UKIP effect 2010 - the full list - by Richard...

UKIP effect 2010 - the full list - by Richard...

We are compiling the full list of seats where the Conservative failure to gain a victory could be considered attributable to the "UKIP effect". This we take to be seats where either the UKIP vote, or the UKIP/BNP vote combined, exceeds the majority of the Labour or Lib-Dim winner. The list starts here:

1. Birmingham Edgbaston: Lab 16,894, Con 15,620 – majority 1,274. BNP 1,196 and UKIP 732 (total 1,928).

2. Bolton West: Lab 18,327, Con 18,235 – majority 92. UKIP 1,901.

3. Derby North: Lab 14,896, Con 14,283 – majority 613. UKIP 829 and BNP 2,000 (total 2,829).

4. Derbyshire North East: Lab 17,948, Con 15,503 – majority 2,445. UKIP 2,636.

5. Dorset Mid & Poole North: Lib-Dims 21,100, Con 20,831 - majority 269. UKIP 2,109.

6. Dudley North: Lab 14,923, Con 14,274 – majority 649. UKIP 3,267 and BNP 1,899 (total 5,166).

7. Gedling: Lab 19821, Con 17,962 – majority 1,859. UKIP 1,459 and BNP 1,598 (total 3,057).

8. Great Grimsby: Lab 10,777, Con 10, 063 – majority 714. UKIP 2,043 and BNP 1,517 (total 3,560).

9. Halifax: Lab 16,278, Con 14,806 – majority 1,472. BNP 2,760 and UKIP 654 (total 3,414).

10. Hampstead & Kilburn: Lab 17,332, Con 17, 290 – majority 42. UKIP 408 and BNP 328 (total 736).

11. Hull North: Lab 13,044, Con 12,403 – majority 641. UKIP 1,358 and BNP 1,443 (total 2,801).

12. Hyndburn: Lab 17,531, Con 14,441 – majority 3,090. UKIP 1,481 and BNP 2,137 (3,618).

13. Middlesborough South & Cleveland East: Lab 18,138, Con 16,461 – majority 1,677. UKIP 1,881 and BNP 1,576 (total 3,457).

14. Morley and Outwood: Lab 18,365, Con 17,264 – majority 1,101. UKIP 1,506 and BNP 3,535 (total 5,041).

15. Newcastle-under-Lyme: Lab 16,393, Con 14,841 – majority 1,551. UKIP 3,491.

16. Norwich South: Lib-Dim (gain) 13,960, Con 13,650 – majority 310. UKIP 1,145 and BNP 697 (total 1,842).

17. Nottingham South: Lab 15,209, Con 13,437 - majority 1,772. BNP 1,140 and UKIP 967 (total 2,107).

18. Penistone & Stocksbridge: Lab: 17,565m Con 14,516 – majority 3,049. UKIP 1,936 and BNP 2,207 (total 4,143).

19. Plymouth Moor View: Lab 15,433, Con 13,845 - majority 1,588. UKIP 3,188 and BNP 1,438 (total 4,626).

20. St Austell & Newquay: Lib-Dim 20,189, Con 18,877 - majority 1,312. UKIP 1,757 and BNP 1,022 (total 2,779)

21. St Ives: Lib-Dims 19,619, Con 17,900 - majority 1,719. UKIP 2,560.

22. Scunthorpe: Lab 14,640, Con 12,091 – majority 2,549. UKIP 1,686 and BNP 1,447 (total 3,183).

23. Solihull: Lib-Dim 23,635, Con 23,460 – majority 175. UKIP 1,200 and BNP 1624 (total 2,824).

24. Somerton & Frome: Lib-Dims 28,793, Con 26,976 - majority 1,817. UKIP 1,932 and Leave-the-EU Alliance 236 (total 2,168).

25. Southampton Itchen: Lab 16,326, Con 16,134 - majority 192. UKIP 1,928.

26. Sutton & Cheam: Lib-Dims 22,156, Con 20,548 – majority 1,608. BNP 1,014 and UKIP 950 (total 1,964).

27. Telford: Lab 15,977, Con 14,996 – majority 981. UKIP 2,428 and BNP 1,513 (3,941).

28. Walsall North: Lab 13,385, Con 12,395 – majority 990. BNP 2,930 and UKIP 1,737 (4,667).

29. Walsall South: Lab 16,211, Con 14,456 – majority 1,755. UKIP 3,449.

30. Wells: Lib-Dims 24,560, Con 23,760 - majority 800. UKIP 1,711 and BNP 1,004 (total 2,815).

31. Wirral South: Lab 16,276, Con 15,745 – majority 531. UKIP 1,274.

32. Wolverhampton North East: Lab 14,448, Con 11,964 – majority 2,484. UKIP 1,138 and BNP 2,296 (total 3,434).

I'll complete the analysis later today. There is a list, incidentally, circulating by e-mail, claiming 25 UKIP scalps. However, that list is flawed, containing Lab/Lib-Dem contests, where the Tories came third. Those results would not have been affected by the UKIP vote.

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The UKIP effect - by Richard... Friday, May 07, 2010

A quick but inaccurate sounding suggest that the minority vote cost David Cameron his victory. What in 2005 I termed the "UKIP effect" cost the Tories an estimated 28 seats. And, neglected entirely by the media and the claque, it was very much in evidence in this election. 

My early calculations indicate that over 20 seats could have gone to The Boy if he had courted the minority vote, which would have meant offering a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.

An example of this is the Dudley North result. Labour gets 14,923 votes in a marginal that the Tories expected to get, putting them on 38.7 of the vote. Graeme Brown for the Conservatives gets 14,274, and Mike Beckett for the Lib-Dims gets 4,066.

But the "killer" is UKIP. Against a majority of 649, Malcolm Davis gets 3,267 votes - 8.5 percent of the vote, up 3.9 percent. Easily, the UKIP vote handed to the Conservatives, would have given them the seat. On the other hand, there is the BNP which polled 1,899 and the National Front on 173. Some of those might have gone to Labour, but others would have been Labour on their way to Tory.

With only two results yet to declare, the Tories are on 305, Labour – in contrast with the first exit poll – is "over-performing" with 258 and the Lib-Dims are on 57. Add the 20-plus seats attributable to the UKIP effect and The Boy could be in Downing Street right now. 

And not one of the media pundits have even mentioned this. Nor will they – their brand of politics is a reality-free zone.

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