Monday, 21 September 2009
The mist parts from time to time and we get a glimpse at the real situation. Of course, should the Irish find their nerve and vote NO again all of this is academic.
The Czech position does not now seem to depend solely on the steadfastness of one man but also on a number of senators and a challenge in the Constitutional Court to the Treaty as a whole.
Christina
TELEGRAPH 21.9.09
1. Czech delay could mean British referendum on Lisbon Treaty
David Cameron might be able to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty because the Czech Republic will probably delay its ratification of the agreement until after a general election in Britain, European Union leaders have been told.
By Bruno Waterfield in Brussels and James Kirkup
Jan Fischer, the Czech prime minister, has privately warned other EU leaders that a legal challenge could impose a "long delay" on his country's ratification, perhaps until after the British election, widely expected next May.
Mr Cameron has pledged to put the Lisbon Treaty, formerly the European Union's constitution, to a popular vote in Britain as long as it has not been ratified by all 27 member states. If every country has given its approval and the Treaty has officially come into force, Mr Cameron's options would be extremely limited.
Opinion polls suggest that Irish voters will endorse the agreement in a referendum next month, while Germany and Poland are close to completing their own ratifications, leaving the Czech Republic as the only laggard.
The delay in Prague might create an opening for Mr Cameron – assuming he wins a British election – to hold a referendum in his first weeks in office.
Sources told The Daily Telegraph that EU leaders learned of the development during private – and ill-tempered – talks in Brussels last Thursday. Senior diplomats said that President Nicolas Sarkozy of France erupted with "fury" after Mr Fischer raised the prospect of a long delay.
"Sarkozy exploded and described the Czech position as scandalous and unacceptable," said an EU diplomat. "He warned the Czechs to get it 'sorted out' quickly if Ireland votes 'Yes', as the Irish Prime Minister had just told them is likely."
Mr Sarkozy then threatened the Czech leader with unspecified "consequences" if Prague allowed the delay to trigger a British referendum that would probably lead to the Lisbon Treaty's rejection.
"There is no question that we will accept to stay in a no-man's land with a Europe that does not have the institutions to cope with the crisis," the French president is believed to have said.
The Conservatives want to keep the Treaty unratified until after the British election – and they have privately urged the Czechs to drag their feet. "We've made ourselves quite clear. The Czechs know where we stand on this and what we hope for," said a Tory source.
If, however, Mr Cameron wins power and the Lisbon Treaty has come into force, he has not spelt out what would follow, saying only that he would "not let matters rest there". Privately, Mr Cameron's aides are worried that he would then come under pressure from eurosceptic Tories to hold a referendum even on a ratified treaty.
This would effectively become a vote on whether Britain should stay in the EU – and Mr Cameron would be highly reluctant to allow such a referendum. William Hague, the shadow foreign secretary, has privately called this issue a "ticking time bomb" under Mr Cameron's leadership.
A group of Czech senators, supported by Vaclav Klaus, the country’s eurosceptic president are planning a detailed constitutional challenge to the Lisbon treaty.
2. (Leader) Lisbon Treaty: Czech Republic offers hope of a referendum
Telegraph View: The British public is rightly alarmed by the implications of signing up to the Lisbon Treaty. Let's hope the Czechs come to our rescue.
As we report today, the Czech Republic may be forced by a legal challenge to delay ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. This development has provoked a furious response from President Sarkozy of France. He "exploded" when he heard the news, according to an EU diplomat, and is threatening the Czechs with unspecified "consequences" if they do not speed things up.
The reason for Mr Sarkozy's fury? If a Czech referendum is delayed until May, then Britain's political parties could well go into the next general election with the treaty unratified. And that would allow David Cameron, if he wins the election, to fulfil his promise of a British referendum on Lisbon, as long as it has not been ratified by all 27 member states of the EU. If, on the other hand, the Irish vote "yes" and the Czechs have formally approved the treaty, then Mr Cameron would find himself in the awkward position of having to choose whether to hold a referendum on a ratified treaty, in the face of overwhelming opposition from the rest of the EU and much of the British political establishment. No wonder William Hague, the shadow foreign secretary, has privately described Europe as the "ticking time bomb" under Mr Cameron's leadership.
The British public is rightly alarmed by the implications of signing up to what amounts to a European Constitution. As a poll in The Sunday Telegraph revealed yesterday, 70 per cent of people want the chance to vote on the Lisbon treaty even if it is already law. The best chance of a referendum taking place is a legal challenge in Prague. We must keep our fingers crossed and hope that the Czechs come to our rescue.
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