world’s deep pockets and its propensity to buy weapons systems for prestige reasons. This partially explains how the biggest customers for German weapons in the Gulf Cooperation Council are Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Second, Merkel is pursuing a defense strategy that the German media is calling the “Merkel Doctrine.” This entails Germany’s support of Sunni Arab governments balanced against a potentially nuclear Iran. The doctrine also steadfastly supports Israel in the region, especially after the Arab Spring disruption placed newly unstable countries such as Syria and Egypt at Israel’s doorstep.
Merkel even recently told Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that she would stop a planned sale of German submarines to Egypt if it appeared that Mohamed Morsi’s government would ever threaten Israel in some way. Israel also buys submarines from Germany.
Africa is now a region that Germany is paying attention to, mainly because of France’s military intervention in Mali and the higher propensity of al-Qaeda franchises operating in Libya, Algeria, and Nigeria.
Merkel’s approval ratings are high – 68 percent at last count in a poll by German broadcaster ARD this month. She faces election this year and is running against a relatively weak opponent from the Social Democrats. So she has some political capital to burn.
However, it is puzzling to some observers that her doctrine entails risky maneuvers in national security and foreign policy. Her arms export policy to the Middle East is unpopular. The way she has been deciding and approving the arms deals is generally considered sketchy by the public. Her opponents have a point. Legally, Merkel is on thin ice. It would appear that many of the arms sales to Arab countries do not fully comply with German arms export restrictions.
Merkel may be sensing a change in the mood of the electorate and adopting a new German national security strategy in an effort to be seen as a modern Bismarck. The idealistic “peace at all costs” orthodoxy in German politics is slowly giving way to something more pragmatic. Germans are generally beginning to accept that their government needs to take a more muscular role in foreign policy.
The change in attitudes has surely come about in part because of Germany’s higher profile as a global leader during the European debt crisis. But it does seem that the public is giving in to the idea of Germany using its military for certain types of conflict that go beyond the army’s effort in Afghanistan, which was a very limited and mostly non-combat operation.
Surprisingly, a majority of the public thought the NATO Libyan campaign was a good idea and this could be a signal that Germany could play a bigger part in future NATO interventions.
The Germans are also changing their national security policy by choosing a smaller, all-volunteer army among other reforms. The air force is considering buying armed drones from Israel. Berlin may be looking at the U.S. model of conducting its defense strategy primarily with special operations forces and drone attacks to limit casualties.
Conclusion
German views on war and peace are slowly evolving and the higher rate of arms sales to the Middle East is pushing a reluctant public to confront its fears of militarism. Some voters are embracing the notion of Germany as a stronger world power and leader. Others still have problems with the perception of their country becoming militarized. Exporting arms to Middle East countries such as Saudi Arabia and others who are seen as authoritarian is still not the most popular policy. But Angela Merkel has an eye on building her legacy and part of this is making Germany a strong coalition partner against Iran in the Middle East. She senses that public opinion on the use of the military may be pivoting to favor a more vigorous concept known as the Merkel Doctrine.
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