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Inquiry and Analysis | 599 | March 26, 2010 Palestinians/Inter-Arab Relations
In Advance of the Start of the Arab Summit on March 27,  The Arab 'Resistance Camp' and Iran Wage Campaign For New Intifada Against Israel and the PA and For De-Legitimization of Renewal of Peace Negotiations –  While the Summit Itself Is Set To Stress a 'Just and Comprehensive Peace'  That Will Include Israeli Withdrawal from Syria, Lebanon, and  Palestine as the Arab Strategic Option By: Y. Yehoshua* Introduction

The last few weeks have seen the reemergence of the conflicts between the two main camps in the Middle East: the "resistance camp" – led by the resistance movements, Iran, Syria and Qatar – that supports armed struggle against Israel and opposes negotiations with it, and the moderate camp – led by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority – that supports a political solution for the conflict with Israel. The disagreements resurfaced on the backdrop of the conflict between the U.S. and Israel over construction in East Jerusalem.

Along with the fundamental disagreements between the two camps, many efforts are also underway to reach understandings and agreements between them prior to the upcoming Arab League summit in Libya. At the same time, however, the resistance camp is waging an intensive campaign for launching a third intifada, for de-legitimizing efforts to restart negotiations with Israel, and for rescinding the Arab peace initiative. This approach has the backing of Muslim Brotherhood clerics and of satellite channels such as Al-Jazeera.

The moderate camp is rejecting these calls, saying that escalation in the region will only lead to a Hamas takeover of the West Bank and serve Iran's interests – and this precisely at a time when conflict is heating up between Israel and the U.S.

As will be recalled, the cold war between the two blocs in the Arab world was apparent in 2006, following the Lebanon war, in light of the moderate camp's objections to the policy of Hizbullah and its supporters Iran, Syria, and Qatar. It came to a head during the Gaza war (December 2008-January 2009), when the moderate camp opposed Hamas' policy while the pro-resistance camp supported it.[1]

The efforts to reach understandings between the two camps despite the disputes between them are part of an overall Saudi policy of promoting intra-Arab unity in order to form a solid and influential Arab front, as reflected in the Saudi-Syrian rapprochement over the past year. However, this policy has so far not yielded a more comprehensive intra-Arab reconciliation; for example, it has not led to Syria-Egypt rapprochement or to intra-Palestinian reconciliation. Furthermore, despite the coordination between Syria and Saudi Arabia, their views on Israel are still in conflict: Saudi Arabia supports a political solution, while Syria is still a proponent of resistance.

The upcoming Arab summit in Libya, which is aimed at focusing and fostering unity on the issues of Jerusalem, will focus on the question of the Arab modus operandi vis-à-vis Israel – negotiations or resistance. It is reasonable to assume that the calls for a third intifada and for freezing the negotiations with Israel are aimed at pressuring the moderate Arab countries to take a harsher stance vis-à-vis this country. Arab League Secretary-General 'Amr Moussa has already announced that "rescinding the peace initiative" will be brought up for discussion at the summit. Saudi Arabia, for its part, which has already said that "the Arab initiative will not remain on the table for very long," has called for finding other nonviolent options to pressure Israel in the international arena. But it seems that agreement on the issue between Syria and Saudi Arabia has already been attained – i.e. that at the summit the Arab peace initiative will not be rescinded.[2]

Therefore, alongside the campaign of the Arab "resistance camp" and Iran for a new intifada against Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and for the de-legitimization of a renewal of peace negotiations, the Arab summit itself is set to stress a 'just and comprehensive peace' that will include an Israeli withdrawal from Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine as the Arab strategic option.[3]

Another issue that is likely to be agreed upon is Syria's proposal to create an apparatus for resolving intra-Arab disputes. This proposal is to create a new body, an "Arab troika" (which apparently will include Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Egypt), to deal with Arab conflicts. It seems that this proposal is aimed at facilitating stronger Syrian involvement in the intra-Palestinian reconciliation and at gaining a more central status for itself in the Arab world, as it deems appropriate. In addition, this body, if established, will contribute to distancing the new Shi'ite-led Iraq from the centers of Arab decision making – which is a shared interest of Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.[4] This will also be demonstrated by yet another postponement of Iraq's turn to host the next Arab League summit.[5]

The following is a review of the dispute waged between the two camps on the eve of the Arab League Summit in Libya.

To read the full report, visit http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/4062.htm.

[1] See MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 492, "An Escalating Regional Cold War – Part I: The 2009 Gaza War," February 2, 2009, http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/3281.htm.

[2] While at the previous Arab League summit in Doha, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad declared the Arab peace initiative "dead" (Al-Sharq (Qatar), April 2, 2009.), in a March 24, 2010 interview with Hizbullah's Al-Manar TV, he softened his position, saying: "The Arab peace initiative should not be rescinded, because rescinding it means alienation from the sources of validity of the peace process [i.e., U.N. Resolutions 242 and 338], and this will serve Israel's interest. But there is a difference between rescinding it and suspending it..." Al-Manar, March 24, 2010; www.sns.sy, March 25, 2010. 

[3] Alarabiya.net, March 26, 2010, http://www.alarabiya.net/save_print.php?print=1&cont_id=104106.

[4] See MEMRI Inquiry and Analysis No. 583, "Syria Regains Pivotal Regional, Int'l Role – The Triumph of the 'Course of Resistance,'" January 29, 2010, http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/3940.htm.

[5] Alarabiya.net, March 26, 2010, http://www.alarabiya.net/save_print.php?print=1&cont_id=104106