Military analysts: Afghanistan War is unwinnable – even with boosted coalition strength
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis
July 11, 2009, 9:23 AM (GMT+02:00)
US Marines in Operation Strike of the Sword
The approximately 60,000 NATO forces fighting in Afghanistan are unable to achieve the goals of the war - even with the additional 21,000 US combat troops promised this year and "the big jump in the size of Afghan security forces" demanded by the new US commander, Gen. Stanley McChrystal.
DEBKAfile's military analysts see no real corroboration for the UK Chief of Defense Staff Sir Jock Stirrup's assertion that the Taliban is "losing" in Afghanistan and "real governance" is emerging in Afghanistan.
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Show trials, possible execution, hang over "US agent" Mousavi
DEBKAfile Exclusive report
July 4, 2009, 4:40 PM (GMT+02:00)
Has the supreme leader turned against opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi?
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, driven by a thirst for revenge, is preparing a wave of show trials, public confessions and executions to crush the opposition which dared to refute the legitimacy of his election. The West, especially the Obama administration, hoping the bloody crackdown was over, can forget about re-engaging Tehran in talks on the nuclear controversy any time soon, when Mir Hossein Mousavi and the reformist ex-president Mohammed Khatami are denounced for "acting as America's fifth column."
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Iran in mass production of long-range, solid-fuel Sejil surface missiles
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
July 13, 2009, 9:29 AM (GMT+02:00)
Iran's advanced Sejil II surface missile
Iran is slowing down the manufacture of the Shehab-3 surface missile in favor of mass production of the more accurate two-stage 2,000-kilometer range Sejil II ballistic missile powered with solid fuel, which was successfully tested on May 20, DEBKAfile's military and Iranian sources report.
More than 1,000 new Sejil IIs are projected to come off production lines in five years, at the rate of 200 a year.
Western sources say the Iranians are over-ambitious and can deliver no more than 10-15 missiles a year at present, although with a huge multi-billion dollar investment they might raise output to 30.
Liquid-fuel missiles like the Shehab take hours to prepare for firing, during which time they are exposed to oversight by US and Israel spy satellites, whereas the Sejil because it is powered by solid fuel has the huge advantage of stealth. It can only be detected by military satellites and early warning radar systems like the American FBX-T posted in the Israeli Negev after it is airborne and winging towards target.
Iran has also recruited Chinese missile experts to assist in the production of mobile launchers for the Sejil II. The combination of the solid-fuel Sejil mounted on mobile vehicles will give an Iranian missile attack the advantage of surprise, because of the difficulty of tracking and targeting them from space or the air.
DEBKAfile's military sources add that Iran is going all out to fill its arsenal with Sejil II missiles for outwitting Israel's Arrow interceptors if and when they attack Israel. Western missile experts calculate that if Iran lets loose against Israel a simultaneous barrage of dozens of Shehab-3 and a handful of Sejil II, the Arrow will only intercept some of them; the rest will reach their targets.
Iran's arms industry is driving forward at top speed to attain this capability. Israel has entered the arms race by stepping up production of the Arrow anti-missile systems.
At some point, Israel strategists had hoped the surge of unrest in Tehran sparked by the disputed June 12 presidential election would result in the regime pulling funds out of nuclear and missile industries and investing in projects for improving the lives of the disaffected populace. But the challenge to its authority has had the opposite effect. The Islamic rulers have opted for speeding up weapons production and maximizing their tools of war rather than home benefits.
While Netanyahu calls for peace talks, Arab rulers pursue US-backed ploy to validate Hamas
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis
July 13, 2009, 12:18 PM (GMT+02:00)
Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu
Hardly a day has passed in recent weeks without Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu appealing to Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) to join him in peace negotiations. Sunday, July 12, this appeal was particularly inappropriate, issued as it was at a ceremony marking the 105th anniversary of the death of Binyamin Zeev Herzl, who envisioned the Jewish state which is anathema to the Palestinians.
A few hours later, Abu Mazen's spokesmen, Saeb Erakat and Abu Rodeina, predictably spurned the invitation. Before negotiations, they said, Israel must accept the Palestinian refugees "right of return" and halt all settlement activity without exception.
Abbas will do what he can to push Netanyahu up against the wall vis-a-vis the Obama administration and the European Union by shutting the door on negotiations and forcing Israel to make the running. The Palestinian government in Ramallah is playing these games although the chairman and prime minister rule without legitimacy under the Palestinian constitution and against the will of the Hamas majority in their parliament. However their machinations are working fine because Washington, which does not object to engaging Tehran despite its brutal crackdown on domestic dissent, is not pressuring the Palestinians in any way.
DEBKAfile's Washington sources disclose that the Obama administration is not waiting for Netanyahu or Abu Mazen to come together. It has laid odds on the Saudi-Egyptian bid to heal the inter-Arab quarrel with the Syrian president Bashar Assad after which they will join forces to broker reconciliation between Abbas' Fatah and its rival Hamas in the Gaza Strip. They will try and persuade the rival Palestinian factions, which have refused to share power, to rule their separate territories under the authority of a supreme Palestinian Council.
This device, the Saudis, Egyptians and the Americans believe, will circumvent the two main hurdles blocking progress in Middle East peacemaking: The split between the Fatah governments ruling the West Bank and the Hamas regime controlling the Gaza Strip, and the participation of the extremist Hamas in peace talks.
A Palestinian supreme council will let Hamas off the hook of recognizing Israel as stipulated by the Middle East Quartet, while its own legitimacy is accepted. Netanyahu will be expected to conduct talks with a legitimate Palestinian government in which Hamas is not physically present at the negotiating table but yet holds veto power over its conduct and outcome.
For now, the entire peace process is in abeyance until Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Syria, wind up their scheme, which means that Netanyahu's willingness to enter into talks with Mahmoud Abbas immediately is irrelevant.
The success of that scheme will be apparent if and when Saudi King Abdullah pays a landmark visit to Damascus to mark the end of the long breach between him and Assad.
The European Union external affairs executive Javier Solana knows exactly what is going on in the Middle East, but in his last months in office, he is trying to make his mark before retiring.
Without asking EU leaders, Solana Monday, July 13, proposed setting a deadline for Israel-Palestinian peace talks after which the UN Security Council would unilaterally proclaim and recognize the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Our sources report that the European diplomat hopes by this ruse to degrade direct Israel-Palestinian peace negotiations as the determining factor of a final status accord. And if prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu laid down terms, he would find himself on a collision course not only with Washington and Brussels but also with the United Nations. And last but not least, Solana would like to throw a spanner in the works of the US-Egyptian-Saudi-Syrian master plan in which European was not granted any role.
Netanyahu knows that, as matters stand now, his invitation to the Palestinians to start peace talks at once is just a voice in the wilderness which no one is going to heed. If like US president Barack Obama he is waiting for the Saudi and Syrian rulers to patch up their quarrel and pursue their Palestinian plan, the prime minister should say so openly and state where he stands. Israel needs to define its position clearly on this crucial step.
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