Gordon Brown talks of a "relaunch".
This, of course, by its very nature can only occur after a disastrous failure.
Oh, well, The Chancellor has already admitted that.
With the uncanny inevitability of a Greek tragedy Gordon Brown has to
choose the very day of a damning OECD report to drop a few goodies
into the outstretched palms of the beleagured peasantry. Though as
each day seems to bring more bad news to bring his nemesis closer -
and ours! - I suppose one can't blame him for the timing.
xxxxxxxxxxx cs
====================
BBC ONLINE 2.9.08
UK recession this year, OECD says
By Steve Schifferes , Economics reporter, BBC News
The UK economy is likely to fall into recession this year, according
to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
The Paris-based think tank predicts that the UK economy will shrink
at an annual rate of 0.3% in the third quarter, and by 0.4% in the
fourth.
According to the latest official figures, the UK economy did not grow
at all in the second quarter of 2008.
The working definition of a recession is two quarters of negative
growth.
The gloomy outlook for the UK economy has pushed the pound sterling
to its lowest level for two years against the euro.
Dark clouds?
The OECD forecast is the gloomiest yet for the UK economy by an
official organisation, even gloomier than the forecast released by
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) one month ago.
In its latest report, the OECD says that the UK economy will grow by
just 1.2% for the whole of 2008, a sharp reduction in its earlier
forecast of 1.8% made just two months ago, and less than the 1.4%
predicted by the IMF.
The OECD's figure is less than half the official Treasury forecast of
2.5%, although the Chancellor has recently indicated that this was
likely to be revised downwards as the UK was facing "the worst
economic conditions in 60 years".
The think tank is also gloomy about growth prospects in the rest of
Europe, and says the region's three other largest economies -
Germany, France, and Italy - will barely grow at all this year.
It points out that "financial market turmoil, housing market
downturns, and high commodity prices continue to bear down on global
growth".
The OECD adds that the particular circumstances of the credit crunch
make for "a particularly unclear picture".
The shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, said:
"This is more gloomy news, coming on the back of the Chancellor's
warning that the economy is facing the worst crisis in sixty years.
"The depressing thing is that at the very moment when Britain needs a
strong and united leadership, we have a weak and dysfunctional
government."
Exports hit
The sharp revision of the growth forecast for the eurozone, with the
German economy not growing at all in the next two quarters, will have
consequences for the UK.
The eurozone is Britain's largest trading partner, taking 50% of
British exports. With growth slowing, even with a devalued pound,
there is unlikely to be strong demand in the export sector, analysts
say.
According to the OECD, the US economy may grow slightly more strongly
than it had previously expected, but "uncertainty as to the extent of
weakness hinges importantly on how rapidly the effects of the
temporary fiscal stimulus will fade".
In July, the US Treasury paid out $168bn in tax rebates to help boost
the US economy.
The OECD adds that in view of the weak outlook for the future, the US
central bank, the Federal Reserve, is right to keep interest rates
low at 2%.
Gloomy outlook
The OECD sees the still-unfolding downturn in the housing market as
the biggest problem facing Western economies.
It says that reduced credit supply is adding to the problem, with
house prices still falling in the US, and downturns in housing market
activity spreading in Europe from Spain, Ireland and the UK to other
countries.
It adds that "potential further losses on housing and construction
finance" are also a source of concern for the financial sector,
especially as the "depth and extent of financial disruption is still
uncertain".
The OECD also warns that "sharp increases in energy and food prices
have boosted headline inflation and sapped real incomes of consumers".
However, it sees some reason for optimism on inflation, and says that
if commodity prices are sustained at their current levels and do not
rise to record levels again then "some moderation of both headline
and underlying inflation is to be expected".
And if this happens, it suggests that there might be scope for the
European Central Bank, which has recently raised interest rates, to
cut them to boost the eurozone economy.
Given rising government budget deficits, it argues that monetary
rather than fiscal policy should be used to boost the economy.
=================
CONSERVATIVE HOME Blog 1/9/08
- EXTRACTS -
"Now we see that the consequences of Gordon Brown's complete
mismanagement of the economy will not just hit hard-working families
in the pocket but will also threaten their security and safety.
Across the board Labour are failing in their duty to ensure the
welfare of the British public." - Dominic Grieve quoted by the BBC
The UK's economic circumstances are by no means the worst in 60
years. But the same, however, may not be true of the Labour party." -
FT leader
"This week's economic recovery plan looks set to offer, at best,
targeted benefits and, at worst, reckless commitments, rather than
the needed medicine of tax and spending cuts." - Telegraph leader
==================
BBC RADIO4 "Today" 1.9.08
Cameron: Darling is creating a crisis of confidencer
Mr Cameron attacked Chancellor Alistair Darling for his
"extraordinary" remarks on the downturn, claiming he was talking down
the UK economy. (remaining remarks were on Georgia)
With the uncanny inevitability of a Greek tragedy Gordon Brown has to
choose the very day of a damning OECD report to drop a few goodies
into the outstretched palms of the beleagured peasantry. Though as
each day seems to bring more bad news to bring his nemesis closer -
and ours! - I suppose one can't blame him for the timing.
xxxxxxxxxxx cs
====================
BBC ONLINE 2.9.08
UK recession this year, OECD says
By Steve Schifferes , Economics reporter, BBC News
The UK economy is likely to fall into recession this year, according
to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
The Paris-based think tank predicts that the UK economy will shrink
at an annual rate of 0.3% in the third quarter, and by 0.4% in the
fourth.
According to the latest official figures, the UK economy did not grow
at all in the second quarter of 2008.
The working definition of a recession is two quarters of negative
growth.
The gloomy outlook for the UK economy has pushed the pound sterling
to its lowest level for two years against the euro.
Dark clouds?
The OECD forecast is the gloomiest yet for the UK economy by an
official organisation, even gloomier than the forecast released by
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) one month ago.
In its latest report, the OECD says that the UK economy will grow by
just 1.2% for the whole of 2008, a sharp reduction in its earlier
forecast of 1.8% made just two months ago, and less than the 1.4%
predicted by the IMF.
The OECD's figure is less than half the official Treasury forecast of
2.5%, although the Chancellor has recently indicated that this was
likely to be revised downwards as the UK was facing "the worst
economic conditions in 60 years".
The think tank is also gloomy about growth prospects in the rest of
Europe, and says the region's three other largest economies -
Germany, France, and Italy - will barely grow at all this year.
It points out that "financial market turmoil, housing market
downturns, and high commodity prices continue to bear down on global
growth".
The OECD adds that the particular circumstances of the credit crunch
make for "a particularly unclear picture".
The shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, said:
"This is more gloomy news, coming on the back of the Chancellor's
warning that the economy is facing the worst crisis in sixty years.
"The depressing thing is that at the very moment when Britain needs a
strong and united leadership, we have a weak and dysfunctional
government."
Exports hit
The sharp revision of the growth forecast for the eurozone, with the
German economy not growing at all in the next two quarters, will have
consequences for the UK.
The eurozone is Britain's largest trading partner, taking 50% of
British exports. With growth slowing, even with a devalued pound,
there is unlikely to be strong demand in the export sector, analysts
say.
According to the OECD, the US economy may grow slightly more strongly
than it had previously expected, but "uncertainty as to the extent of
weakness hinges importantly on how rapidly the effects of the
temporary fiscal stimulus will fade".
In July, the US Treasury paid out $168bn in tax rebates to help boost
the US economy.
The OECD adds that in view of the weak outlook for the future, the US
central bank, the Federal Reserve, is right to keep interest rates
low at 2%.
Gloomy outlook
The OECD sees the still-unfolding downturn in the housing market as
the biggest problem facing Western economies.
It says that reduced credit supply is adding to the problem, with
house prices still falling in the US, and downturns in housing market
activity spreading in Europe from Spain, Ireland and the UK to other
countries.
It adds that "potential further losses on housing and construction
finance" are also a source of concern for the financial sector,
especially as the "depth and extent of financial disruption is still
uncertain".
The OECD also warns that "sharp increases in energy and food prices
have boosted headline inflation and sapped real incomes of consumers".
However, it sees some reason for optimism on inflation, and says that
if commodity prices are sustained at their current levels and do not
rise to record levels again then "some moderation of both headline
and underlying inflation is to be expected".
And if this happens, it suggests that there might be scope for the
European Central Bank, which has recently raised interest rates, to
cut them to boost the eurozone economy.
Given rising government budget deficits, it argues that monetary
rather than fiscal policy should be used to boost the economy.
=================
CONSERVATIVE HOME Blog 1/9/08
- EXTRACTS -
"Now we see that the consequences of Gordon Brown's complete
mismanagement of the economy will not just hit hard-working families
in the pocket but will also threaten their security and safety.
Across the board Labour are failing in their duty to ensure the
welfare of the British public." - Dominic Grieve quoted by the BBC
The UK's economic circumstances are by no means the worst in 60
years. But the same, however, may not be true of the Labour party." -
FT leader
"This week's economic recovery plan looks set to offer, at best,
targeted benefits and, at worst, reckless commitments, rather than
the needed medicine of tax and spending cuts." - Telegraph leader
==================
BBC RADIO4 "Today" 1.9.08
Cameron: Darling is creating a crisis of confidencer
Mr Cameron attacked Chancellor Alistair Darling for his
"extraordinary" remarks on the downturn, claiming he was talking down
the UK economy. (remaining remarks were on Georgia)
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