SHABBAT SHALOM!
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Weekly Commentary: Thinking out of the box on the Russian S-300 sale to
Syria
Dr. Aaron Lerner Date: 9 May 2013
By all counts the supply of the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft system to Syria
could have a catastrophically destabilizing impact on the region as it
provides a protective umbrella for terrorist activity originating both in
Syria and Lebanon.
Especially these days, as Hezbullah boasts that it will be receiving balance
breaking weapons systems, one should keep in mind that the S-300 is much
more than just missiles. The system produces a wealth of real time data
that can be used by other systems for tracking and targeting. Thus even
some obscure Russian promises about limitations on the use of the missiles –
if such assurances are provided and actually honored – could be stripped of
operational significance by the farming out the S-300 data to other systems.
I am pessimistic that exhortations alone will convince Russia not to supply
the S-300.
Russia does, after all, also have legitimate interests.
Over the past 20 years Russia has lost all its bases and mooring facilities
in the Mediterranean as a result of changes in the former Yugoslavia and,
more recently, Libya. Syria is the last “friendly” country in the
Mediterranean to receive the Russian navy.
The Syrian Port of Tartus is thus vital to Moscow. In fact, already back on
31 January this year Asharq Al-Awsat reported from Moscow sources that
Russia had already seized effective control of Tartus with work on expanding
the mooring facilities there scheduled to start in the spring.
There is a limit to the face saving third parties can provide Russia should
it agree not to supply the S-300 to its ally President Assad. But there is
most definitely much that third parties can do to reassure Moscow that their
continued use of Tartus would in no way be compromised regardless of
developments in Syria.
It may very well be time to think out of the box to come up with an
arrangement that assures that the S-300 system never reaches Syria.
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis) (Mail
POB 982 Kfar Sava) Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730 INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il Website: http://www.imra.org.il
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