The outcome of the general election if opinion became closer than it seems to be now could well depend on changes in Scotland. This report is a bit muddled but essentially it shows different patterns of voting according to whether the intentions relate to the Scottish Assembly or to the Westminster parliament.
The actual figures are not reported here so the picture ia total (incompetent) muddle but what is clear is that for both elections the SNP show gains, but much more so for Holyrood than for Westminster. Since there is no mention of the Tories who have made a bigger impression in Scotland than for years, or of the Lib Dems this glimpse is all hype and short on facts and figures! A thoroughly shoddy job!
The one clear thing is that it is very bad news for Labour!
Christina
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SUNDAY EXPRESS
13.9.09
POLL PUTS LABOUR MINISTERS AT RISK
Alistair Darling could lose seat
CHANCELLOR Alistair Darling and Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy are set to lose their seats according to a new poll that gives the SNP its highest rating in Holyrood and Westminster.
Former Defence Secretary Des Browne would also be a likely high-profile casualty based on the Ipsos-MORI figures which predict the Nationalists are on course to win 25 seats in next year’s General Election. [present? -cs]
The poll is worse for Labour north of the Border, with the SNP set to win 55 seats to Labour’s 35 at the next Scottish Parliament elections, raising the prospect of a majority coalition with the Tories or the Lib Dems.
Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon yesterday welcomed the results, which come despite criticism over the Lockerbie bomber and the handling of the Diageo jobs crisis.
Ms Sturgeon said: “These are really excellent poll ratings for the SNP at both Westminster and Holyrood. Not only do they demonstrate that the SNP Government is winning the debate in Holyrood but also building support for sending SNP MPs to fight Scotland’s corner in Westminster.
“They also show our vote is far more motivated than Labour’s.”
She said that the “commanding” poll lead also demonstrated that the SNP’s?planned?independence referendum enjoyed the support of the Scottish people.
Angus 0Robertson, the SNP’s Westminster leader, added: “Scottish Labour MPs will be looking at these results fearfully, with the party set to lose more than a third of its MPs north of the Border.”
Ipsos-MORI quizzed 1,000 people at the end of August, after Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi’s release, for Holyrood Magazine, and found a massive swing of nearly 14 per cent from Labour to the SNP ahead of the General Election.
It has the Nationalists seven points ahead for Holyrood and two points ahead for Westminster. However, among people who are “certain to vote” the SNP’s lead increases further to 13 points for Holyrood and six points for Westminster.
Darling and Browne would be among the 19 Labour and Lib Dem MPs to lose their seats to the SNP, many of them in previously safe territory in the central belt.
The poll also predicts the Conservatives will return four Scottish MPs, ousting the Scottish Secretary in East Renfrewshire, Nigel Griffiths in Edinburgh South and Russell Brown in Dumfries and Galloway. [at present they hold ONE! -cs]
However, Mr Murphy was yesterday in bullish mood about his chances at the next General Election, declaring that he would “beat the odds” for a fourth time in what was?once Scotland’s safest Tory seat.
Speaking exclusively with the Scottish Sunday Express, he also attacked the SNP’s first foreign policy document, unveiled by External Affairs Minister Mike Russell in Brussels last week, as being too poor to pass a modern studies Higher exam.
“Its embarrassing, and they probably realised it was a mistake,” he said. “The policy doesn’t make sense and the document is an embarrassment to Scotland. If that is the best they can do then thank goodness for Britain.
“It’s because I love Scotland so much that I don’t want to see it becoming smaller.
“We are the most influential small country in the world through being an equal part of Britain and this idea that we should throw all that away is wrong.
“The separation issue is a one way trip into the great unknown and this document made it even less clear.
“There was one sentence on defence, hardly anything on Nato, zero on currency, probably because they would have to join the Euro but the don’t want to say that.
“It wouldn’t get pass marks in a modern studies exam at Highers and its meant to be a blueprint for our nation’s future.
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