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Democrats Anxious Over a Once-Safe Seat

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Alert: The New York Times Reports - Martha M. Coakley, the Democrat running for Senator Edward M. Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts, had seemed so certain of winning the special election on Jan. 19 that she barely campaigned last month.

But the dynamic has changed in recent days. The news that two senior Democratic senators will retire this year in the face of bleak re-election prospects has created anxiety and, even in this bluest of states, a sense that the balance of power has shifted dramatically from just a year ago.

With the holidays over and public attention refocused on the race, Ms. Coakley’s insistence on debating her Republican opponent, Scott P. Brown, only with a third-party candidate present has drawn mounting criticism.

And a new poll that showed a competitive race between Ms. Coakley and Mr. Brown has generated buzz on conservative blogs and energized the Brown campaign — though many news organizations dispute its methodology.

In a sudden flurry of activity, the Coakley campaign released its first television advertisement on Thursday and accepted the endorsement of Mr. Kennedy’s widow, Victoria Reggie Kennedy, at a splashy event outside Boston.

A Brown win remains improbable, given that Democrats outnumber Republicans by 3 to 1 in the state and that Ms. Coakley, the state’s attorney general, has far more name recognition, money and organizational support.

But a tighter-than-expected margin in the closely watched race would still prompt soul-searching among Democrats nationally, since the outcome will be the first real barometer of whether problems facing the party will play out in tangible ways at the polls later this year.

“If I had to bet a week’s salary,” said Dennis Hale, a political science professor at Boston College, “I’d still bet it on Coakley. But this is going to be like in the military, where the bullet misses you but it still scares you to death.”

While Ms. Coakley kept a low profile over the holidays, Mr. Brown hammered her as soft on terrorists and as a “crusader” for abortion rights. He has played up his military credentials — he serves in the Army National Guard — and his opposition to the health care overhaul headed for a final vote in Congress. That, too, has unnerved Democrats, who cannot afford to lose a single vote on the embattled legislation.

Republicans are hoping that diminished support for President Obama and his party among independents could give Mr. Brown a shot at winning. About half of the state’s voters are not affiliated with a party.

“Scott’s done a great job of tapping into the economy as an issue and the fact that people aren’t happy with what’s going on in Washington,” said Charles Manning, a Republican strategist here. “When you couple that with the coronation campaign that Martha’s been trying to run, it’s really made a difference.”

Democrats dismiss such statements as wishful thinking whipped up by conservative commentators outside Massachusetts. Still, Mary Anne Marsh, a Democratic strategist, said Ms. Coakley erred in not campaigning more aggressively last month.

“By taking a low-profile approach, she invited more of a race than she would have had otherwise,” Ms. Marsh said. “Sometimes I wanted to say, ‘My God, woman, take it up a notch.’ ”

Massachusetts voters have not sent a Republican to the Senate in 37 years, though they have elected three Republican governors since 1990. Polls suggest that Gov. Deval Patrick, a Democrat, will face a tough re-election battle this year despite his landslide victory in 2006.

The poll that suggested Ms. Coakley’s lead was narrowing, which was conducted by Rasmussen Reports and does not meet the polling standards of The New York Times because it relied on automated telephone calls, suggested Mr. Brown had strikingly strong support among independent voters. But most of them are unlikely to come out for a special election at an odd time of year, Ms. Marsh said.

“The only people who come out in an election like this,” Ms. Marsh said, “are the diehards.”

Ms. Coakley won the Democratic primary election on Dec. 8 with 47 percent of the vote, compared with 28 percent for her closest opponent. Mr. Brown won 89 percent of the vote in the Republican primary. Election officials said turnout was among the lowest for a contested primary in the state’s history.

After receiving Mrs. Kennedy’s endorsement on Thursday at a center for the elderly in Medford, Ms. Coakley said she had been busy preparing for debates and ramping up a get-out-the-vote effort, among other things.

“A campaign is composed of many parts,” she told reporters. “I think Jan. 19 will show the results of how busy we’ve been.”

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