Arlene from Israel.
July 31, 2008
"Just Suppose"
Political predictions are never written in stone, and certainly I make no
claims that what I'm about to write here is anything other than a
speculation. But I think it's a reasonably informed speculation and worth
sharing...
I wrote yesterday about Netanyahu and Barak having met, and about thoughts
that they might have been talking about more than defense issues.
Well, just suppose that...
Netanyahu has convinced Barak that he (Barak) will have a more solid
political future if he throws the lot of Labor in with Likud rather than
with Kadima. Suppose Barak is sold on the idea that the whole Kadima party
is politically polluted and that something of their reputation would
ultimate rub off on Labor (not that Barak himself is exactly Mr. Clean, you
understand).
This notion that Likud now seeks to represent itself as the party of
integrity (no laughing out there, please) is bolstered by Uzi Dayan having
joined its ranks. Dayan's Tafnit party platform had a strong plank for
clean government -- his endorsement of Likud is like the Seal of Good
Housekeeping (for those Americans old enough to remember that).
Suppose Netanyahu has made promises to Barak about the role Labor can play
in the coalition, and that Netanyahu and Barak together have decided to
finish the Kadima party.
It could happen: they could do it. Without Labor, it is very unlikely that
anyone at Kadima's helm would be able to put together a stable coalition.
~~~~~~~~~~
All of this is by way of saying that it ain't over yet, and we cannot be
certain how it will play out -- and certainly cannot be sure that the next
government will be Kadima-led.
Haim Ramon, an Olmert mouthpiece and a deputy PM, told Army Radio this
morning that Kadima's chances of forming a new coalition are very slim.
While Shaul Mofaz, also speaking to Army Radio, said he thinks he has a good
chance of winning the Kadima primary, and that he intends to put together a
broad-based coalition for a unity government. Right now in polls on the
Kadima primary Mofaz is running just a couple of points behind Livni, who
previously had a major lead.
And Binyamin Netanyahu is calling for new elections, saying, "This
government has reached an end and it doesn't matter who heads Kadima. They
are all partners in this government's total failure."
~~~~~~~~~~
It is apparently as I had speculated yesterday. (Making this speculation
was a no-brainer, really.)
Police sources are saying that Olmert decided to step down now because "he
recognized that the investigation evidence held by police is serious and
solid....The investigation Friday is expected to be difficult and
uncomfortable for Olmert. He will be confronted with evidence and documents
that have accumulated against him, and it is a fair assumption that he
already understands that this involves substantive evidence." (Olmert is to
be questioned again, this time with regard to alleged double billing for
travel.)
There are actually commentators who are saying that Olmert has stepped down
with dignity, doing what's right for the country. But, hey, I say he's doing
what's right for Olmert, as he always does. Far better this than the
possibility of being forced out after he's indicted.
What's clear is that he is without humility of any sort or a sense of
responsibility for what has transpired. He is, he tells us, only a hard
working and innocent man who has been set upon by enemies.
~~~~~~~~~~
Most disconcerting is Olmert's pledge to keep working on peace negotiations.
This raises the issue of exactly what would be tolerated in this country in
terms of any commitments he might make to the PA when he is on his way out.
We cannot let our guard down here.
~~~~~~~~~~
Earlier this week, Olmert told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense
Committee that it was highly unlikely that it would be possible to reach a
comprehensive agreement with the Palestinians by the end of 2008. While
there were gaps on issues such as borders and refugees, he said the main
sticking point was Jerusalem.
Then, a day later, Olmert announced expectation that it should be possible
to reach an agreement on everything else but Jerusalem by the end of 2008,
with a mechanism set in place for how to reach a Jerusalem agreement in the
following year.
~~~~~~~~~~
Yesterday the Palestinians weighed in on this. If there is no comprehensive
agreement by the end of 2008, we are being told, the PA may stop
negotiations. "May." I have never known a group to make so many threats,
all of which turn out to be nothing but hot air.
What Abbas's chief of staff, Rafik Husseni, said was, "We will negotiate
until the end of the year, and then the president will review our options."
But here's the key: "Without a deal on Jerusalem, there will not be a peace
deal at all."
Ahmed Qurei, head of the negotiating team, vociferously agreed:
"There will be no peace agreement with Israel unless there's an agreement on
Jerusalem. And there will be no state without Jerusalem. Olmert and the rest
of the world must understand that Jerusalem is the core of the problem."
Note: "Jerusalem" means a demand for all of eastern Jerusalem, with us
returning to the Green Line. This means, aside from everything else, total
relinquishment of the Kotel and Har Habayit (the Temple Mount). This is not
going to happen.
So the bottom line is that I don't believe Olmert is capable of signing off
on a final deal with the PA before he leaves office. But he can do us
damage by going on the record as being committed to things that will come to
haunt us later.
~~~~~~~~~~
Abbas made yet another threat yesterday that is a sure sign of just how
precarious the position of the PA is right now. If Israel releases Hamas
members of the Palestinian parliament as part of the deal to secure the
release of Shalit, Abbas would dismantle the PA. This information, according
to Haaretz, came as a "personal message" from Abbas delivered to our Central
Command by head of the PA's civic affairs department.
Many Hamas parliamentarians were arrested by Israel after Shalit was
captured and about 40 remain in our prisons. Abbas is afraid that their
release would end up strengthening Hamas infrastructure in Judea and Samaria
significantly just at a time when Fatah and Hamas are embroiled in conflict.
The position that Abbas is taking on this might have the effect of weakening
him on the Palestinian street, as Abbas is supposed to be working for the
release of all Palestinian brothers.
~~~~~~~~~~
There is no progress in negotiations to secure Shalit in any event, because
Israel is refusing to release all of the prisoners demanded by Hamas -- not
because they will strengthen Hamas civic infrastructure, but because they
are terrorists. Neither will we permit the opening of the crossing at Rafah
as a precondition.
But the question remains as to whether Israel might give credence to Abbas's
concerns on this.
~~~~~~~~~~
Yesterday, Khaled Abu Toameh reports, PA security was put on high alert
because Hamas is threatening PA officials in Judea and Samaria -- especially
in Ramallah, and the threats are being taken seriously.
Leaflets distributed by Hamas's military wing, Izzadin Kassam, targeted top
PA leaders for "collaborating with Israel."
Specifically mentioned were Abbas, PA Prime Minister Salaam Fayyad, PLO
executive committee member Yasser Abed Rabbo, top Fatah officials Azzam
al-Ahmed and Ahmed Abdel Rahman, and Tayeb Abdel Rahim, a senior adviser to
Abbas.
"Collaborating with Israel": Great climate for negotiating serious "peace
talks," no?
~~~~~~~~~~
Eli Lake, writing in the NY Sun, discusses the fact that there is now likely
to be a slow down in PA - Israel negotiations, which will be problematic for
Rice, who is pushing for an interim document.
Lake cites David Makovsky, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for
Near East Policy:
"Basically, Secretary Rice would like a summation document that points to
the disagreements and the points of convergence between the two parties. The
problem is that no political figures like to expose to the public the
concessions they make in the absence of a diplomatic breakthrough....There
is not much hope for such an agreed-upon document."
~~~~~~~~~~
see my website www.arlenefromisrael.info
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