| Professor Igor Panarin: Interview - (Also on Russia Today Video Interview about his thesis) "When America collapsed into parts, a wild shout" - Russian analyst predicts decline and breakup of U.S. Also may be of Interest is Ron Paul who was also on as a Guest on Russia Today RT Guest November 27, 2008, 9:36 Ron Paul |
Behind the scenes at the G20 summit in Washington, world leaders discussed not only future financial regulations, but also the possibility of an international central bank, according U.S. congressman Ron Paul. http://www.russiatoday.com/guests/video/1833
Video clip of Interview on Russia Today
http://www.russiatoday.com/guests/detail/1839
Russia Today Guest
November 27, 2008, 22:08
Igor Panarin
The break-up of America into six pieces? Alaska joining the Russian Federation? Will Russia survive the crisis? Igor Panarin, a Russian professor of economics, discussed these questions when he dropped by the RT studio on Thursday.
Click the VIDEO link on the right to watch
http://www.russiatoday.com/guests/video/1839
`There will be civil war in US in 2009`
Interview on You Tube in Russia Todays Channel
The break-up of America into six pieces? Alaska joining the Russian Federation? Will Russia survive the crisis? Igor Panarin, a Russian professor of economics, discusses these questions when he dropped by the RT studio on Thursday.
http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=RussiaToday&view=videos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVkjCQCTOEI
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Russian analyst predicts decline and breakup of U.S. | ||||
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MOSCOW, November 24 (RIA Novosti) - A leading Russian political analyst has said the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the country is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.
Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily Izvestia published on Monday: "The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."
The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago at a time when the economy appeared strong, have been given more credence by this year's events.
When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."
When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."
Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."
He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."
He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.
He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all."
On the fate of the U.S. dollar, he said: "In 2006 a secret agreement was reached between Canada, Mexico and the U.S. on a common Amero currency as a new monetary unit. This could signal preparations to replace the dollar. The one-hundred dollar bills that have flooded the world could be simply frozen. Under the pretext, let's say, that terrorists are forging them and they need to be checked."
When asked how Russia should react to his vision of the future, Panarin said: "Develop the ruble as a regional currency. Create a fully functioning oil exchange, trading in rubles... We must break the strings tying us to the financial Titanic, which in my view will soon sink."
Panarin, 60, is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and has authored several books on information warfare.
Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry for Foreign Affairs
http://www.dipacademy.ru/index.shtml (Russian Page)
http://www.dipacademy.ru/english/index.shtml (English Page)
http://www.russiatoday.com/features/news/33836
Features
Russia Today Guest Interview with Igor Panarin
http://www.russiatoday.com/features/news/33836
Igor Panarin
The break-up of America into six pieces? Alaska joining the Russian Federation? Will Russia survive the crisis? Igor Panarin, a Russian professor of economics, discussed these questions when he dropped by the RT studio on Thursday.
November 27, 2008, 22:08
November 26, 2008, 19:49
Professor Igor Panarin: When America fell to pieces the shouting was outrageous
As early as autumn 2009 the economic crisis may lead to a civil war in the USA and then to its division into parts. Igor Panarin, doctor of political science, dean of the foreign affairs department at the Diplomacy Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, presented this forecast ten years ago. At that time his forecasts seemed unrealistic, but now many of them are coming true.
We present a new version of the event's development through the eyes of the scientist, even though it may seem disputable and even scandalous.
In his interview with Izvestia, professor Panarin shares his opinion on the following issues: why the United States decided on monetary reform; who Obama is working for; and why it is better for Russia to be friends with China.http://izvestia.com/politic/article3122838/
Question: Mr. Panarin, where did this idea of the breakup of the US come from back in 1998, when this country was prospering and when it was an unconditional world leader?
Answer: In September 1998 an international conference called the Informational War was held in Austria. I presented my analytical research there. 150 out of 400 participants were from the USA. There was outrageous shouting in the audience when I was talking about the division of America in my presentation. However my reasons were well-grounded. Back then it was obvious that finance and economy would be the main destructive power for the USA. The dollar was not secured by anything. The external debt of the country was growing like an avalanche in spite of the fact that it was non-existent at the beginning of the 1980s. In 1998, when I was making my forecast, it had reached 2 trillion dollars. Today it's more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid which is bound to collapse.
Q: Will the entire American economy collapse?
A: It is collapsing now. Three out of the five largest and oldest banks on Wall Street ceased to exist because of the financial crisis; and the other two are on the verge of surviving. Their losses are the largest in history. Now we are talking about replacing the regulation system in the world: America will no longer be the world regulator.
Q: Which country will replace it?
A: Two countries are making a claim for this role: China with its large reserves, and Russia as a country which could play the role of a regulator on the Eurasian territory. A rather remarkable event took place at the G20 summit which has just taken place in Washington. Participants put forward the new architectonics of the international affairs where a key role would belong to the International Monetary Fund. But the International Monetary Fund needs funds. Thus the participants addressed China and Japan with a request to provide money. The gold reserves of China come to more than 2 trillion dollars. It is the largest creditor to the USA. Now it will definitely affect the policy of the fund. By the way, it is not accidental that Mr. Hu Jintao met two leaders at the summit: the Russian President and the leader of the UK. There are plans to hold the spring G20 meeting in England. And the meeting with Russia as a country which is putting forward the basic principles of reconstructing the world financial system also clearly fits the vision of the Chinese reformation process.
"Skeleton which keeps the USA together is fragile"
Q: We are clear about the world leaders. But let's go back to the USA. What makes you believe in the possible division of the country?
A: There are a number of reasons. First, the financial problems of the USA will increase. Millions of citizens have already lost their savings. Prices and unemployment keep growing. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse which means that entire towns will end up unemployed. The governors are now harshly demanding money from the federal center. Complaints are growing. They've been restrained so far by the presidential election and by hope that Obama could perform a miracle. However, by spring it will become clear that a miracle will not happen.
The second factor is the vulnerability of the political mechanism in the USA. There is no uniform legislation on the territory of the country. There aren't even general uniform traffic rules. The skeleton which keeps the USA together is fragile. Even the armed forces in Iraq are represented by the non-citizens of the United States to a large extent. They fight for the promise of American citizenship. Thus the army, as a melting pot has stopped fulfilling a consolidating function for the American state. And finally, the split of the elite has made itself especially clear under the conditions of the crisis.
"Hundred dollar notes may get frozen"
Q: How will the country be divided? Mexico is obviously in the south. What else?
A: There are six parts altogether. The first one is the Pacific Ocean coast of the USA. I can give you an example: 53% of San Francisco's population is Chinese. The Governor of Washington state was an ethnic Chinese; its capital, Seattle, is called the gate of the Chinese emigration to the USA. It is obvious that the Pacific Ocean coast has been gradually influenced by China. The second part in the south is definitely the Mexicans. In some areas, Spanish has become the official language already. Then comes Texas which has been openly fighting for independence. The Atlantic coast has a totally different ethnos and mentality. It could be split into two parts as well. And we are left with two central depressive areas. May I remind you that five central states where the Indians live had announced their independence. It was perceived as a joke or a kind of a political show. But the fact remains the same. Canada is making a strong influence in the North. By the way, Russia may require returning Alaska, as it had been rented out…
Q: What will happen to the dollar then?
A: In 2006 a secret agreement was made between Canada, Mexico and the USA on preparing to implement the Amero as a new currency unit. This may mean replacement of the dollar. At the same time 100-dollar notes which have flooded the world may just get "frozen". An excuse may be used, for example, that terrorists have made false notes which need to be checked.
"Confrontation between the clans has become open"
Q: Could you tell us about the division of the elite. Are these the democrats and the republicans?
A: No, that is not right. There are two groups in the US authorities. The first one may be called the globalists, or the Trotskyites. Leon Trotsky had already formulated their idea in the past: it's not Russia that we need, but a world revolution. Soviet Russia was viewed by them as a base for control over the world. The second group is the statists which want prosperity for their country. Representatives of these two clans are present in both Democratic and Republican Parties. Take voting for the anti-crisis plan of Paulson, which was suggested by the Republican administration, for example. It was voted down in the Congress by the Republicans first of all.
Q: Who is in charge of the clans?
A: The key persons of the globalists are Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Vice President Dick Cheney. The key persons of the statists are Robert Gates, Defense Secretary; Michael Hayden, CIA Director; and Admiral Mike McConnell, director of national intelligence. Globalists are mainly the financial elite, and statists are the armed forces, special services and military and industrial complex. Recently the confrontation between these two clans has become open. In December last year the statists presented a report which completely denied the existence of the nuclear program in Iran. It directly contradicted conclusions made by Condoleezza Rice and Dick Cheney. The second important event took place at the hearings of the US Congress concerning the 5-day war in the Caucasus. The globalists represented by Condoleezza Rice insisted that Russia had started the war and that it would be punished for it. Georgia was the project of Condoleezza. And representatives of the intelligence community presented a diametrically opposite statement: that Georgia had started the war. We see an open confrontation between very outstanding political figures.
Q: And who's Obama's company?
A: The statists with Gates in charge were the key players who had enabled Obama to win. They are demanding that he change the general line in return. In this light, a very interesting factor is that Gates the Republican is viewed as the most important candidate as to whether he remains the US Defense Secretary or becomes the Secretary of State. This is the influence of the statists on the President. By the way, the first session which Obama held was with the American intelligence community.
"We have to cut the ropes tying us to Titanic."
Q: What does the victory of the statists mean for Russia?
A: It's a rather good chance for us, as they acted on our side in the conflict in the Caucasus. According to President Medvedev's visit to the USA we see that he was not subject to any obstruction in relation to the events in the Caucasus. The atmosphere in Washington was rather calm and friendly.
Q: What should Russia do in order to avoid shocks in relation to a possible economic collapse of the United States?
A: It should develop the rouble as the regional currency. It should form an efficient petroleum exchange which would sell oil for roubles. Several days ago an agreement was signed between Russia and Belarus on transferring payments for oil and gas to roubles. This is the beginning of establishing the ruble as the regional currency as well. We've been receiving our currency from Kazakhstan and Belarus for electricity already. Now our task is to try to make as many rouble contracts as possible for the year 2009 before the end of this year. In this case Russia will be able to escape the growing global crisis. We have to cut the ropes tying us to the financial "Titanic" which, in my opinion, will drown in the nearest future.
Courtesy of Izvestia daily.
Translated by RT.
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Professor Igor [Panarin]: "When America was pulled down on the part, there was wild cry"
Already in the fall of 2009 the economic crisis can lead to the War of Secession, and then - to the disintegration of state on the part. With this forecast appeared already 10 years ago the doctor of political sciences, the dean of the department "foreign relations" of the diplomatic academy of MID of Russia Igor [Panarin]. Then his forecasts appeared fantastic, but now many of them happen. On Monday we present in the judgment of the readers the new version of the course of events by the eyes of scientist - possibly, questionable and even scandalous. In the interview "for Izvestia" professor [Panarin] described, why, in his opinion, the USA planned the currency reform, on whom works [Obama] and why Russia it is better to be friends with China.
the question: Igor Nikolayevich, from where generally did appear idea about the disintegration of the USA, on top of that in 1998, when this country did flourish and he was unconditional world leader?
the answer: In September 1998 in Austria was conducted International conference "information warfare". There I represented my analytical computations. Of 400 participants in the hall there were 150 representatives of the USA, and when in my presentation America it was pulled down on the part, in the hall it was wild cry. But everything was substantiated. Already then it was clear that main destructive force for the USA - financial and economic. Dollar is provide ford in no way. The foreign debt of the country grew avalanche-type, although even at the beginning 1980- X it was not completely. 1998- m, when I made my forecast, he exceeded 2 trillion dollars. Now - it is more than 11 trillions. This is the pyramid, which compulsorily will collapse.
in: Will collapse entire U.S.Economy?
[o]: It already collapses. The financial crisis led to the fact that three already ceased to exist of 5 largest and oldest banks Of wall Of street, and two are located on the face of survival. Their loss - largest in the history. Now the discussion deals with the replacement of the system of regulation on a global financial scale: America more will not be world regulator.
in: But who it will replace?
[o]: Two countries pretend to this role: China with the enormous reserves and Russia - as the country, which could play the role of regulator on the Eurasian space. Recently ended the summit "of twenty rouble note" in Washington, in which occurred very remarkable event. Participants advanced the new architectonics of the foreign relations, where the key role will belong to the IMF (International Monetary Fund). But the IMF needs finances. And participants in the summit turned themselves to China and Japan with the request about the isolation of money. The international liquidity of China comprise more than 2 trillion dollars, it is the most important creditor of the USA and it is now unavoidable it will be unavoidable to influence the policy of fund. Not by chance, by the way, Mr. Hu Jintao on the summit met with two leaders - our President and leader of Great Britain. Specifically, in England is assumed the spring encounter "of twenty rouble note". But encounter with Russia - as by the country, which advances the base principles of the reconstruction of world financial system, also clearly is plotted in the vision of the Chinese process of reformation.
"The backbone, which connects the USA, is brittle"
in: Everything is clear with the world leaders. But let us return to the USA. What does indicate the possibility of the division of the country?
[o]: Entire complex of reasons. First, financial problems in the USA will be strengthened. Millions of citizens were there deprived of their economy. In the country the prices and unemployment grow. , And this means to face "General Motors crash" and "Ford" that the entire cities will prove to be without the work. Governors in the rigid form already require money from federal center. Dissatisfaction grows, and thus far it held in control only selections and hope for the fact that [Obama] will complete miracle. But it will become already to the spring clear that there is no miracle.
Second factor - vulnerable political device of the USA. In the territory of the country there does not exist united legislation. There are no even general rules of road motion. The backbone, which connects the USA, is sufficiently brittle. Even armed forces in Iraq are presented in many respects by the noncitizens of the USA, they war because they promise American citizenship to them. Thus, army, as fusion pan, already ceased to fulfill the function of fastening American state. Well, and finally the division of elites, which vividly appeared under the conditions of crisis.
"[Stodollarovye] notes can be frozen"
in: How will be cleft the country? It is clear: in the south - Mexico… But who still?
[o]: Only of six parts. The first - Pacific coast of the USA. Here one example can be given: in San Francisco 53% population comprise the Chinese. Ethnic Chinese was the governor of Washington, his capital Seattle is called the winches of Chinese emigration in the USA. The Pacific coast gradually falls under the influence of China, this is obvious. The second part in the south - this is actual Mexicans. There Spanish language somewhere already became state. Then Texas, which openly fights for its independence. The Atlantic coast of the USA is completely different ethnos and mentality, also it is possible to divide it into two parts. Well, and central depressive regions. I will recall that 5 central states in the USA, where Indians live, declared about their independence. This was perceived as joke, political show. But fact remains fact. The influence of Canada is strong on the north. Alaska, by the way, can require we. She indeed is leased…
in: But which in this case will be with the dollar?
[o]: Is in 2006 accepted the secret agreement between Canada, Mexico and USA about the preparation for the introduction [amero] - as of certain new monetary unit. This can indicate the preparation for the replacement of dollar. In this case the [stodollarovye] notes, which flooded peace, can be simply "frozen". Under the pretext, let us say, that them counterfeit the terrorists and they need checking.
"Opposition between the clans became open"
in: Describe in greater detail about the division of elites. These are Democrats and Republicans?
[o]: Completely no. In the management of the USA two groups. The first it is possible to name "[globalisty]" or "Trotskyites". Their idea formulated once Trotsky: to us is necessary not Russia, but world revolution. Soviet Russia they considered as base for the control over the peace. The second group - [gosudarstvenniki], which want prosperity of their country. The representatives of these two clans exist both in the Democratic Party and in the republic. Example - affirmative vote the anticrisis plan Of [polsona], proposed by republic administration. Republicans first failed it in the congress precisely.
in: But who leads clans?
[o]: [Globalistov] have the key men - Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice Vice President Dick Cheney. In [gosudarstvennikov] - Minister of Defense Robert Gates, the director of the CIA Michael [Khayden] the director of national intelligence Admiral Mike [MakKonnel]. [Globalisty] - this in essence financial elite, and [gosudarstvenniki] - armed forces, intelligence agency and [VPK]. Recently opposition between these two clans became open. In the past December [gosudarstvenniki] made a report, which completely denied the presence in Iran of nuclear program. This directly contradicted the conclusions of Dick Cheney and [Kondolizy] Rice. The second - very important - event occurred at the hearings in the congress of the USA apropos 5-day Caucasian war. [Globalisty] in the person Of [kondolizy] Rice asserted that Russia began and it will be punished for this. Georgia was the project Of [kondolizy]. But the representatives of [razvedsoobshchestva] gave the diametrically opposite statements - that began Georgia. Presently open collision of very visible political figures.
in: But with whom [Obama]?
[o]: [Gosudarstvenniki] headed by Gates were the main players, who led [Obamu] to the victory. For this they require from it a change in the general line. In this sense is very interesting the fact that Republican Gates is considered as the most important candidate - to remain the US Secretary of Defense or to become the Secretary of State. This is the influence of [gosudarstvennikov] on the President. By the way, first its conference Of [obama] conducted exactly with American [razvedsoobshchestvom].
"We must chop off the ropes, binding us [s] "[Titanikom]"
in: What the victory of [gosudarstvennikov] does indicate for Russia?
[o]: This is not bad chance for us, because precisely they came out by our allies at the Caucasian front. We see on the visit of Medvedev to the USA that it underwent no obstruction in connection with the events in the Caucasus. In Washington there was the sufficiently calm and benevolent atmosphere.
in: What to make to Russia in order to avoid shakings in connection with the possible economic collapse of the USA?
[o]: To develop ruble as regional currency. To create the finally valuable petroleum exchange, which trades for the rubles. Literally several days ago signed the agreement between Russia and Belorussia about the passage at long last into the calculations for the oil and the gas into the rubles. And this is - the beginning of the making of ruble as regional currency. For the electricity with Kazakhstan and Belorussia we already passed to our currency. And now our task - to literally prior to the end of 2008 try to conclude as much as possible contracts in 2009 in the rubles. In this case Russia will be able to leave from the global crisis, which increases. We must chop off the ropes, binding us with the financial "[Titanikom]", which, from my point of view, will go soon to the bottom.
P.S. when Igor [Panarin] described about his forecasts in the editorial staff "of Izvestia", they caused stormy discussion. We hope that also you, respected readers, to it will be joined. If to you is how to supplement this interview or to object - we wait your responses to economics@izvestia.ru.
Professor Igor Panarin: "When America collapsed into parts, a wild shout"
Russia, China and India potesnyat America. Projected U.S. intelligence for President Barack Obama
Already in autumn 2009 economic crisis could lead to civil war in the U.S., and then - to the collapse of the state apart. With such a forecast was made by an additional 10 years ago Doctor of Political Sciences, Dean of the Faculty of International Relations Diplomatic Academy of Foreign Affairs of Russia Igor Panarin. Then it forecasts looked fantastic, but now many of them come true. On Monday we present to the Court of readers a new version of events eyes of a scientist - perhaps controversial, and even scandalous. In an interview with "Izvestiya" Professor Panarin told why, in his view, the U.S. conceived monetary reform, who works for Obama and why Russia is better friends with China.
Question: Igor where any idea about the collapse of the U.S., so even in 1998 when the country prospered and was unequivocal global leader?
Answer: In September 1998, Austria was the international conference "Information warfare". There, I presented his analysis. Of the 400 participants in the room was 150 dollars, and when my presentation on the part of America collapsed in the room was a wild cry. But everything was justified. Even then it was clear that the main destructive force for the United States - Financial and economic. The dollar is not assured. External debt grew cascade, although still in the early 1980's it was not at all. In 1998 when I made my prediction, it exceeded 2 trillion dollars. Now - more than 11 trillion. This pyramid, which is sure to collapse.
in: the entire American economy would collapse?
A: It is already falling apart. The financial crisis has led to a 5 largest and oldest banks Wall Street, three have already ceased to exist, and two are on the brink of survival. Their loss - the biggest in history. Now it comes to replacing a system of regulation of global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's regulator.
Q: Who will replace her?
A: In this role, claiming two countries: China with huge reserves, and Russia - as a country that could play the role of regulator in the Eurasian space. Just ended summit "Twenty" in Washington, which has been a very remarkable event. The participants put forward a new architectonics of international relations, where the key role will belong to the IMF. But the IMF needs to finance. And the summit appealed to China and Japan with a request for money. China's reserves amount to over 2 trillion dollars, it is the largest creditor of the United States and now will inevitably affect the policy fund. Not coincidentally, by the way, Mr. Hu Jintao at the summit meeting with two leaders - our President and leader of Great Britain. It was in England anticipated spring meeting twenty. " A meeting with Russia - a country that presents basic principles for restructuring the global financial system - is also clearly fit into a vision of China's reform process.
"Kostyak, which connects the USA, fragile"
Q: world leaders is clear. But let us return to the United States. As pointed to the possibility of secession?
A: A whole range of reasons. First, financial problems in the U.S. will increase. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. There are increasing prices and unemployment. On the verge of collapse "General Motors and Ford, which meant that entire cities will be without work. Governors are already in the form of a rigid demand money from the federal government. There is a growing dissatisfaction, and so far it only hindered the election and hope that Obama performs miracles. But by spring it becomes clear that there is no miracle.
The second factor - the political organization of U.S. vulnerability. In the country there is no single legislation. Not even the general rules of the road. Backbone, which connects the USA, is fragile. Even the armed forces in Iraq represented in many non-USA, they are fighting because they promise to American citizenship. Thus, the army, as the melting pot, has ceased to serve as the attachment of American States. Well, and finally the elite division, which is clearly evident in times of crisis.
"Stodollarovye notes may be frozen
Q: How raskoletsya country? It is clear: in the south - Mexico ... And who else?
A: A total of six parts. The first - the U.S. Pacific coast. Here is one example could be: in San Francisco, 53% of the population is Chinese. Governor of Washington State was the ethnic Chinese, the capital of Seattle called the gate of Chinese emigration to the United States. The Pacific Coast gradually fell under the influence of China is obvious. The second part of the south - it is really Mexicans. There, Spanish in some places has become public. Then Texas, who openly struggling for their independence. Atlantic Coast USA is a totally different ethnicity and mindset, it also can be divided into two parts. Well, central and marginal areas. I recall that 5 central states in the U.S., where Indians have announced their independence. This was seen as a joke, a political show. But the fact remains. In the north, strongly influenced by Canada. Alaska, by the way, can we require. It has since leased ...
in: What would be the dollar?
A: In 2006, made a secret agreement between Canada, Mexico and the United States to prepare for the introduction of Ameri - as some new currency. This could mean training replacement dollar. In doing so, stodollarovye denominations, flooded the world, may simply be "frozen". Under the pretext of, say, that they forge terrorists and they need to be verified.
"The confrontation between the clans has been open"
in: Tell us more about the elite division. That Democrats and Republicans?
A: Not at all. The guide USA two groups. The first could be called "globalists" or "trotskisty." Their idea put forward once Trotsky: we need not Russia, and world revolution. Soviet Russia they were seen as a base for control over the world. The second group - statesmen who want prosperity for their country. Representatives of the two clans have, and the Democratic Party and the Republican. Example - Voting for the crisis Paulson plan proposed by the Republican administration. First, it failed in Congress, it is the Republicans.
in: Who leads the clans?
A: There globalists key figures - Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Vice President Dick Cheney. There statesmen - Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, CIA Director Michael Hayden and Director of National Intelligence Admiral Mike MakKonnel. Globalists - is mostly financial elite, and statesmen - the Armed Forces, security services and military-industrial complex. In recent confrontation between the two clans was open. Last December statesmen were made to the report, which completely denied the existence of Iran's nuclear program. This directly contradicts the conclusions of Dick Cheney and Condoleezza Rice. The second - very important - event occurred at a hearing in the U.S. Congress over the 5-day Caucasian war. Globalists in the person of Condoleezza Rice argued that the start of Russia and will be punished for it. Georgia was Condoleezza project. And representatives razvedsoobschestva made diametrically opposed statements - that the beginning of Georgia. There was an open clash very prominent political figures.
in: A who's Obama?
A: statesmen led by Geytsom were major players, which led Obama to victory. For this, they require a change in general line. In this sense, is very interesting that the Republican Gates is viewed as the most important candidate - remains defense minister or become U.S. Secretary of State. This influence statesmen of the President. Incidentally, the first time Obama held a meeting just with razvedsoobschestvom American.
"We must obrubit cords that connect us with" Titanic "
Q: What statesmen victory mean for Russia?
A: For us, this is a good chance because they were made by our allies in the Caucasus Front. On a visit Medvedev in the U.S., we see that he has not been any obstruction in connection with events in the Caucasus. In Washington, was fairly quiet and sympathetic atmosphere.
Q: What do Russia, to avoid disruption in connection with a possible economic collapse of the U.S.?
A: Develop ruble as a regional currency. Create finally a full-fledged oil exchange trading in rubles. Just a few days ago an agreement was signed between Russia and Belarus to move finally, in payment for oil and gas in rubles. And it is - the beginning of the process of becoming the ruble as a regional currency. For electricity with Kazakhstan and Belarus, we have moved our currency. And now our task - just before the end of 2008 to try to conclude as many contracts in 2009 in rubles. In this case, Russia could withdraw from the global crisis that is growing. We must obrubit cords that connect us with a financial Titanic, "which, in my view, will shortly to the bottom.
P.S. When Igor Panarin told about their forecasts as amended "Izvestia", they have aroused heated debate. We hope that you, dear readers, to join. If you have something to follow up this interview or object - are waiting for your response to economics@izvestia.ru.
Иллюстрация: Константин Валов
Россия, Китай и Индия потеснят Америку. Прогноз разведки США для президента Барака Обамы
Уже осенью 2009 года экономический кризис может привести к гражданской войне в США, а затем - к развалу государства на части. С таким прогнозом выступил еще 10 лет назад доктор политических наук, декан факультета "Международные отношения" Дипломатической академии МИД России Игорь Панарин. Тогда его прогнозы выглядели фантастическими, но сейчас многие из них сбываются. В понедельник мы представляем на суд читателей новую версию развития событий глазами ученого - возможно, спорную и даже скандальную. В интервью "Известиям" профессор Панарин рассказал, зачем, по его мнению, США задумали денежную реформу, на кого работает Обама и почему России лучше дружить с Китаем.
вопрос: Игорь Николаевич, откуда вообще появилась идея о развале США, да еще в 1998 году, когда эта страна процветала и была безоговорочным мировым лидером?
ответ: В сентябре 1998 года в Австрии проходила международная конференция "Информационная война". Там я и представил свои аналитические выкладки. Из 400 участников в зале было 150 представителей США, и когда в моей презентации Америка развалилась на части, в зале был дикий крик. Но все было обосновано. Уже тогда было ясно, что главная разрушительная сила для США - финансово-экономическая. Доллар ничем не обеспечен. Внешний долг страны рос лавинообразно, хотя еще в начале 1980-х его не было вовсе. В 1998-м, когда я делал свой прогноз, он превысил 2 триллиона долларов. Сейчас - более 11 триллионов. Это пирамида, которая обязательно рухнет.
в: Рухнет вся американская экономика?
о: Она уже рушится. Финансовый кризис привел к тому, что из 5 крупнейших и старейших банков Wall Street три уже перестали существовать, а два находятся на грани выживания. Их потери - самые большие в истории. Теперь речь идет о замене системы регуляции в глобальном финансовом масштабе: Америка больше не будет мировым регулятором.
в: Кто же ее заменит?
о: На эту роль претендуют две страны: Китай с огромными резервами и Россия - как страна, которая могла бы играть роль регулятора на евразийском пространстве. Только что закончился саммит "двадцатки" в Вашингтоне, на котором произошло очень примечательное событие. Участники выдвинули новую архитектонику международных отношений, где ключевая роль будет принадлежать МВФ. Но МВФ нуждается в финансах. И участники саммита обратились к Китаю и Японии с просьбой о выделении денег. Золотовалютные резервы Китая составляют более 2 триллионов долларов, он является крупнейшим кредитором США и теперь неизбежно будет влиять на политику фонда. Не случайно, кстати, господин Ху Цзиньтао на саммите встретился с двумя лидерами - нашим президентом и руководителем Великобритании. Именно в Англии предполагается весенняя встреча "двадцатки". А встреча с Россией - как страной, которая выдвигает базовые принципы переустройства мировой финансовой системы, - тоже четко укладывается в видение китайского процесса реформирования.
"Костяк, который соединяет США, хрупок"
в: С мировыми лидерами все ясно. Но вернемся к США. Что указывает на возможность раскола страны?
о: Целый комплекс причин. Во-первых, финансовые проблемы в США будут усиливаться. Миллионы граждан там лишились своих сбережений. В стране растут цены и безработица. На грани краха "Дженерал моторс" и "Форд", а это значит, что целые города окажутся без работы. Губернаторы уже в жесткой форме требуют денег от федерального центра. Растет недовольство, и пока его сдерживали только выборы и надежда на то, что Обама совершит чудо. Но уже к весне станет ясно, что чуда нет.
Второй фактор - уязвимое политическое устройство США. На территории страны не существует единого законодательства. Нет даже общих правил дорожного движения. Костяк, который соединяет США, достаточно хрупок. Даже вооруженные силы в Ираке представлены во многом негражданами США, они воюют потому, что им обещают американское гражданство. Таким образом, армия, как плавильный котел, уже перестала выполнять функцию скрепления американского государства. Ну, и, наконец, раскол элит, который ярко проявился в условиях кризиса.
"Стодолларовые купюры могут быть заморожены"
в: Как расколется страна? Ясно: на юге - Мексика... А кто еще?
о: Всего шесть частей. Первая - Тихоокеанское побережье США. Здесь один пример можно привести: в Сан-Франциско 53% населения составляют китайцы. Губернатором штата Вашингтон был этнический китаец, его столицу Сиэтл называют воротами китайской эмиграции в США. Тихоокеанское побережье постепенно подпадает под влияние Китая, это очевидно. Вторая часть на юге - это действительно мексиканцы. Там испанский язык кое-где уже стал государственным. Потом Техас, который открыто борется за свою независимость. Атлантическое побережье США представляет собой совершенно другой этнос и менталитет, его тоже можно разделить на две части. Ну, и центральные депрессивные районы. Я напомню, что 5 центральных штатов в США, где проживают индейцы, объявили о своей независимости. Это было воспринято как шутка, политическое шоу. Но факт остается фактом. На севере сильно влияние Канады. Аляску, кстати, можем потребовать мы. Она ведь сдана в аренду...
в: А что при этом будет с долларом?
о: В 2006 году принято секретное соглашение между Канадой, Мексикой и США о подготовке к введению амеро - как некоей новой денежной единицы. Это может означать подготовку замены доллара. При этом стодолларовые купюры, наводнившие мир, могут быть просто "заморожены". Под предлогом, скажем, того, что их подделывают террористы и они нуждаются в проверке.
"Противостояние между кланами стало открытым"
в: Расскажите подробнее про раскол элит. Это демократы и республиканцы?
о: Вовсе нет. В руководстве США две группировки. Первую можно назвать "глобалисты" или "троцкисты". Их идею сформулировал когда-то Троцкий: нам нужна не Россия, а мировая революция. Советскую Россию они рассматривали как базу для контроля над миром. Вторая группировка - государственники, которые хотят процветания своей страны. Представители этих двух кланов есть и в Демократической партии, и в Республиканской. Пример - голосование за антикризисный план Полсона, предложенный республиканской администрацией. Сначала его провалили в конгрессе именно республиканцы.
в: А кто руководит кланами?
о: У глобалистов ключевые фигуры - госсекретарь Кондолиза Райс и вице-президент Дик Чейни. У государственников - министр обороны Роберт Гейтс, директор ЦРУ Майкл Хайден и директор национальной разведки адмирал Майк МакКоннел. Глобалисты - это в основном финансовая элита, а государственники - Вооруженные силы, спецслужбы и ВПК. В последнее время противостояние между этими двумя кланами стало открытым. В прошлом декабре государственники выступили с докладом, который полностью отрицал наличие у Ирана ядерной программы. Это прямо противоречило выводам Дика Чейни и Кондолизы Райс. Второе - очень важное - событие произошло на слушаниях в конгрессе США по поводу 5-дневной кавказской войны. Глобалисты в лице Кондолизы Райс утверждали, что начала Россия и она будет наказана за это. Грузия была проектом Кондолизы. А представители разведсообщества выступили с диаметрально противоположными заявлениями - что начала Грузия. Налицо открытое столкновение очень видных политических фигур.
в: А с кем Обама?
о: Государственники во главе с Гейтсом являлись главными игроками, которые привели Обаму к победе. За это они требуют от него изменения генеральной линии. В этом смысле очень интересен факт, что республиканец Гейтс рассматривается как самый важный кандидат - остаться министром обороны США или стать госсекретарем. Это влияние государственников на президента. Кстати, первое свое совещание Обама провел как раз с американским разведсообществом.
"Мы должны обрубить веревки, связывающие нас с "Титаником"
в: Что победа государственников означает для России?
о: Для нас это неплохой шанс, потому что именно они выступили нашими союзниками на кавказском фронте. По визиту Медведева в США мы видим, что он не подвергся никакой обструкции в связи с событиями на Кавказе. В Вашингтоне была достаточно спокойная и благожелательная атмосфера.
в: Что делать России, чтобы избежать потрясений в связи с возможным экономическим коллапсом США?
о: Развивать рубль как региональную валюту. Создавать наконец полноценную нефтяную биржу, торгующую за рубли. Буквально несколько дней назад подписано соглашение между Россией и Белоруссией о переходе наконец-то в расчеты за нефть и газ в рубли. И это - начало процесса становления рубля как и региональной валюты. За электричество с Казахстаном и Белоруссией мы уже перешли на нашу валюту. И теперь наша задача - буквально до конца 2008 года постараться заключить как можно больше контрактов на 2009 год в рублях. В этом случае Россия сможет уйти от глобального кризиса, который нарастает. Мы должны обрубить веревки, связывающие нас с финансовым "Титаником", который, с моей точки зрения, пойдет в ближайшее время ко дну.
P.S. Когда Игорь Панарин рассказал о своих прогнозах в редакции "Известий", они вызвали бурную дискуссию. Надеемся, что и вы, уважаемые читатели, к ней присоединитесь. Если вам есть чем дополнить это интервью или возразить - ждем ваших откликов по адресу economics@izvestia.ru.
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