Saturday, January 24, 2009
Majority of Americans Sympathetic Toward Israel
A majority of Americans sympathized more with the Israelis than the Palestinians during the recent war in the Gaza Strip, according to a CNN opinion poll that points to a divergence from European views of the conflict.
Continue here.
Sixty percent of Americans in the nationwide survey said they were sympathetic toward the Israelis, compared with 17 percent who supported the Palestinians, CNN reported today on its Web site. A recent European poll showed that 23 percent of French people said the Palestinian Hamas group was primarily responsible for the war while 18 percent mainly blamed Israel.
The results indicate Israel successfully communicated in the U.S. its view that it had to defend itself against rocket attacks from the militant Hamas organization that controls Gaza and is considered a terrorist group by the U.S. and European Union. More than 1,300 Palestinians and 13 Israelis died in the 22-day war.Friday, January 23, 2009
The Lessons of Mumbai According to RAND
The Mumbai terrorist attacks in India suggest the possibility of an escalating terrorist campaign in South Asia and the rise of a strategic terrorist culture, according to a study issued by the RAND Corporation.
The RAND study identifies the operational and tactical features of the attack, evaluates the response of Indian security forces, and analyzes the implications for India, Pakistan and the United States.
“India will continue to face a serious jihadist threat from Pakistan-based terrorist groups, and neither Indian nor U.S. policy is likely to reduce that threat in the near future,” said Angel Rabasa, lead author of the study and a senior political scientist with RAND, a nonprofit research organization. “Other extremist groups in Pakistan likely will find inspiration in the Mumbai attacks, and we can expect more attacks with high body counts and symbolic targets.”
Multiple Targets and Objectives
Mumbai is India's commercial and entertainment center, and the attacks on landmark properties amplified the psychological impact, according to the report. The selection of multiple targets—Americans, Britons and Jews, as well as Indians—suggests that the terrorists intended the attack to serve multiple objectives that extended beyond the terrorists' previous focus on Kashmir and India.
“The defining characteristic of the Mumbai attack, and what makes it so alarming, is not just the ruthless killing, but the meticulous planning and preparation that went into the operation,” said Brian Michael Jenkins, a leading terrorism expert and senior advisor at RAND.
“The goal was not only to slaughter as many people as possible, but to target specific groups of people and facilities with political, cultural and emotional value. This indicates a level of strategic thought—a strategic culture—that poses a difficult challenge: not whether we can outgun the terrorists, but can we outthink them?”
Audacity and Ambition
The Mumbai attacks are significant in their audacity and ambition, as well as the complexity of the operation and the diversity of targets, according to researchers. Evidence suggests that planning for the attacks began as far back as mid-2007. The terrorists were heavily armed, and had detailed maps and information about each of the targets they hit. The multiple targets were carefully chosen for their religious, political and cultural values in order to make a statement.
One of the main lessons of Mumbai is that it exposed numerous weaknesses in India's counter-terrorism and threat mitigation structure, according to the report. Indian intelligence officials had received prior warnings from their own staff, as well as U.S. sources, that a major attack was probable, but did not take any specific action.
The report analyzes key weaknesses in the country's general counter-terrorism and threat-mitigation structure, including gaps in coastal surveillance, inadequate “target hardening,” incomplete execution of response protocols, response timing problems, inadequate counter-terrorism training and equipment for the local police, limitations of municipal fire and emergency services, flawed hostage-rescue plans, and poor strategic communications and information management.
The Mumbai terrorist attack has significant and potentially far-reaching implications for India, Pakistan, and the international community, according to researchers. The terrorists have been linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba, a banned Islamist terrorist group based in Pakistan with connections to Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency.
Nuclear Pakistan
India is likely to hold the state of Pakistan responsible for the attacks and may look for a way to punish Pakistan to deter future attacks. Both countries have nuclear weapons, making any military action a dangerous course, but if India does not respond, that would signal a lack of Indian resolve or capability, according to the report.
Without an appropriate response, Pakistan, or at least those elements of its military and intelligence leadership that are supportive of the activities of groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba, are likely to conclude that these operations, in some measure, yield benefits that exceed the cost. For these and a myriad other reasons, researchers say, India is likely to remain a target of Pakistan-based and indigenous Islamist terrorism for the foreseeable future.
But the focus on Pakistan should not obscure the fact that the terrorists likely had help from inside India. Local radicalization is a major goal of the terrorists, and will be a major political and social challenge for India.
The repercussions for Pakistan will depend largely on what India and the international community do. Thus far, Indian and American officials recognize that Pakistan's civilian government does not control the policies that its military and intelligence agency hold toward militant groups operating in and from Pakistan.
According to the RAND researchers, the best outcome would be for Pakistan's civilian government to slowly and incrementally exert civilian control over its military and intelligence agencies. But this will be difficult as many in those agencies view the Taliban and other extremists as their natural allies, and the United States and India as threats to Pakistan's security.
The Mumbai attack underscores the imperative of addressing the transnational sources of Islamist terrorism in India. How to do this is an extraordinarily difficult question that will require the reassessment of basic assumptions in policy toward Pakistan by members of the international community.
The study, “The Lessons of Mumbai,” can be found here.Russian Oil Companies Agree to Help Cuba
Foreign Confidential....
Russian oil companies will help Cubapetroleo with prospecting, production, refining and other aspects of the oil industry under an agreement signed in Moscow Friday ahead of Cuban President Raul Castro's visit next week.
The memorandum was signed by representatives of Cubapetroleo and a Russian consortium comprising Gazprom Neft, TNK-BP, Zarubezhneft, Rosneft and Surgutneftegaz.Maoist Rebels Strike Eastern India
A day-long strike called by Maoists in eastern India to protest rising prices and police atrocities against villagers shut down factories and shops in the region's rural belt on Thursday.
Rebels also set fire to lorries and destroyed a mobile phone tower.
The strike affected the three states of Jharkhand, Bihar and Orissa, stopping work at mines and blocking highways.
The Maoists, who say they are fighting for the rights of poor peasants and landless laborers, routinely call strikes, attack government property, and target local politicians.
The foreign press has largely ignored the rebels; but Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has called them the biggest challenge to India's internal securityA Specter is Haunting China
China Confidential will be four years old this April. The blog was born in strife--a response to government-orchestrated, anti-Japanese riots and protests that swept Chinese cities.
The fourth anniversary of those events--and this blog--will probably coincide with a much more massive manifestation of protest, according to China Confidential analysts and intelligence experts.
They predict protests and riots, commencing in March, as a result of a worsening economic situation. The upheaval will be unprecedented in the history of Chinese Communist Party rule.
It is too late for stimulus. The government's focus on rescuing the businesses of the ruling elite will backfire big time.
Scenario for Rebellion
The rebellion will probably start in the countryside (it always does in China) with an increasingly restive group--millions of recently laid-off and desperately poor migrant workers forced to return to their rural home villages after toiling in construction and other jobs in once-booming coastal cities. All told, there may be 200 million migrant workers in China; they are known as the "floating population." Rural areas depend on their remittences.
More than six million migrant workers are probably already unemployed--double the official estimate. In short order, the number of unemployed migrant workers could exceed 10 million.
The unemployed migrant workers--who have no social safety net and nothing to lose--will rise up and be joined by millions of left-behind peasants.
Corrupt local officials and land speculators will be slaughtered. The police will be powerless to save them. The rapid-response riot squads will be overwhelmed.
The upheaval will spread to the cities.
The "mass incidents," in Chinese Communist Party parlance, will probably peak sometime in April. By this time, analysts predict, the men who really rule China--the men in uniform--will move to restore order. Rather than simply crushing the demonstrations, the People's Liberation Army will try to harness and use the popular revolt.
A coup is likely, followed by a populist, leftward shift--perhaps, even, a new revolution from the top.
China Confidential can report that underground New Left and Maoist study groups are proliferating.
A specter is haunting China....Icelanders Hurl Yogurt, Demand Change
Foreign Confidential....
Another sign of changing--and frightening--times. REYKJAVIK, Iceland – Protesters hurled dairy products and rage at their elected leaders here during increasingly violent demonstrations this week over the handling of the country’s collapsing economy.
Parliament was suspended Wednesday and the prime minister’s limousine was attacked with snowballs and eggs.
Demonstrators are calling for immediate elections, but the prime minister appeared on television Wednesday night, saying his government has no intention of stepping down.
Both sides, it seems, are digging in for a fight.
The protesters are said to be envious of Americans for electing Barack Obama. Click hereto continue.
UPDATE: Prime Minister Geir Haarde announced on Friday he would step down and seek an early election in May. Haarde, 57, is a U.S.-trained economist who has led Iceland's government since 2006 and his eurosceptic Independence Party from 2005. Previously he served as foreign and finance minister and as an economist with Iceland's central bank.
Sunday, 25 January 2009
Viola Gienger reports:
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