The sound of silence. A triumph of hope over experience. Kinder Cops. Don't panic!

Friday, August 01, 2008
The sound of silence
"The collapse of the British Energy deal is bad news for UK consumers" says The Daily Telegraph (business section, of course). But it is rather more than that.

The attraction of the deal was that it gave EDF and Centrica both a stake in Britain's nuclear industry, bringing expertise and, most importantly, the prospect of serious investment. Without that investment – whatever the fond hopes of government – the new generation of nuclear power stations will not be built and, without those, we will be looking to serious gaps in our future generating capacity.

Since it is estimated that, from scratch, it can take upwards of 16 years to commission a nuclear plant, a replacement programme has already been dangerously delayed. The collapse of this deal may add more years to this timescale, meaning that we are perhaps looking to beyond 2024 before we start seeing the vitally necessary additions to our generation capacity.

In the interim, the only "quick fix" is to resort to gas-fired plants – which can be commissioned in as little a six years. But even further reliance on gas, in the context of increasing world demand and reducing supply, simply sets the scene for a "perfect storm" of monumental price rises. The 35 percent price hike by British Gas will, in retrospect, become a fond memory, as utility bills double and double again.

What is particularly worrying though is the absence of any sense of urgency from the government. While a national energy strategy was due earlier this year, there is still no sign of it and no indications as to when it will appear.

Something of the growing irritation at this inertia even leaks into the The Telegraph piece, with the throwaway line, "While the Government is paralysed by its own childish in-fighting this summer, British consumers are being hit by wave after wave of energy price hikes…."

But it is not only the government. As we remarked yesterday, the entire political class seems to have called "time out" while it indulges itself in an orgy of introspection and trivia, avoiding any serious discussion of the energy issue.

In two years time, however – at the very latest – we expect a general election, whence it is also widely expected that the Conservatives will sweep into office. Yet, for a potential government, we hear absolutely nothing that gives us any clue that the shadow cabinet, or even the broader party, has even begun to realise the depth of the crisis that will overwhelm any new administration.

To the contrary, if the Conservative Home site is any guide – along with the prattlers at the Spectator blog, the party at large is in la la land. One of Cameron's first appointments, it is suggested, should be the creation of a secretary of state for climate change, with talk of the first priorities of the new government being "centrepiece reforms on schools and welfare".

Yet, over on Global Warming Politics, we find Philip Stott declaring: "… no political party should be considered electable until it commits itself to new coal stations, to new nuclear plant, and to the improved import and storage of gas. Above all, we want, and need, to hear on this from the currently-empty vessel that is David Cameron and the Conservative Party."

At the moment, though, all we are hearing is silence. That is seriously disturbing.

Posted by Richard at 13:22 Printable Version Print


A triumph of hope over experience
It is a while since we covered the situation in Darfur – much as we would like to keep up with all the issues that trouble us … we can only do so much. In fact, is was November when we last did a substantive story, building on the incredible farce over the supply of helicopters to support peacekeeping forces in the region.

At the time, it looked like there was a sort of resolution, with various promises of machines forthcoming, but it now looks as if these have not materialised, making a total mockery of international support efforts.

This is from a report compiled by Thomas Withington, a defence analyst who specialises in military aviation and air power issues.

He has listed India, Ukraine, Czech Republic, Italy, Romania and Spain in order as best able to provide the aircraft and identified 140 aircraft suitable for use in Darfur.

Out of those, a mere 18 helicopters are needed but these have not materialised. "Many of these helicopters are gathering dust in hangars or flying in air shows when they could be saving lives in Darfur," says Withington.

The report has been endorsed by "36 rights and aid groups" and the foreword has been signed by South African Nobel peace laureate Desmond Tutu, former UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, former US president Jimmy Carter and the wife of Nelson Mandela, Graca Machel. "The time for action is now; the time of excuses and explanations is long past," they say.

One of these days, they may begin to realise that their misty-eyed tranzie paradigm of a benign world order simply does not work. When it comes to good intentions and "caring" it gets top marks, but it does not deliver, cannot deliver and never will.

But there again, perhaps, they will never get the message. As always, we are seeing the human condition – the triumph of hope over experience. We hope it makes them feel warm and self-righteous, because it is not going to achieve anything else.

COMMENT THREAD

Posted by Richard at 01:45 Printable Version Print


Thursday, July 31, 2008
Kinder Cops
Over 200 blogs have picked up on the "Climate Cops" – mostly American, but including blogs from Canada, Australia, Holland, Spain and Germany. Unsurprisingly, we find only a smattering of British blogs - although Devil's Kitchen has done us proud.

One of the German sites has dubbed the planet savers as Kinder cops. Another labels them Green shirts while yet another awards them the title of Climate Jugend.

However, it seems someone got there before npower. Apparently, in 2007, a former UN Undersecretary General was calling on Canada to spearhead a drive to establish a permanent World Climate Commission with authority to act as the planet's climate cops.

He didn't get as far as suggesting a UN Climate-Keeping Force but, when it comes, I suppose they will be wearing green helmets.

COMMENT THREAD

Posted by Richard at 20:15 Printable Version Print


Don't panic!
Something we should have picked up yesterday, and now covered fully by Watts up with that, is the story run by The Telegraph (and many others), headed, "Arctic ice shelf splits in big melt".

A part of the Arctic ice shelf has sheared off creating two huge ice islands, we are told, covering an area of seven square miles (our emphasis). This, journalist Paul Eccleston breathlessly announced, "marked the biggest break up of the ice for three years."

Needless to say, it is not very long before we come to the punch-line, "The scientists say they believe the split was almost certainly caused by the warming climate which is affecting polar regions more than anywhere else. The break-up of ice, known as calving, is regarded by scientists as being symptomatic of the warming of polar areas."

Er, right! This is why arctic sea ice is reported to be around a million square kilometres greater in extent than it was this time last year (see pic below) – nearly 400,000 square miles … and they're writing stories about seven square miles?


However, there is no need to panic! Warmists will be comforted to learn that this does not in any way impact on the AGW theory.

According to Mark Serreze, a senior research fellow at the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), there is a 90 percent match between rising greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from use of fossil fuels, in recent decades and observations of a retreat of the ice. "Ninety percent ... of the decreasing sea-ice extent is empirically 'accounted for' by the increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere," Serreze says.

He adds that, if the match continues to hold true, the annual average ice extent would be several million km smaller by 2050 than predicted by the UN Climate Panel. He thus stands by a prediction that the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by 2030, decades before predictions by the Panel.

The NSIDC, by the way, suggested in May that it was "quite possible" that the Pole could be ice-free this year.