Britannia Radio

CHINA CONFIDENTIAL

Monday, December 01, 2008

 

Gold Declines in Asia

Gold declined for the first time in three days in Asia as crude oil fell and equities dropped after U.S. retailers had the smallest gain for “Black Friday” holiday sales in three years.

Bullion also fell as the euro declined against the dollar on expectations the European Central Bank will trim borrowing costs this week. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six trading partners, rose for a second day.

“Gold will continue trading in the $750 to $850 range in the near term as flight-to-safety buying offsets reduced demand for an inflation hedge,” Zhu Bin, head of research at Nanhua Futures Co., said from Hangzhou.


- Bloomberg

# posted by Confidential Reporter @ 1:03 AM 

Sunday, November 30, 2008

 

Complex Oil Outlook for Coming Year

Foreign Confidential....

The oil outlook is complex.

On the one hand, the market is clearly over-supplied. 

On the other hand, a combination of a cold snap in the United States and OPEC production cuts could push crude prices higher despite the global economic meltdown.

That said, Saudi officials' stated target of $75 per-barrel oil is probably just public relations. The kingdom does not need $75, unlike Iran and Venezuela.

# posted by Confidential Reporter @ 10:34 PM 

 

Top Hotels Increasingly Targeted by Terrorists

Foreign Confidential....

Intelligence experts say leading international hotels are tempting targets for terrorists. 

Greg Katz reports:

Across the world, the finest hotels draw foreign businessmen, droves of tourists, and local movers and shakers who crowd the restaurants and bars to see and be seen. There are society weddings, banquets and even "Sweet Sixteen" birthday parties for the daughters of the well-to-do.

In places where Western-style amenities are rare, international hotels are often the most vital connection to the rest of the world. Their business model demands openness and accessibility for visitors and guests, making total security virtually impossible despite security barriers, metal detectors and high-tech surveillance gear.

That's why, experts say, hotels have been attacked by terrorists in Pakistan, Jordan, Afghanistan and now Mumbai, India, where commandos battled security forces for three days in a deadly rampage focused on the renowned Taj Mahal and Oberoi hotels.

"There is obviously a trend for hotels to be targets," said Christopher Newberry, general manager of the Serena Hotel in Kabul, Afghanistan, where three militants slaughtered eight guests in January.

Continue here.

# posted by Confidential Reporter @ 10:25 PM 

 

China's Economy Could Grow by 10% Next Year

China's economy may grow 10% next year, according to China Confidential analysts, thanks to a massive government stimulus of at least $800 billion. Measures to ease the tax burden on consumers and support the stock market--direct stock market intervention in response to an anticipated major correction--are also in the works. 

The World Bank disagrees. It forecasts 7.5% growth in China in 2009.

# posted by Confidential Reporter @ 9:13 PM 

 

Did Pakistan Aid the Assault on Mumbai?

The prime suspect for the attack on Mumbai, Lashkar-e-Toiba, is the biggest and most violent of the Islamist groups fighting against India for a separate Kashmir. It has also, over the years, built up close links with al-Qa'ida and ISI, the Pakistani intelligence service.

It is Lashkar's policy of bombings and shootings within India as well as Kashmir that has brought Pakistan and India, two nuclear-armed powers, to the brink of conflict in recent years. The link to the ISI, often described as a state-within-a-state in Pakistan, may again shift relations between India and Pakistan to incendiary levels if evidence is uncovered that the intelligence organisation was involved in the attack.

Click here to continue.

# posted by Confidential Reporter @ 8:59 PM 

 

Oil Rebound at Least Two Years Away

Concerned about a possible return to crushingly high crude oil prices?

There is good news and bad news on that score.

The good news is that a rebound in the oil markets is at least two years away.

The bad news is that a rebound in the oil markets is at least two years away--meaning, oil will come roaring back and oil-importing nations will suffer terribly.

In 2011, China Confidential analysts say, demand in China and India could outstrip supply and send oil prices soaring. 

In order to meet rising demand, national and multinational oil companies will have to bring twice as much newly found oil onto the market in the next 22 years than what they did in the last 22 years. In other words, large oil companies will have to find and deliver 70 million barrels a day of new supply to the market. Few analysts expect that will happen. 

As the world runs on oil and is likely to continue to run on oil for the next two decades, regardless of the investments in conservation and alternative energy, the case for a national oil company in the United States is extremely compelling. The U.S. sits atop enormous, untapped oil reserves, including heavy oil and onshore and offshore conventional oil; but while these resources may be profitable in principle, even at today's prices, they are not profitable enough for multinationals addicted to relatively cheap reserves of foreign oil.

# posted by Confidential Reporter @ 7:19 PM 

 

Saudis Likely to Buy More Gold, Sell Oil for Gold

Foreign Confidential....

Saudi Arabia is increasingly bearish on the dollar--and bullish on gold.

Greg Pinelli, meanwhile, makes a convincing case for (a) further gold purchases by the Gulf states, and (b) a new role for the precious metal. 

The twin conundrums the Kuwaitis and Saudis have faced in particular is how to protect themselves from the fallout of either unacceptably low or high oil prices and (critically) depreciating value of the currency they receive for their precious oil - US Dollars.

The solution to the two great concerns for the future - "What to do after oil?" and "How do we retain value from our Dollar payouts?" may rest with gold. It most certainly doesn't lie with an alternate paper currency. The EURO is rife with issues, not the least of which is reconciling drastically different nation states to a common economic vision and financial execution. The YEN is as dramatically leveraged as the US$, burdened by debt and a flagging international heft.

The answer? Initiation of a new payment regime - a 10% gold payment share between 2009 and 2012, 20% thereafter. The rest of the bill? Payable in US$. Gold has a long and very respected history in the Middle East. It is already held in very sizeable amounts by the Saudis and Kuwaitis. New gold, however, could be used to satisfy the region's concern for its following generations. It would form, literally, the foundation for mega banking centers and the stabilization of the currency they will still need to receive in mountain like proportions in the future.

Click here to read the whole analysis.

# posted by Confidential Reporter @ 6:43 PM 

 

Gold May Rise for Fifth Straight Week

Foreign Confidential....

Bloomberg's Claudia Carpenter reports from London that gold may rise for a fifth straight week on speculation the dollar will extend a decline, increasing demand for the precious metal as an alternative investment.

Carpenter says 22 of 35 traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Melbourne to Dallas from Nov. 26 to Nov. 28 advised buying gold, which climbed 3.4 percent last week to $819 an ounce in New York. Eight said to sell; five were neutral.

# posted by Confidential Reporter @ 6:27 PM