Saturday 8 May 2010


Devoid Cameroon 

shows he has no 

political NOUS! 





8 May 2010

Tories Could Have Won with a Simple Promise


The Conservatives could have had a comfortable working majority if they had made an unequivocal commitment to a referendum on British membership of the EU
 
The UKIP vote would have collapsed and - whilst not every one of the 25 seats below might have gone to the Tories - there can be no doubt they would have had a working majority of about 40.


Constituency where Tories came second                    
 Winner's majority          UKIP vote
Bolton West92901
Derby N613829
Derbyshire NE24452636
Dorset Mid2692109
Dudley N6493267
Great Grimsby7142043
Hampstead & Kilburn42408
Hull N6411358
Middlesbrough S16771881
Morley & Outwood11011506
Newcastle-U-Lyme15523491
Norwich S3101145
Oldham E1031720
Plymouth Moor15883188
Rochdale8891999
Sheffield Central165652
Solihull1751200
Somerset & Frome18171932
Southampton & Itchen1921928
St Austell & Newquay13121757
St Ives S17192560
Swansea West504716
Walsall N9901737
Walsall S8001711
Wirral S5311274
 

Worse, they could and should have won Wells, which was lost to the Lib-Dims.  The LD majority was 800 and the UKIP vote 1711.
 
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Devoid Cameroon shows he has no political NOUS! 


The Conservatives could have had a comfortable working majority if they had made an unequivocal commitment to a referendum on British membership of the EU
 
The UKIP vote would have collapsed and - whilst not every one of the 25 seats below might have got to the Tories - there can be no doubt they would have had a working majority of about 40.
  
 





Constituency where Tories came second   Winner's majority  UKIP vote
Bolton West  92        901
Derby N     613        829
Derbyshire NE      2445        2636
Dorset Mid 269        2109
Dudley N       649       3267
Great Grimsby  714      2043
Hampstead & kilburn        42         408
Hull N                           641       1358
Middlesbrough S           1677        1881
Morley & Outwood         1101       1506
Newcastle-U-Lyme        1552       3491
Norwich S                     310        1145
Oldham E                      103       1720
Plymouth Moor             1588       3188
Rochdale                      889        1999
Sheffield Central            165         652
Solihull                         175        1200
Somerset & Frome         1817       1932
Southampton & Itchen     192        1928
St Ausyell & Newquay    1312        1757
St Ives S                      1719       2560
Swansea West                504         716
Walsall N                       990        1737
Walsall S                        800       1711
Wirral S                         531       1274


I am grateful to DDfor the analysis

UKIP effect 2010 - the full list - by Richard...

We are compiling the full list of seats where the Conservative failure to gain a victory could be considered attributable to the "UKIP effect". This we take to be seats where either the UKIP vote, or the UKIP/BNP vote combined, exceeds the majority of the Labour or Lib-Dim winner. The list starts here:

1. Birmingham Edgbaston: Lab 16,894, Con 15,620 – majority 1,274. BNP 1,196 and UKIP 732 (total 1,928).

2. Bolton West: Lab 18,327, Con 18,235 – majority 92. UKIP 1,901.

3. Derby North: Lab 14,896, Con 14,283 – majority 613. UKIP 829 and BNP 2,000 (total 2,829).

4. Derbyshire North East: Lab 17,948, Con 15,503 – majority 2,445. UKIP 2,636.

5. Dorset Mid & Poole North: Lib-Dims 21,100, Con 20,831 - majority 269. UKIP 2,109.

6. Dudley North: Lab 14,923, Con 14,274 – majority 649. UKIP 3,267 and BNP 1,899 (total 5,166).

7. Gedling: Lab 19821, Con 17,962 – majority 1,859. UKIP 1,459 and BNP 1,598 (total 3,057).

8. Great Grimsby: Lab 10,777, Con 10, 063 – majority 714. UKIP 2,043 and BNP 1,517 (total 3,560).

9. Halifax: Lab 16,278, Con 14,806 – majority 1,472. BNP 2,760 and UKIP 654 (total 3,414).

10. Hampstead & Kilburn: Lab 17,332, Con 17, 290 – majority 42. UKIP 408 and BNP 328 (total 736).

11. Hull North: Lab 13,044, Con 12,403 – majority 641. UKIP 1,358 and BNP 1,443 (total 2,801).

12. Hyndburn: Lab 17,531, Con 14,441 – majority 3,090. UKIP 1,481 and BNP 2,137 (3,618).

13. Middlesborough South & Cleveland East: Lab 18,138, Con 16,461 – majority 1,677. UKIP 1,881 and BNP 1,576 (total 3,457).

14. Morley and Outwood: Lab 18,365, Con 17,264 – majority 1,101. UKIP 1,506 and BNP 3,535 (total 5,041).

15. Newcastle-under-Lyme: Lab 16,393, Con 14,841 – majority 1,551. UKIP 3,491.

16. Norwich South: Lib-Dim (gain) 13,960, Con 13,650 – majority 310. UKIP 1,145 and BNP 697 (total 1,842).

17. Nottingham South: Lab 15,209, Con 13,437 - majority 1,772. BNP 1,140 and UKIP 967 (total 2,107).

18. Penistone & Stocksbridge: Lab: 17,565m Con 14,516 – majority 3,049. UKIP 1,936 and BNP 2,207 (total 4,143).

19. Plymouth Moor View: Lab 15,433, Con 13,845 - majority 1,588. UKIP 3,188 and BNP 1,438 (total 4,626).

20. St Austell & Newquay: Lib-Dim 20,189, Con 18,877 - majority 1,312. UKIP 1,757 and BNP 1,022 (total 2,779)

21. St Ives: Lib-Dims 19,619, Con 17,900 - majority 1,719. UKIP 2,560.

22. Scunthorpe: Lab 14,640, Con 12,091 – majority 2,549. UKIP 1,686 and BNP 1,447 (total 3,183).

23. Solihull: Lib-Dim 23,635, Con 23,460 – majority 175. UKIP 1,200 and BNP 1624 (total 2,824).

24. Somerton & Frome: Lib-Dims 28,793, Con 26,976 - majority 1,817. UKIP 1,932 and Leave-the-EU Alliance 236 (total 2,168).

25. Southampton Itchen: Lab 16,326, Con 16,134 - majority 192. UKIP 1,928.

26. Sutton & Cheam: Lib-Dims 22,156, Con 20,548 – majority 1,608. BNP 1,014 and UKIP 950 (total 1,964).

27. Telford: Lab 15,977, Con 14,996 – majority 981. UKIP 2,428 and BNP 1,513 (3,941).

28. Walsall North: Lab 13,385, Con 12,395 – majority 990. BNP 2,930 and UKIP 1,737 (4,667).

29. Walsall South: Lab 16,211, Con 14,456 – majority 1,755. UKIP 3,449.

30. Wells: Lib-Dims 24,560, Con 23,760 - majority 800. UKIP 1,711 and BNP 1,004 (total 2,815).

31. Wirral South: Lab 16,276, Con 15,745 – majority 531. UKIP 1,274.

32. Wolverhampton North East: Lab 14,448, Con 11,964 – majority 2,484. UKIP 1,138 and BNP 2,296 (total 3,434).

I'll complete the analysis later today. There is a list, incidentally, circulating by e-mail, claiming 25 UKIP scalps. However, that list is flawed, containing Lab/Lib-Dem contests, where the Tories came third. Those results would not have been affected by the UKIP vote.

RESHUFFLE SPECIAL THREAD

Print ready

The UKIP effect - by Richard... Friday, May 07, 2010

A quick but inaccurate sounding suggest that the minority vote cost David Cameron his victory. What in 2005 I termed the "UKIP effect" cost the Tories an estimated 28 seats. And, neglected entirely by the media and the claque, it was very much in evidence in this election. 

My early calculations indicate that over 20 seats could have gone to The Boy if he had courted the minority vote, which would have meant offering a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

An example of this is the Dudley North result. Labour gets 14,923 votes in a marginal that the Tories expected to get, putting them on 38.7 of the vote. Graeme Brown for the Conservatives gets 14,274, and Mike Beckett for the Lib-Dims gets 4,066.

But the "killer" is UKIP. Against a majority of 649, Malcolm Davis gets 3,267 votes - 8.5 percent of the vote, up 3.9 percent. Easily, the UKIP vote handed to the Conservatives, would have given them the seat. On the other hand, there is the BNP which polled 1,899 and the National Front on 173. Some of those might have gone to Labour, but others would have been Labour on their way to Tory.

With only two results yet to declare, the Tories are on 305, Labour – in contrast with the first exit poll – is "over-performing" with 258 and the Lib-Dims are on 57. Add the 20-plus seats attributable to the UKIP effect and The Boy could be in Downing Street right now. 

And not one of the media pundits have even mentioned this. Nor will they – their brand of politics is a reality-free zone.

RESHUFFLE SPECIAL THREAD


General Election 2010: Ukip challenge 'cost Tories a Commons majority'

The UK Independence Party's small but significant showing at the polls may have cost David Cameron a majority in the Commons, voting figures suggest.

 

By John Bingham and Tom Whitehead
Published: 10:00PM BST 07 May 2010

Ed Balls arrives at the Leeds election count
Schools secretary Ed Balls survived with a majority of only 1,101 in the Morley and Outwood constituency, while Ukip polled 1,506 in the contest, so the result might have been different without Ukip Photo: BEN LACK

Although the Eurosceptic group suffered a dismal election night, failing to make a breakthrough in mainstream politics, it may inadvertently have handed the pro-European Liberal Democrats the possibility of a role in government.

Analysis of results shows that in at least 21 key marginal seats, Ukip’s share of the vote proved enough to allow Labour or the Lib Dems to see off strong Tory challenges.

 

Related Articles

The extra victories would have been enough to fill the 20-seat shortfall needed to hand David Cameronan outright majority in the Commons.

Schools secretary Ed Balls' Morley and Outwood constituency was among key seats where the result might have been different without Ukip.

Mr Balls survived with a majority of only 1,101 while Ukip polled 1,506 in the contest.

Ruth Kelly’s former seat of Bolton West and Glenda Jackson’s Hampstead and Kilburn seat in north London might have fallen to the Tories had it not been for Ukip’s presence.

Former Tories who defected to the Eurosceptic party said that disappointment over Mr Cameron's position on a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty could have cost him a majority.

But Ukip was last night facing up to the prospect of watching the Tories reach an accommodation with the pro-European Lib Dems as a result of its presence in "winnable" constituencies.

Despite high hopes, Ukip did not pick up a single seat and managed just three per cent of the overall vote, with just over 900,000.

The party had hoped to hit at least five per cent and pass the one million votes barrier following its success in last year’s European Parliament elections but fell well short of both.

However it said it had achieved a "solid" performance, with a 50 per cent increase in support since the 2005 election.

Its key target had been to unseat John Bercow, the House of Commons Speaker, but Ukip's Nick Farage could only muster third place.

Mr Farage was still in hospital yesterday after being injured when a light aircraft he was a passenger in crashed in Northamptonshire on Thursday.

The plane, towing an election banner, had been in the air for nearly 15 minutes and was preparing to land when it nosedived and hit the ground.

It is thought the banner may have become tangled up in the plane's tail fin, causing the crash. Northamptonshire Police are investigating.

Mr Farage had been contesting Mr Bercow's Buckingham seat but the latter remained in place with a majority of more than 12,000.

Ukip fielded 560 candidates and was anticipating a higher success rate in members keeping their deposit. Just 47 did five years ago.

Gawain Towler, Ukip spokesman, said: “We are realistic and did not expect to come from where we are overnight in a first past the post system.

"Of course we are disappointed but an increase of 50 per cent is not bad in anyone's book.”

Mr Farage's election agent, Dave Fowler, said on his behalf: "I assure Ukip voters and supporters that although we have lost this battle, the war carries on."


Did                                  UKIP                 cost         the                   Tories               a                  Commons                      majority?

The Telegraph asks the question and highlights Ed Balls' victory - won by only 1,101 votes while UKIP polled 1,506.

"Jason" left a comment on ConHome listing some of the Tory near misses and the UKIP vote (on a spot check his figures look correct):

  • Bolton West: Labour 18,329; Conservative 18,235; UKIP 1,901
  • Derby North: Labour 14,896; Conservative 14,283; UKIP 829
  • Derbyshire NE: Labour 17,948: Conservative 15,503; UKIP 2,636
  • Dorset mid & Poole: Labour 21,100; Conservative 20,831; UKIP 2,109
  • Dudley North: Labour 14,923; Conservative 14,274; UKIP 3,267
  • Great Grimsby: Labour 10,777: Conservative 10,063: UKIP 2,043
  • Hampstead & Kilburn: Labour 17,332; Conservative 17,290; UKIP 408
  • Middlesbrough South: Labour 18,138; Conservative 16,461; UKIP 1,881
  • Morley (Ed Balls): Labour 18,365; Conservatives 17,264; UKIP 1,506
  • Newcastle-Under-Lyme: Labour 16,393; Conservatives 14,841; UKIP 3,491
  • Plymouth Moor View: Labour 15,433; Conservatives 13,845; UKIP 3,188
  • Solihull: Liberal 23,635; Conservatives 23,460; UKIP 1,200
  • Somerton & Frome: Liberal 28,793; Conservatives 26,976; UKIP 1,932
  • Southampton Itchen: Labour 16,326; Conservatives 16,134; UKIP 1,928
  • St Austell & Newquay: Liberal 20,189; Conservatives 18,877; UKIP 1,757
  • St Ives: Liberal 19,619; Conservatives 17,900; UKIP 2,560
  • Telford: Labour 15,977; Conservatives 14,996; UKIP 2,428
  • Walsall North: Labour 13,385; Conservatives 12,395; UKIP 1,737
  • Walsall South: Labour 16,211; Conservatives 14,456; UKIP 3,449
  • Wells: Liberal 24,560; Conservatives 23,760; UKIP 1,711
  • Wirral South: Labour 16,276; Conservatives 15,745; UKIP 1,274

The trouble with these analyses is that they assume most of the UKIP vote would have gone to the Conservatives. I'm not so sure but it's worth re-reading a blogpost from Janet Daley in the light of these findings. Three weeks ago she wrote: "In the name of its own principles, UKIP should now feel morally obliged to withdraw its candidates from the general election – or at least from contesting any seat in which a Liberal Democrat might oust a Conservative. If it does not – and if it thus succeeds in depriving the Conservatives of a working majority and inflating the LibDem result by default - it will have been responsible for providing the most Europhile party in British politics with signficant power in a coalition government."

Tim Montgomerie

May 08, 2010 at 09:10 | 


UKIP    should   withdraw      f rom    the      election

 

By Janet Daley Politics Last updated: April 21st, 2010

110 Comments Comment on this article

In the name of its own principles, UKIP should now feel morally obliged to withdraw its candidates from the general election – or at least from contesting any seat in which a Liberal Democrat might oust a Conservative. If it does not – and if it thus succeeds in depriving the Conservatives of a working majority and inflating the LibDem result by default - it will have been responsible for providing the most Europhile party in British politics with signficant power in a coalition government. Which gives a whole new meaning to the phrase “tragic irony”. I beg my old friend Lord Pearson to take this plea seriously.

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Posted by Britannia Radio at 11:37