EU politics: Germans support the euro?
Tuesday 9 April 2013
 According to the poll, carried out by the Forsa Institute, 69 percent of Germans are in favour of keeping the new money. Only 27 percent want to return to the D-Mark. Yet in 2012, half of all Germans surveyed wanted to ditch the euro. The results mean, of course, that there is a significant minority opposed to the continuation of the single currency, and there could be some relationship between the 27 percent who are opposed, and the 24 percent who would support the AFD, which has as its main policy platform the ditching of the euro. However, such polls are notoriously unreliable, and it is an odd thing that results can often reflect the biases of the groups commissioning the polls. The context of the questioning is crucial, but also the method of sampling and the sample structure are amongst those things that can affect the result. Here also, the Forsa Institute is not without controversy, and any results from this organisation might well be suspect. But, even if everything is above board, there is a very different dynamic to polls when there is no immediate prospect of change. Thus, since dumping the euro is not on the mainstream political agenda in Germany, and there is no likelihood in the near future of the question being put, people might be expected to respond differently from a situation where their choices might take effect. What the current poll also fails to do is show how firm the sentiment is, or how it relates to political preferences. For instance, while FDP supporters seem to show a high level of support for the euro in this poll (83 percent), some 46 percent also professed to supporting the AFD – the highest level of any political party. With a highly volatile financial situation though, and a general election in the offing, it is not unreasonable to posit that sentiment could change very rapidly, and more so if the AFD gets organised and succeeds in the election. Thus, while the Forsa poll is of some interest, it doesn't really tell us very much. Euro support within Germany is not yet a key issue. What happens of the periphery, in Cyprus and Portugal, for instance, is more important for the moment. COMMENT THREAD Richard North 09/04/2013 |
Thatcher: the two faces
Tuesday 9 April 2013
 Thatcher herself failed to see its significance, declaring to the Commons after she had returned from Luxembourg, where the treaty had been agreed: I am constantly saying that I wish they would talk less about European and political union. These terms are not understood in this country. In so far as they are understood over there, they mean a good deal less than some people over here think they mean.But if Thatcher was not on her guard, neither was Parliament. When the Act came to be ratified, the necessary Bill amending the European Communities Act 1972 was pushed through a thinly attended Commons in just six days. The main debate was scheduled to begin on a Thursday, in the knowledge that MPs would be reluctant to see it prolonged lest it encroach on their weekend. After only three sessions of the Committee Stage, the Government abruptly curtailed any further discussion by passing a "guillotine" motion. On the final reading, so few MPs turned up that the Bill was passed by a mere 149 votes to 43. Apart from a tiny minority from both Labour and Tory benches, few MPs appreciated that this was what even Hugo Young would later agree was a "major constitutional measure". Peter Tapsell, an unrepentant eurosceptic who within a few years would be prominent in opposing the Maastricht Treaty, later spoke for not a few of his colleagues in recalling how they had eventually become "ashamed" at having voted for it. "We really didn't give it the attention we should have done", he said.
Whatever criticism there might have been of Margaret Thatcher, she was not on her own.
COMMENT: THATCHER COMBINED THREAD Richard North 09/04/2013 |
EU politics: Thatcher's last call
Monday 8 April 2013
 There was Mr Cameron embarked upon a European blitz, visiting Spain, France and Germany, intent on seeking reform of the very institutions which Lady Thatcher had already dismissed as "unreformable", and he is called back to attend upon her, leaving unsaid his messages to the European statesmen whom he had planned to meet. In casting her last spell on EU politics, the very thing that brought her down, Thatcher has perhaps spared David Cameron a degree of embarrassment. For, while he seeks – as far as he can – to convey his euroscepticism to his domestic audience, the image abroad is one of unremitting europhilia. And the longer his European tour, the greater was the chance of him being found out. Certainly, there was a marked contrast this morning between the domestic and foreign press. While The Daily Telegraph, for instance, headlined, "EU failings can't be 'brushed under the carpet', David Cameron to tell leaders", Süddeutsche Zeitung headed an exclusive interview with, "Cameron is committed to Europe". Then, while the Daily Mail has Cameron saying, "UK support for EU membership is wafer-thin", the Spanish El Pais had a headline that he would not like to see emblazoned on a British newspaper, reading as it did, "The best solution for the UK is to stay in a reformed EU". The paper refers to the premier's speech of 23 January, when he announced his intention to hold a referendum, and Cameron is then asked whether, if the referendum went against him, he would be willing to withdraw from the EU. And his answer is blunt and to the point: "I would not. What I would like is to get reform of the European Union". For the Daily Express, though, the story is also that British support for the EU is "wafer-thin", leaving it for Le Monde to headline: "David Cameron: 'Stay in a reformed EU'". Mr Cameron was due to meet François Hollande this evening for dinner, and in preparation he had emphasised to the French as well he was not ready to withdraw from the EU. The best outcome for Great Britain is to remain in a reformed EU, he says. Thus, even as Margaret Thatcher was on her death bed, the heir to Blair was reassuring the European media that he had no intention of leaving the EU, while presenting a much harder line to the British press. Love her or loathe her, at least with Thatcher, you knew where you stood. When, earlier in her career, she was in favour of the European projet, there was no mistaking her support. And when she turned against it, her views were equally unequivocal. Never in a million years, in the latter phase of her career, could Süddeutsche Zeitung have carried a headline: "Thatcher is committed to Europe". That Mr Cameron is comfortable with that headline illustrates how much we have lost today. COMMENT: THATCHER COMBINED THREAD Richard North 08/04/2013 |
UK politics: Thatcher dead
Monday 8 April 2013
 Richard North 08/04/2013 |
Eurocrash: Portugal's "national emergency"
Monday 8 April 2013
 According to Handelsplatt, prime minister Pedro Passos Coelho says spending on social security, health and education would be cut. If the country does not save to meet the requirements of the international sponsors (Geldgeber), it faces bankruptcy. Meanwhile, DWN is effectively saying that we should get our money out of the banks. It uses American economist and investor Doug Casey, who avers that the crisis in Cyprus and the de factocollapse of the Cypriot banking system was the beginning of the end of European banks as we know them today.
Cyprus will remain no other choice than to return sheep farming, the cultivation of olives and serving ouzo to tourists, says Casey. "For a very long time, nobody in the world will deposit money in Cyprus".
But the events in Cyprus are more than the failure of a national banking system, he adds. "It could be the spark which explodes the barrel of dynamite on the Global Financial System". The whole world is bankrupt and has been for years, he goes on to say, then declaring that: "The banking business is corrupt from top to bottom". This is something with which few, other than bankers, will disagree. Nowadays no one knows who really is creditworthy, he says, referring to the trillions in value of derivatives. It is impossible to assess the actual risk of default on these derivatives", Casey warns. The states themselves have supported this development, according to Casey, with the central banks of each year pumping billions into the markets . "The result is logically a gigantic financial industry which has to deal with these trillions." But", he warns, "there will be a very bad end … There will be a big crash, it is only the question of whether it will be later this week, the next one or not for a few months". I may be wrong here, but one gets the impression that he is not entirely a happy bunny. COMMENT THREAD Richard North 08/04/2013 |
Harrogate Agenda: a franchise affair - 2
Sunday 7 April 2013
 If I was to have focused on that, it would have been to ask how many of the movements we are now seeing have actually achieved anything substantive, and how many of them will still be in place in, say, twenty years time, and will have achieved their objectives – whatever they might be. What probably distinguishes The Harrogate Agenda (THA) from these other groups is that we have avery clear statement of objectives. This has been carefully thought out; it strikes at the very roots of power and, when adopted, will make a very significant change to the way we are governed. That said, we have no illusions about the difficulties involved, and have thus written earlier about being in this for the long haul, and of the need for a foundation year. There are those who would wish us to move faster, but from those, I notice no convincing arguments about how we could speed up the process of getting the Agenda adopted. That, actually, defines our approach. There are many would-be campaigners who define "success" in terms of activity rather than outcomes. They will congratulate themselves on holding a demonstration, on starting up a website, on getting favourable publicity, or even on coming second in an election. For THA, though, there is only one outcome, measure of success – the implementation of all six of our demands. If we achieve that inside twenty years, it will be a miracle. And the only way that "miracle" will happen is through a carefully structured, measured approach, built on solid foundations. Further, it has always been the case that campaigns cost money and, last week, I discussed the idea of creating a form of franchise, which would enable the movement to be structured as a business, to generate an income to cover expenses and to pay those who work for the cause. There are those who disagree with this approach, but unless they can come up with a better idea for funding a long-term campaign, this, as they say, is the only game in town. We would need to be convinced that there was another model which could sustain us over the many years that it will take to fight our corner. Short of any better ideas, we will continue to work on a franchise model, as described last week, to which effect, we have already devoted a considerable amount of time and effort, developing the "product package" which will form the basis of the franchise. So far, what we have in mind is a foundation pamphlet, similar in length to a typical Bruges Group pamphlet, which will describe the basics of the Harrogate Agenda, and the reasoning for it. This, our franchisees can sell for a modest fee. And if the term "franchisee" offends, notwithstanding that our MPs hold our franchise, call them "agents" or some such. In time, we will also produce six further pamphlets, each one describing one of the six demands in greater detail, again produced for sale at a modest fee by our putative franchisees or agents. On top of this, plans are well advanced to produce two broadcast-quality video documentaries, each of about half an hour in length. The first will essentially illustrate the foundation pamphlet. The second will be about the "Norway option", and its application to any forthcoming EU referendum and a "no" campaign. We aim to have short versions on YouTube, but the full-length videos will be available on DVD and download, for a modest fee – more saleable products to form the franchise package. Over time, we will, of course, consider making more. These two are assured, as we have secured the very generous sponsorship to fund their making – about £25,000 in all. With that, we have a busy filming schedule set for the summer, aiming to complete by our annual conference, provisionally set for 19 October. However, the core of the franchise package, and the bulk of our early activity, will be the "workshops". These I will describe in more detail next week, but the essence is a series of talks. When combined, these can form half-day, day or weekend "events" which can be marketed to the public for a fee. The basis of this "product", in the hands of our agents, will be a fully tested series of lecture notes, powerpoint illustrations, and a support package which includes training and marketing assistance. When we get going, therefore, we will have a range of "products" – the workshop series, pamphlets and DVDs, with more to follow. On top of conferences, and other events, we think this will make a good start. But quality products don't come quick, cheap or easy. Which is why we need a foundation year. COMMENT: COMBINED "HARROGATE AGENDA" THREAD Richard North 07/04/2013 |
EU politics: protest in the air
Sunday 7 April 2013
 However, the sudden rush of popularity (insofar as it is real) may be less to do with the approval ratings of Mr Farage (who is mercifully unknown to most of his putative voters), as to a growing, and Europe-wide disillusionment with established political parties. Even in very conventional and staid German politics, the winds of change seem to be blasting through the system. No sooner did Die Welt report its own opinion poll telling us that Merkel's CDU/CSU grouping was well ahead in the polls, with "no sign of a mood for change", then up pops a poll on the AFD which has a potential 24 percent of the vote at the general election. Unlike UKIP, though, the new party fares better with the young than the elderly, and with supporters of the Left. This is very much in keeping with other eurosceptic movements on the continent and in the Scandinavian bloc, where Denmark and Norwegian sceptics have a decidedly Leftwards tinge. The German movement, though, is very much looking to working within the existing political system. Founding member Bernd Lucke says his party firmly supports the Basic Law (constitution), declaring: "We are not ideological". In Italy and Holland, in Grillo and Geert Wilders, we also see anti-EU/internationalist sentiment coalesce around parliamentary parties, with the main effort directed to winning seats in the respective parliaments. The same applies to Austria, where the minority Freedom Party has dominated radical politics. Possibly more interesting, though, are the "wildcat" extra-parliamentary movements in France and Spain. In France, we are seeing the emergence of the "Génération Identitaire", young, angry and on the rise – and now spreading to Germany, where there are 39 regional associations. At the end of March, the French grouping was out in the streets of Paris as part of a 300,000-strong protest demonstrating against gay marriage. Strongly opposed to Islam and anti-immigration, some members have sought active confrontation with the police. France's Interior Minister Manuel Valls blamed them for the riots which ensued during the demonstration, and video footage shows activists with "GI" flags in confrontation mode with the police and emergency services. With no central direction, they rely on the anonymity of the Internet to spread their "nationalist-right" message, where they speak of the "European Spring" in the manner of the Arab Spring. This is a message of violent uprising against government, their symbol the Greek Lambda, with roots stretching back to 1974. The German branch openly expresses its objective as "the preservation of our ethno-cultural identity, which is now threatened by the demographic collapse, mass immigration and Islamisation". The aim of the movement, it says, is "a cultural and spiritual revolution which values tradition, home, family, culture, nation, state, order, and beauty".  For the French, one of their activities has been to occupy on 20 October 2012 a mosque in Poitiers, protesting against the "Islamisation" of French society. For more than six hours, 60 protesters held out on the roof of the building, displayed banners and chanting (picture above). And the choice of Poitiers was no coincidence: In 732, Charles Martel defeated a Muslim invading army. Through their parent organisation, the Bloc Identitaire, alliances are claimed with movements of a similar nature in Portugal, Catalonia, Holland, Belgium (Vlaams Belang), and Italy (Lega Nord). There is no association claimed with Greece, though, where the racist Golden Dawn is mounting both parliamentary and extra-parliamentary opposition. As for Spain, there were have seen the growing protests under the label of the "Indignados" (often with strong trade union support), but – in response to the power and weaponry of the riot police, we have seen a change in tactics with the emergence of the flash mob, targeting politicians and officials in their own homes. Calling themselves the escraches, they are copying tactics developed in Argentina, as a means of countering the violence of the junta. As a dispersal tactic, it has similarities to the August riots of 2011, where the police were unable to deal with multiple outbreaks of violence, spread over a wide area. Quite whether these various episodes of protest amount to anything lasting, or have the capacity to secure long-term change, is open to question. Unlike our own Harrogate Agenda, which wants fundamental change, most of the parliamentary protests seem mainly to oppose specific policies, without seeking revolution. The revolutionary groups, on the other hand, such as the Génération Identitaire, seem to be seeking revolution, without any clear ideology. The one thing that unites them all, though, is the dislike (to put it at its most neutral) of establishment politicians. That form of unity, the European Union has achieved, but what happens next is not entirely clear. COMMENT THREAD Richard North 07/04/2013 |
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