EU politics: revolting parallels
Friday 12 April 2013
 As for the British political scene, this has been rendered sterile by the media incontinence over Lady Thatcher's death. And when one newspaper carried a eulogy from David Beckham, that really did signal that it was time to depart the field and find a suitable bunker. It's worth having a look at Bill Jamieson though. He is one of the few commentators who actually has something interesting to say, and he is by no means alone in his view that the saturation coverage is way over the top. Meanwhile, UKIP and its leader are still getting a modicum of coverage so it is interesting to reflect on the coverage of the German equivalent, Alternative für Deutschland (AFD), which is beginning to make serious waves in the Fatherland. Amongst others, FAZ is giving the party a fair dose of publicity, reporting that it now has 7500 members, about 2,500 more than two weeks ago. "The influx is huge," says party co-founder Hamburg economics professor, Bernd Lucke. What is probably significant is that among the new members are also some deserters from establishment parties, including some regional politicians from Merkel's CDU. By far the must substantial source of new members is in fact the CDU, and many of the members are academics, middle-aged or older, and mostly male. The Left seems to be poorly represented. There are, therefore, some parallels with UKIP and, as we observed on Sunday, the current popularity of the British eurosceptic party may owe more to a general, Europe-wide disillusionment with traditional politics than to any specific British phenomenon. If this is the case, the effect of the AFD on this September's general election may be quite significant. Lucke is quite confident that the party can surmount the hurdles necessary for it to stand in the elections and, with the media interest in the AFD every bit as strong the British media interest in UKIP. How the AFD performs could be a signpost for UKIP's expectations. Not least, the AFD could damage Merkel's vote, sufficient to let some Socialists in, replicating the "UKIP effect" on the Conservative Party. Interestingly, with commendable speed, AFD is getting its electoral programme together and, unlike UKIP, it is heavily promoting democracy reform, calling for more elements of direct democracy. It also argues that MPs should be banned from "all paid outside activities". AFD, though, remains in favour of European integration. It opposes the euro because it believes it splits Europe. "The peaceful unification of Europe needs no common currency", says Lucke. But not all is plain sailing. The party has by mid-July to collect signatures - up to 2000 in each province in order to be eligible for election. And they have to put up respectable candidates and organise a campaign. The momentum of the new grassroots movement is great but the obstacles to success are much greater. Lucke has high expectations of the party. "If things go well", he says, "it can get a big boost". But he also knows that the party is still very young, inexperienced and heterogeneous - and thus prone to dispute. "The 1500 people have no party experience. There is also a risk that they aggravate each other". And there is probably another similarity with UKIP. Small party politics is particularly prone to strife, and there is no shortage of that in UKIP. Very often small parties need no external enemies – they create them from within their own ranks. COMMENT THREAD Richard North 12/04/2013 |
Energy: change in EU strategy?
Thursday 11 April 2013
 Gone – or so we are led to believe – is the obsessional pursuit of a low-carbon economy. Instead, given the European Union's economic problems, there should be more flexibility: the focus of energy policy should be broadened beyond purely reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, and efforts should be made to ensure that energy remains affordable. Thus, says Oettinger, "Today we are looking at climate protection in its entirety, taking into account that energy has to remain affordable for industries and private households". WSJ thinks that this signals a shift in the EU's clean-energy strategy, with a bigger focus on keeping down costs to preserve the competitiveness of the bloc's economy. But, with the EU, nothing is ever quite what it seems. Oettinger is in fact speaking to his Green Paper issued on 27 March. Entitled, "A 2030 framework for climate and energy policies", it launched a public consultation lasting until 2 July, "allowing Member States, other EU institutions and stakeholders to express their views" on climate and energy policies. Effectively, the same sentiments were expressed at the press conference and, although the launch has been almost entirely ignored by the British legacy media, there is substantial reading in the full paper. One finds, for instance, that the Commission is making no concessions – the longer term climate objectives are unchanged, and there is every intention that they should be met. All that seems to be happening is that the EU recognises the existence of the on-going economic crisis and is retreating into jargon. What we are being asked to do, therefore, is "to identify how best to maximise synergies and deal with trade-offs between the objectives of competitiveness, security of energy supply and sustainability" – effectively how to achieve the targets without making it hurt so much. But the Commission's offer is: "higher shares of renewable energy, energy efficiency improvements and better and smarter energy infrastructure". These, it says, are 'no regrets' options for transforming the EU's energy system". As for the consultation process, there is nothing about seeking or expediting source of cheap energy. Instead, the aim of the green paper is "to consult stakeholders to obtain evidence and views to support the development of the 2030 framework". However, since the Commission is also "consulting on issues relating to the international negotiations of a new legally binding agreement for climate action", as well as "its policy to enable the demonstration of the carbon capture and storage technology", there is little scope for change. Crucially, there is a great deal of reliance on energy efficiency, in which smart metering and the smart grid play a central role in squaring the circle, delivering emission reductions and cost savings. In a separate paper published in 2011, the Commission estimates that energy consumption could be reduced by almost nine percent by 2020 with the use of smart grids. Strangely, although this is our government talking, its fantasies are being allowed to multiply without critical review, not least the belief that 80 percent of all electricity meters will be replaced by smart meters by 2020 – less than six years. Nothing, therefore, has actually changed. The same obsessions stand, and the same fantasy solutions are proposed as we hurtle towards destruction. COMMENT THREAD Richard North 11/04/2013 |
Friday, 12 April 2013
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