Christina POLITICAL BETTING 21.9.09 And the “others” total drop to just 12% The September ICM poll for the Guardian is just out and shows the Tories up a couple of points with Labour up one - all within the margin of error. So the September polling is following August and we are seeing very little change. Perhaps the significant move is the decreasing share for “other” parties which has been at a high level since the Euro elections in June. The 17% Tory lead is the second highest ever in the Guardian series of polls which began in 1984. Less than half those who told ICM that they voted Labour in 2005 plan to do so again So we go into the Labour conference next week with a pretty solid range of different surveys all pointing to the same general election outcome. It’s hard to point to any glimmers of hope for the party and it’s hard to argue other than the Tories are set to win big. [UK Polling Report's calculator gives them an overall majority of 122 seats] The fieldwork ended last night so quite a large proportion of those polled would have seen some of the news from the Lib Dem conference. The party will be disapppointed to be still on 19% from the pollster that usually give them the best figures. Mike Smithson GUARDIAN 21.9.09 Voters believe Labour is not telling truth about public finances – poll An overwhelming majority of voters think Labour is failing to tell the truth about the state of the public finances, according to a new Guardian/ICM poll. The result suggests the government has come off worst from a week of squabbling between the parties over the deficit, and Gordon Brown's admission that spending cuts will be needed. Only 14% of voters think Labour is telling the truth about the country's financial situation. More than twice as many believe what the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats say. Even Labour supporters do not trust their party: only 36% of current Labour supporters, and just 26% of its 2005 voters, think the government is telling the truth about debt. By contrast 36% of all voters believe the Tories, 32% believe the Lib Dems and 33% believe no party. Unlike Labour, a clear majority of each opposition party's supporters trust what its leaders have to say. The result comes as the Conservatives extend their lead over Labour to 17 points – the second highest ever in the Guardian/ICM series, which began in 1984. Conservative support is up two points to 43%, while Labour's has risen one to 26%. The Liberal Democrats, who arrived for their annual conference as polling took place, are unchanged on 19%. Support for other parties has dropped two points to 12%, as the surge following the European elections unwinds. If the result was repeated on polling day the Conservatives would win with a 100+ landslide – an outcome a third of voters say they now expect. Overall, 60% of voters think the Tories will win with a big (32%) or narrow (28%) majority. The turnaround in fortunes since 2005 is stark. Before Tony Blair won his last election, 78% of all voters expected a Labour majority. Now only 17% think Labour will win, while 12% think there will be a hung parliament. Even ardent Labour voters have lost heart. Only 6% expect a clear Labour victory, while 34% think there will be a narrow one. Meanwhile 40% expect a Tory win. Only 47% of people who voted Labour in 2005 plan to stick with the party; 14% say they will vote Conservative and 8% have moved to the Lib Dems. The poll underlines Brown's unpopularity in the run-up to Labour's annual conference next week. Only 28% of voters say they have a favourable impression of him, against 66% who do not. David Cameron, by contrast, is popular: 52% see him favourably and 39% do not. Most people who voted Labour in 2005 now say they like the Tory leader. So do 37% of definite Labour supporters. While Cameron is more popular than his party, Brown and Clegg are not. Overall, 31% have a favourable impression of Labour – three points higher than of Brown. Meanwhile 48% have a favourable impression of the Conservatives, four points below Cameron's score. Nick Clegg, who addresses his party in Bournemouth tomorrow, remains an unknown quantity to many voters: 39% see him favourably against 35% who do not. His party is liked by 53%, 14 points above Clegg's personal score. Brown retains the affection of his own party – 62% of Labour voters see him favourably. But Cameron is more popular among his supporters: 88% of Tories like him. Today's poll also shows the public are split about the best response to the budget deficit. Asked whether they would rather pay more tax, or see cuts in services, including ones they use, 45% pick tax and 47% service cuts. Tories are keenest on cuts – 58% want them more than tax rises – while Labour supporters are opposed: 53% put taxes first. Lib Dems are the most hostile to cuts and the keenest on tax – 32% want cuts and 53% tax – suggesting that Clegg's talk of "savage" reductions in spending may go down badly with his party base. • ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,001 adults aged 18+ by telephone between 18 to 20 September 2009. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. Percentages may not add to 100 because of rounding.
CON 43 (+2) LAB 26 (+1) LD 19 (nc)
Monday, 21 September 2009
For those not getting graphics - - -
Conservative---43%- - = +2%
Labour ---------26% - = +1%
Liberal Dmcrts 19 % - = nc
Others-----------12% - = -3%
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Guardian/ICM poll records 17-point Tory lead over Labour – second highest since series began in 1984
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