Dawn Thursday, June 3 found Israel and Turkey facing glaring at each other on the brink of a military clash in the fevered aftermath of the Israeli commando raid of a Gaza-bound aid flotilla on May 31. Israel had acceded to Ankara's demand to release the hundreds of activists taken off the boats at Ashdod port.
But without waiting for their release, Turkey jumped the gun. As DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources report exclusively, on Tuesday and Wednesday (June 1-2), Ankara consigned substantial military strength to its three big forward bases in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC): The international airport of Ercan, east and slightly south of Nicosia; the village of Lefkoniko in the Famagusta District; and Salamisis on the eastern coast, north of Famagusta.
Deployed on the island and in its ports at present are Turkish Air Force F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, Hercules C-130 cargo planes loaded with small paratroop units, as well as war ships, frigates, destroyers and marines in full battle gear dropped by landing craft early Wednesday at Turkish naval bases in Famagusta, Kalecik and Kyrenia.
Just 48 hours after Israeli naval troops commandeered the six "Freedom Flotilla" ships and diverted them from Gaza to Ashdod, Turkey had transformed Northern Cyprus into a vast aircraft carrier, primed to explode into action to attain two goals:
Determined to break Israel's Gaza blockade
1. To break the Israeli Air Force and Navy's blockade of the Gaza Strip
2. To exact revenge in the Mediterranean arena for Israel's commando action against the Turkish-led convoy which ended in 9 deaths and 40 injured in the battle on the Turkish Mavi Marmara, and hundreds in Israeli custody with their vessels.
Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan told President Barack Obama on the phone Tuesday, June 1, shortly before midnight Washington time, that if the United States did not punish Israel, Turkey would do so, because "[Israel] can't wash its hands of its perpetrated crimes in the Mediterranean." Turkey, he said, is obliged to defend its citizens and national honor.
As they talked, the US early warning station atop Mount Troodos, the highest point in Cyprus - which in recent years has been sweeping airwaves across the Caucasus and Central Asia rather than the Middle East - transmitted to the White House images of Turkish seaborne military movements and the steady build-up of military strength, apparently in tactical array for engaging Israel in military action.
The reports the White House received from Israel were not rosier.
Confronted with Turkish might massed in and off Northern Cyprus less than 150 kilometers from its shores, Israel girded up for a possible military encounter. Its Navy, Air Force and Special Forces went on alert, followed Wednesday, June 2, with the mobilization of reserve units - initially the command structures of an armored division and the armored infantry corps. They were put on standby for the immediate call-up of combat troops; Israel's military chiefs calculated that a military engagement with Turkey, once begun, might rapidly spin out of control and draw Syria, the Lebanese Hizballah and the Palestinian Hamas in Gaza into the fray in Ankara's support.
Very soon, Israeli warplanes and spy drones were circling over Northern Cyprus and the eastern Mediterranean transmitting data on the Turkish forces piling up there, while at sea, warships formed into two arcs, one facing the Turkish concentrations on and around Northern Cyprus and the other sealing off the Gaza Strip and shielding the big Israeli ports of Haifa and Ashdod.
Obama's conciliatory efforts dwarfed by events
Wednesday morning, Israel began airlifting diplomats' families from the embassy in Ankara and the consulate in Istanbul, along with the staffs of its defense missions and trading firms. The embassy and consulate were ordered to shred and burn classified materials and remove hard disks from their computers for shipping out or wipe them permanently. Security personnel made arrangements to disappear across nearby borders at a moment's notice in the event of a flare-up.
Seeking to defuse the tension, President Barack Obama made several calls to Jerusalem as well as Ankara on the critical Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, only to hear Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu say that Erdogan's military movements left Israel no option but to stand ready for a showdown.
"If Erdogan stops massing his army against Israel," Netanyahu told Obama, 'Israel will stand down too."
But the harder Obama strove for calm, the faster the military drums beat on both sides.
Inside Turkey, the prime minister mustered all the machinery of his Muslim-oriented Justice and Development Party to whip up furious street demonstrations across the country demanding revenge against Israel.
They were fueled by Erdogan's enraged speech to parliament Tuesday accusing Israel of a bloody massacre. "From now on, it is no longer possible to turn a blind eye on the lawless behavior of the current Israeli government," he said, adding he did not advise anyone to test Turkey's patience.
He came to the legislature from an emergency cabinet meeting with the military's second-ranking general, the defense minister and national intelligence directors.
Israelis see themselves as unfairly demonized
A few hours later, Erdogan told Obama that Israel's next actions would determine where his country stood, throwing the ball back in Netanyahu's court. But by then, it was judged in Washington and Jerusalem that the Turkish premier had painted himself into a corner from which he could not back down any time soon.
The US president saw his efforts overtaken and overshadowed by galloping events.
If the Turkish prime minister, or any one else, expected Israel to be contrite, they were wrong. While upset by the way the raid was handled, Israelis saw themselves unfairly demonized internationally for carrying out a legitimate defensive operation against the belligerent Hamas. International censure, they said, was misdirected against the injured party and they accused Ankara if sending out a convoy of phony "peace-lovers" to put Israel in the wrong on behalf of its enemies.
Anxious to take the flotilla incident off world headlines, Netanyahu promised the US president to speedily deport the hundreds of foreign activists questioned and jailed after they were taken off the boats at Ashdod port. And indeed, by Wednesday night, most were bound for the international airport on buses and flown out, while 124 citizens of Arab and Muslim countries left through neighboring Jordan.
The prime minister cause a domestic outcry by resisting demands from the state attorney, the military and the public to bring to justice the activists filmed on the Marmara's deck beating up Israeli soldiers.
Members of the Istanbul-based IHH- Insani Yardim Vakfi were described by other passengers as having organized the ship's routine on military lines and being armed ready for the Israeli raiders.
Netanyahu told the US president that the group had been formed by the IHH of a hodge-podge from various international jihad movements, including al Qaeda's branches in Turkey, Bosnia and Bulgaria (See HOT POINTS of June 2 below).
A clash would be a nightmare for Obama
He accused the Erdogan government of generously bankrolling this group and arranging for donations of $1.8 million for the purchase of the Mavi Marmara, the intended spearhead of the convoy for breaking the Gaza blockade. The Istanbul authorities were instructed, he said, to let these terrorists board the ship and sail out of port without passports or any other identifying documents.
Sponsoring Islamist terrorists and letting them loose against Israel may make Erdogan look good in Damascus and Tehran, Netanyahu said, but is not something we can accept.
As we write this, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Washington, Jerusalem and Ankara sources do not see Obama managing to dampen the flames, although a military clash between Israel and Turkey would be a nightmare for him as he approaches his second year in office.
Jerusalem is therefore under heavy pressure to again give ground to Ankara's demands, including letting the Irish-flagged Rachel Corrie go through to the Gaza Strip early next week. This ship was left behind by the main convoy because of technical troubles and has made a detour to Istanbul to gain Turkey's blessing for its voyage to finish the flotilla's failed mission to break the Gaza blockade.
The flare-up of hostilities between two of America's most important Middle East allies - in defiance of the US president's efforts to rein them in - would diminish his authority and reflect badly on America's standing in more than one part of the world.
Turkey, a time bomb in the heart of NATO
At the outset of the crisis, the Turkish prime minister said he was determined to invoke not only the UN Security Council for condemning Israel but also NATO for collective action against the Jewish state for attacking a member nation. He was not mollified by the watered down UN condemnation.
So far, Erdogan has not followed through on his demands of NATO. But should Ankara decide it was expedient to freeze its participation in NATO operations as a means of extorting alliance backing for its moves against Israel - up to and including military action against the Jewish state - the strain could prove overwhelming: NATO unity already fraying over its members' refusal to send more troops to Afghanistan might well buckle completely.
In direct contrast, the rival alliance taking shape between Turkey, Iran, Brazil, Syria and other radical anti-American nations, with Russia standing by in the wings, would profit from a military showdown between Turkey and Israel. It would most likely scuttle the fragile US-sponsored proximity talks scarcely broached by Israel and the Palestinians and knock down the keystone overarching Obama's Middle East strategy.
The rejectionist Hamas would be able to celebrate another tactical victory along with its sponsors in Tehran and Damascus.
But the Turkish prime minister has not yet burned all his bridges to the West, although for now he cannot afford to sharply apply the brakes on the momentum he has sent rushing towards a clash with Israel without losing face at home. He would be accused of failing to follow through on steps for defending national honor and this would nullify four years of strenuous efforts to raise his country to the highest level of esteem in Muslim eyes.
Erdogan's dilemma, Netanyahu's quandary
Because other countries, preferably America, have not come forward to punish Israel, Erdogan cannot be seen to shirk the "incalculable consequences" he publicly threatened. He therefore instructed Turkey's armed forces to go forward with preparations for military action, while at the same time keeping an eye on Washington and Jerusalem.
Netanyahu's choices are just as tough as those faced by Obama and Erdogan.
He spent his first year as head of government investing heavily in preparing the country for a military showdown threatened collectively by Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hizballah. Never in their wildest dreams did he or his generals imagine that this confrontation with the radical Muslim bloc would kick off with Israel's longstanding military partner in Ankara.
Wednesday, the Israeli prime minister declared in a live television speech - and later to foreign correspondents - that ending the Gaza blockade would open the door to Iranian ships bearing hundreds of heavy missiles for Hamas and the establishment of an Iranian port on the Mediterranean.
At the same time, he must deal with Erdogan's ultimatum to end the blockade altogether - or face the music.
It is clear to the Israeli prime minister that the music he would face at home for surrendering to Ankara could finish him for good politically. He would lose the respect of the country and its armed forces if he were seen to be climbing down on the cardinal tenet of Israel's defense doctrine against terrorism by opening the floodgates for heavy Iranian hardware to flood Hamas-ruled Gaza.
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Israeli military officials admitted that a failure in military intelligence was at the root of the contretemps Israeli commandos experienced aboard the Mavi Marmara Wednesday, June 2, to the accompaniment of a worldwide chorus of condemnation for the nine activists who were killed and 45 wounded.
Protests were widespread and extreme, verging in some places on denials of Israel's very right to exist.
Ignorant of what type of passenger had been taken aboard the Turkish vessel, the relevant Israeli intelligence agencies omitted to forewarn the troops of what to expect when they landed on deck, or make sure their numbers were up to the task of quietly steering the boat away from Gaza and over to the Israeli port of Ashdod.
The troops were under-armed and mentally unprepared for the violent reception awaiting them.
Israeli military officials talking to DEBKA-Net-Weekly admitted that it was only thanks to their resourcefulness, courage and self-sacrifice that those commandos, badly let down by their intelligence support service, were able to take charge of the ship and bring it to port.
The episode was a disaster in terms of political fallout and the damage to Israel's good name.
Our analysts stress that the intelligence failure went beyond the mere lack of information; like other Israel's security setbacks, - such as the 1973 Yom Kippur War - it was the outcome of fatally erroneous preconceptions.
Up until the critical date of May 31, Israeli decision-makers still regarded Turkey as a military and intelligence ally and gave it its due as a member of NATO. Their officers were in daily contact, their undercover agencies swapped intelligence, the Turkish army was awarded Israel-made weapons systems with secret sophisticated components and the county was never targeted by Israeli espionage.
Erdogan schemed to trap Israel for four years
Israel and its secret services clung to this conception right up to this week, although it had been obvious for three years that Turkish intelligence had changed its spots and was not above conning Israel by planting false information.
Refusing to heed the new winds blowing in Ankara, Israeli policy-makers misread Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan's real intentions, certain that Turkish-Israeli friendship and their military alliance were as sound as ever.
In fact, as DEBKA-Net-Weekly's intelligence sources disclose, Erdogan began setting the trap into which Israel fell this week four years ago.
He started by planting aspersions - which caught Turkish press headlines in March 2007 - of a vast conspiracy hatched by prominent secular activists to murder and terrorize civilians. The left-of-center political weekly Nokta ran alleged entries from the diary of Admiral (ret.) Ozden Omek, which referred to a 2004 plot to inflame street violence as the precursor to a military coup against the pro-Islam government.
Omek's denials of the authenticity of these excerpts notwithstanding, their publication fueled old suspicions of a shadowy network of generals, intelligence officials and organized crime bosses, who were said to be quietly plotting a campaign of violence targeting the Turkish government - and especially against Prime Minister Erdogan.
Blackening the Mossad was the next stage
The next stage unfolded in July 2008, when the Turkish prosecution published a 2,455-page indictment accusing a far-right militant network called Ergenekon of plotting to overthrow Prime Minister Erdogan. It was described as an elaborate secret society of retired military officers, journalists, academics, businessmen, and other secular opponents of the pro-Islam prime minister. But the punch-line was the source of its intelligence, weapons, explosives and funds, named as… the Mossad, Israel's external espionage service.
Although the Mossad was mentioned on every page of the indictment, not a word of protest ever came from Jerusalem, either from the Ehud Olmert government or its successor under Binyamin Netanyahu.
They kept quiet - not because there was any truth in the allegations, but because Jerusalem saw them as arising from Turkish political feuding, which Israel was best advised to stay clear of.
This was also the view of Israeli secret agents' US colleagues, based on the impression they received from their Turkish counterparts - who themselves maintained ties with those Israeli clandestine officers until recently - that the indictment was widely seen as a fabrication to provide Erdogan with a large whip for keeping the Turkish Army and secret services in line.
So Jerusalem buried its head in the sand, convincing itself that the libelous fiction did not and would never impinge on the solid strategic bonds Turkey's armed forces and undercover agencies had forged since 1996 with Israel's Defense Forces, Mossad, military intelligence and the Shin Bet - particularly when the partnership yielded so much valuable help for Ankara's fight against terrorists.
Old Turkish friends said there would be no trouble on the flotilla
Moreover, in 2007, the year the indictment was drummed up, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert agreed to Erdogan acting as senior mediator in peace talks with Syria, which gave the Turkish leader a tremendous boost in his regional ambitions.
By this step, Olmert contributed willy-nilly to the eventual establishment of a new radical Middle East bloc bringing together Turkey, Iran, Syria, Hizballah and Hamas. This grouping, known now as the Northern Front, is quickly growing into the most powerful and proactive Islamic military-political alliance in the region - and no friend of Israel.
The scale of Israel's misjudgment was plain to see when the clash aboard the Marmara sent masses of demonstrators from every walk of life out on Turkish city streets shouting "Death to Israel! and "Send the Turkish Army to free the Palestinian homeland!"
The deep hatred for Israel generated by the current Turkish regime burst into the open when the treacherous Ergenekon underground was dragged up as the prototype of Israel's underhand operation against the Turkish-flagged vessel.
But that was after the event.
Before it all went wrong and Israeli military intelligence officers still trusted their Turkish friends, Erdogan took advantage of that trust and used his growing control of the Turkish army, with the help of its Chief of Staff Gen. Ilker Basbug , to gull its erstwhile Israeli colleagues.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's intelligence sources reveal here that when Israeli military intelligence officers asked their Turkish colleagues to profile the people aboard the Gaza-bound flotilla, they were told blandly that they were ordinary nonviolent civilian protesters who would give them no trouble when the ships were commandeered.
This was accurate with regard to the five smaller boats, but the Israelis were deliberately misled with regard to the bigger Marmara. They were not informed that the ship was in the hands of a hundred or so hard-core Islamists trained in face-to-face combat, or about the weapons they kept aboard for beating back the Israeli commando force. Six Israeli soldiers were seriously hurt before the violence was put down.
And so, by this well-laid scheme, Erdogan contrived to pull the wool over Israel's eyes while also torpedoing the two countries' military ties and the close cooperation and trust which had long bound their intelligence agencies.
He then continued to drive the knife in by accusing Israel Thursday, June 3, of "a historical mistake."
This mistake is not only against Turkey, it is against civilians from 32 different countries," he said.
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The "Gaza Freedom Flotilla" raided by Israeli naval commandos on May 31 was the opening shot of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan's master-plan for breaking Israel's naval blockade on Gaza and wrecking its international and regional standing. None of the aides working on this assignment - or Erdogan himself -imagined for a moment that the first round would harvest such tremendous gains: Israel's blockade on Gaza is already teetering and its international standing has never sunk so low. Now, its very right to exist as a sovereign nation is called into question.
The runaway success of his anti-Israel campaign has crowned Erdogan overnight as the most renowned Muslim figure, pushing even Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmedinjad out of the spotlight. To keep up the momentum of his popularity and bring his vision of restoring Turkey to its old glory as Middle Eastern and Islamic superpower to early fruition, he must carry on as he started.
The Turkish prime minister's most useful resource is the Insani Yardim Vakfi, better known by its acronym of IHH, an organization with a lurid terrorist past in association with al Qaeda, whose head office in Istanbul with branches in 100 countries.
The IHH's usefulness for his purpose is enhanced by its partnership with the Palestinian Free Gaza Movement, which is run from Brussels by a "human rights office" headed by an American Jew called Adam Shapiro
Erdogan plans eight to ten large ships for Flotilla No. 2
Erdogan lifted this radical IHH out of penury by mobilizing Turkish and other Muslim donors to provide the millions of dollars needed to buy large ships, the first of which was the Marmora seized by Israeli commandos. To speed the flotilla on its way to Gaza, Turkish port authorities were instructed not to ask its passengers for passports or submit them to the usual registration and security screening processes.
Loath to let the grass grow under his feet, The Turkish leader has drawn up three scenarios for follow-up operations that may well bring Turkey into more clashes with Israel, as revealed here by DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Ankara sources.
1. He has given Israel an ultimatum to lift the naval and land blockade of Gaza at once. Erdogan is holding continuous emergency cabinet meetings attended by all his generals so as to be able to launch military action to forcibly break the blockade at any given moment. Turkish forces have been concentrated and held ready in Cyprus (as reported in the first article of this issue).
Turkey's leaders drew encouragement from the huge crowds gathered for the funerals of the nine activists killed resisting Israel's commando raid on the Turkish vessel and the banners calling on the Turkish government to avenge their deaths as martyrs.
2. Turkish action might also depend on how the Ankara government means to use the Irish-flagged Rachel Corrie, which lagged behind the flotilla because of technical problems. On Wednesday, June 2, debkafile's military sources reported that the ship had altered course and, instead of continuing toward Gaza, set sail for Turkey.
This has given the Turks a chance to deploy a fresh trained IHH combat group aboard the ship and send it on to Gaza, thereby provoking another clash with the Israeli Navy.
An even more dramatic encounter would ensue if an escort of Turkish warships and jets were attached to the blockade-buster vessel, except that Erdogan now believes that Israel has been so intimidated by the international outcry against its military operation on the Marmara that Benyamin Netanyahu will not dare mount another challenge to his plans.
3. IHH and Free Gaza Movement agents are currently on the lookout for bigger passenger ships than the Mavi Marmara for their next flotilla. Erdogan has provided them with enough money to buy eight or ten vessels to blow the Israeli blockade sky high. The idea is to have them ready to launch Free Gaza Flotilla 2 in about six weeks. Erdogan's planners are thinking of placing Turkish marines aboard the ships to deter Israel from attacking them as well as armed naval and air escorts.
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The language heard in Jerusalem for the fallout of the Israeli commando raid of the Turkish-led Gaza-bound flotilla of May 31 was the harshest ever heard from members of Binyamin Netanyahu's government. One senior minister called the international chorus of censure a 'lynch in broad daylight.' Others said Israel was being inundated with "a tsunami of hate," stunned by exhibitions in many places, and not just Tehran, of a burning desire to eradicate the Jewish state.
On Wednesday night, June 2, the Prime Minister went before TV cameras to declare that Israel was under attack by an international coalition of hypocrites.
While most of his aides found his words emotional, they too were moved to ask: Where is the United States just when Israel needs the support of a rock against an international lynch mob? After all, when President Barack Obama invited Netanyahu to meet him at the White House Tuesday, June 1, his avowed purpose was to seal the efforts he has made in the last month to mend his fences with Jerusalem and recover the support of American Jewish leaders, after admitting he erred in his mistreatment of Israel and was anxious to make amends.
(The meeting did not take place because the prime minister was recalled home in a hurry in the wake of the damage caused by flotilla episode.)
Actions inconsistent with pledges of a new page
At the same time, Obama administration's most recent actions in two important international arenas were not exactly consistent with the president's promise to turn a new page with Israel.
1. The United States supported a resolution at the Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference which singled Israel out for a call to join the treaty and place its nuclear facilities under international inspection. The resolution also calls for a summit in 2012 to work for a nuclear-free Middle East. Iran was not mentioned in the text.
2. This week, the United States joined a United Nations Security Council statement "condemning the loss of life and injuries" resulting from the use of force during the Israeli military operation in international waters against the convoy sailing to Gaza and condemned those acts and calling for an impartial investigation.
True the American delegation took the worst sting out of the motion and straight after the incident the Obama administration voiced "deep regret" -which sounded better than European Union leaders' condemnation of Israel for using "excessive force."
Still, officials in Jerusalem and many people in Washington believe that by letting Israel stand alone against what feels like a diplomatic "lynch mob" without strong US support provides many governments and movements with a green light to fire their heaviest guns for blowing Israel away.
On Tuesday, June 1, Meir Dagan, Director of the Mossad, Israel's external security agency, was asked by Prime Minister Netanyahu for a rejoinder to the US government's shilly-shallying in Israel's time of need.
In a rare public appearance before the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, he did not pull his punches.
America as a jackal in decline
The progressive decline of American strength over the past decade and the perception of the Obama administration as "soft on military options for solving disputes" have shrunk Israel's space for military manoeuvre and made it fair game for its enemies. America's ability to generate situation-changing measures in any part of the world was waning, said the Mossad chief, and this weakness reflects directly and negatively on Israel's strategic wellbeing.
He warned that the current US administration is in the process of making of Israel "a liability instead of an asset." The US president, said the Mossad chief, seriously considered forcing Israel to accept a dictated peace formula. He only backed off when he saw this tactic would not produce a peace accord.
But that was "only a tactical retreat, said Dagan. Events of this nature could career out of control "and lead (US-Israel relations) into extreme situations."
The same day, the Weekly Standard published an article by Elliott Abrams, a former senior foreign policy adviser to two US Republican presidents, entitled "Joining the Jackals – The Obama administration abandons Israel."
The article made a big impression on American Jewry. It was then that the Obama administration understood that its actions had wiped out the advantages his fence-mending campaign had gained among American Jews.
The next day, on Wednesday, he sent Vice President Joe Biden to PBS' Charlie Rose program with a change of tune: "While Israel's actions in dropping troops on the ships can be argued," said Biden. "Jerusalem which has had 3,000 rockets falling on its citizens has the right to know what cargo is headed to Gaza. So what's the big deal?"
But his words did not stem the tide of hate pouring down on the Jewish state from the four corners of the world - nor was it intended to, since not by a single word was Turkey condemned for whipping it up by aligning itself with - and utilizing the services of - the most destructive, hate-driven, anti-West and anti-Israel radical elements, including terrorists in close rapport with al Qaeda.
Jerusalem will not forget this letdown in a hurry - and neither will American Jewish leaders.
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A funny thing happened to Gaza's Hamas rulers this week. Israel's commando raid on the Turkish Mavi Marmara on May 31 prevented the flotilla it led from docking at Gaza Port, but it also generated a new, unforeseen reality which placed their armed offensive and Israel's strategic maneuverability on a completely new footing.
If Israel saw its friends disappearing (see separate article in this issue), Hamas found new champions in unexpected places, who presented him with great new opportunities on a platter:
1. Military action for vanquishing the Jewish state suddenly looked superfluous. Hamas' missiles and rockets may continue to terrorize Israel's southwestern towns and villages in the months or years to come, but they will never generate the astounding benefits dropped in the extremist Palestinian movement's laps this week, without their lifting a finger. All they had to do was to hang out welcoming flags for the flotilla's Free Gaza sympathizers across the Gaza Strip. Even though the ships did not reach Gaza, the effect they created was just as good and cause for celebration.
2. This perceived success has placed Israel and Egypt and their siege of Gaza on the defensive.
Egypt read the omens first and announced on Tuesday, June 1, the reopening the territory's Sinai border crossing for several days. Cairo may find it hard in the political and military climate prevailing in the Middle East to restore its tight restrictions on traffic through Sinai into Gaza.
Israel too finds its naval blockade seriously challenged by the Turkish-initiated flotilla expedition.
The lifting of Egyptian restrictions opens the Rafah route to the import of non-military goods, allowing Gaza's smuggling tunnels to revert exclusively to the illicit traffic of weaponry for the Hamas and their fellow extremists. This is a windfall they never believed possible in the circumstances prior to the flotilla episode; it is a serious setback for Israel's efforts to defend its southwestern population against missile and terrorist assaults.
3. Three years after seizing power in the Gaza Strip in a coup against Mahmoud Abbas' Palestinian Authority, Hamas leaders see their moderate rivals as a spent force with nothing to show for their acceptance of US patronage in terms of political gains for the Palestinian people and Israeli concessions.
In the eyes of Hamas, the nascent radical camp led by Iran, Syria and Turkey used its baptism of fire this week as the platform for an astoundingly successful propaganda campaign generating support from the West as well as the Muslim world for the Palestinian extremists, and pressure for Israel to end its embargo of the Gaza Strip - unconditionally. The surging radical propaganda has drowned out demands for Hamas to recognize Israel, abandon violence and free its hostage, Gilead Shalit.
Gaza's rulers are convinced more than ever before that going along with the new radical camp pays the richest dividends and will soon catapult them into the seat of West Bank government in Ramallah in place of the Abbas-Fayad regime - without firing a shot.
Hamas looks forward to the bidding between Ankara and Tehran
The Palestinian Hamas, like the Lebanese Hizballah, found confirmation in this latest incident that, withal its military and technological prowess, Israel never manages to bring its military campaigns against radical Islamist foes to a final victory - or even completion. Israel's generals are invariably ordered by the politicians, whether in Jerusalem or Washington, to hold their horses in mid-course and wait for international diplomacy to kick on. The result more often than not sends Israeli troops falling back to the starting line.
The retilting of the Middle East balance of strength is perceived by Hamas as presenting it with fresh choices of sponsors.
Which radical Islamic power best suits its interests? Stick with Tehran, its chief supplier of military hardware, and training, or strike out in a new direction by sending its leaders on their first trips to Ankara?
Their decision can wait. Tehran and Ankara are not yet vying for the lead-position in their new radical Islamic bloc or bidding for support from inside their camp. For the present, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is grateful to the flotilla episode for diverting Western attention from his nuclear program and happy to walk hand in hand with Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan.
But in Gaza and Damascus, there is awareness that this idyll may be short-lived. Once the United States and Israel are shunted to the sidelines, Ankara and Tehran will challenge each other for the top spot in the Middle East leadership stakes and the prerogative for dictating its agenda.
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May 28, 2010 Briefs
• At least 70 killed, hundreds injured by Taliban gunmen who stormed two large mosques in Lahore, Pakistan during Friday worship. They subjected hundreds of trapped worshippers, members of the minority Ahmadiyeh sect to hours of systematic shooting and grenade attacks.
• London Times: Hizballah runs weapons from secret depots in Syria. Satellite images showed a Hizballah-run compound near Adra, NE of Damascus.
• A Qassam missile caused damage in Shaar Hanegev region Thursday night.
• A US soldier killed in south Afghanistan Thursday was the 1,000th to die in the 10-year conflict.
May 29, 2010 Briefs
• Palestinians in Gaza keep up attacks on Ashkelon for fifth day. Two Qassam missiles exploded outside town Saturday night, a third fell short on border fence.
• Netanyahu verifies information that Hizballah is housing its Scud missiles in a Syrian base.
• Israel will not cooperate with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty conference's motion.
Egyptian forces battle Sinai Bedouin jihadist smugglers
29 May: For four days, Egyptian special forces have been fighting Bedouin tribesmen in rugged central Sinai in an effort to shut down the arms-cum-fighter smuggling highway they run for al Qaeda and the Palestinian Hamas, debkafile's counter-terror sources report. The al Qaeda-led tribesmen are battling Egyptian APCs, artillery and helicopters with heavy machine guns and RPGs in battles so fierce that the Egyptians retired to El Arish Saturday, May 29, to recuperate, restock on ammo and collected reinforcements for the next round.
The tribesmen have developed a lucrative trade as Al Qaeda's main clandestine pipeline for moving weapons and fighters out of the Red Sea countries of Somalia, Yemen and Saudi Arabia and over to Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. The Bedouin also run a regular supply line of arms and goods to the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip through the Sinai tunnels.
Of late, the Bedouin have expanded their service to running fighters and weapons into the Gaza Strip to bolster Al Qaeda-affiliates.
May 30, 2010 Briefs
• Israeli naval vessel broadcasts warning to Gaza-bound pro-Palestinian flotilla 120 miles from the coast. Captain advised to stay clear of Israel's 20-nautical mile blockade zone around Gaza. He was told he would be held responsible for the consequences if he failed to heed warning.
• Like Israel, India again refuses to join the Non-Proliferation Treaty calling it "discriminatory".
• Gen. McChrystal, NATO commander in Afghanistan finds clear evidence that Iran provides Taliban with weaponry and training.
Israel condemns nuclear conference resolution
30 May: Israel will not implement the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Review conference resolution due to its "flawed, hypocritical and distorted nature," according to a government statement. Earlier, President Barack Obama deplored Israel's mention in the resolution, which called for a Middle East nuclear-free conference in two years. "We strongly oppose efforts to single out Israel," said Obama, "and US delegation leader NSA James Jones said this placed the 2012 conference prospects in doubt and called Iran the greatest nuclear proliferation threat in the region.
Iran which is racing to develop nuclear weapons and threatens to wipe Israel off the map was not even mentioned in the resolution, said the Israeli statement.
After the Obama administration voted for the motion despite its mention of Israel - the first US government to do so in 15 years - Jerusalem is likely to hold out for guarantees that Washington will thwart future steps against its security interests. Jerusalem has made preservation of its security the sine qua non for progress in peace diplomacy.
Iranian Guards general assassinated in Damascus
30 May: The death of Khalil Sultan, a high-ranking general of the IRGC's al Qods external terror branch, at his home in the exclusive Damascus district of Al Mezzeh Sunday, May 16 is now revealed to have been assassination by an unknown hand. Syrian and Iranian government circles are deeply shocked. Working under deep cover, Khalil ran Iranian Revolutionary Guards' covert operations in Damascus and Beirut, including hits against anti-Iranian elements.
The authorities in Damascus said at the time that the general, whom they described as a rich Syrian businessman, sales agent for the Iranian Kordo automobile manufacturers, was killed in the course of a robbery. But the gang which burst into his luxury villa and gunned him down removed documents and laptops but not valuables.
The victim was close to the al Qods Brigades chief Gen. Qassem Suleimeni, and also al friend of the Iranian general who recently defected to the West, whom they name as Gen. Reza Baba Hossein.
Sultan's duties and diverse connections suggest three different parties may have wanted him dead.
May 31, 2010
• Demonstrators tried to storm Israeli consulate in Istanbul.
• Arab-Israeli protesters against flotilla incident at Umm al-Fahm northeast of Tel Aviv pelt police with rocks and firebombs. Arabs from Jerusalem's Issawiyeh tried to storm Hadassah, Mt. Scopus hospital after cutting fence. A thousand demonstrators in Nazareth.
• Mortar shell from Gaza exploded outside Sderot Monday night.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu cuts short N. American visit and return home. His White House talks with President Obama postponed.
• Netanyahu: Obama promised Israel guarantees strengthening our security and deterrent capabilities.
• Barak regretted loss of life but held pro-Hamas flotilla activists wholly responsible.
• The embargo-busting flotilla was initiated by Turkish PM and aid society associated with Hamas. Israel says there is no humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the boats are a pro-Hamas political provocation to delegitimize the Jewish state.
• Chief of staff Ashkenazi said Turkish vessel passengers were exceptionally violent. Israeli commandos shot back only when their lives were at risk and anti-riot measures failed.
• Ankara recalls its ambassador from Tel Aviv, calls for emergency UN Assembly session.
• Israel's Counter Terror Bureau warns Israelis to avoid traveling to Turkey.
Why was Israeli raider force unprepared for violent resistance?
31 May: More questions than answers came from the IDF video shots of the violent reception for the Israeli naval commandos who raided a Turkish ship bound for Gaza early Monday, May 31.
Prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, who cancelled his trip to the United States and is flying straight home from Canada, will have to fill in the gaps.
Israel's chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazi, and Navy commander, Maj. Gen. Eliezer Marom, reported that a fierce clash developed aboard the ship as the soldiers dropped on deck from helicopters and were mobbed by passengers wielding firebombs, stun grenades, broken glass, slingshot, iron bars, axes and knives. The soldiers nonetheless performed their mission of preventing the flotilla from docking in Gaza Port and diverting it to Ashdod - but at what cost?
The Border Police would have handled themselves better against the activists' arsenal of and with far less risk of loss of life.
The operation's planners seriously underestimating this resistance and sendt the men in armed only with paintball guns and Glock pistols, with orders to shoot only if their lives were at risk. They opened fire after half a dozen of their number were badly hurt.
The entire episode bespeaks faulty intelligence on what was going on aboard the six vessels bound for Gaza, although they were tracked with daily live broadcasts and were easy to visit.
And another question: The IDF is famous for its innovative electronic warfare capabilities. So why were the signals and images coming from the convoy not jammed as promised and allowed to reach world TV screens hours before the authorities responsible for Israeli information woke up?
June 1, 2010 Briefs
• Two Palestinian terrorists killed in battle after crossing Gaza border to attack Israel civilians. They were intercepted opposite Kibbutz Nirim Tuesday morning. Civilians in surrounding villages took shelter during firefight.
• UN Security Council calls for prompt, impartial, credible and transparent investigation of the flotilla incident. SC condemns acts causing loss of civilian lives, requests immediate release of ships and civilians held by Israel.
• Al Qaeda reports its No. 3 in Afghanistan Mustafa Abu al-Yazid was killed in US drone attack in Pakistan's tribal areas. Egyptian-born terrorist was believed main conduit to Osama Bin Laden.
June 1, 2010 Briefs
• Egypt temporarily lifts its side of the Gaza blockade to allow aid to enter through Rafah. Action taken to fend off pressure at Arab League meeting on Israel's flotilla raid Tuesday.
• Mossad chief Dagan: Iran runs into many technical hitches in nuclear program, lags behind desired timeline.
• Netanyahu: Flotilla Incident was international provocation by supporters of Iran and its terrorist enclave Hamas.
• Israeli Air Force hit Popular Committees' three-man missile team Tuesday afternoon after killing two who crossed the Gaza border to attack Israeli civilians. Later Palestinians fired a rocket-propelled grenade at an Israel border patrol.
Mossad chief: Obama's perceived softness weakens Israel
1 June: In a rare public expression of concern, Meir Dagan, head of Israel's Mossad external security service, warned Tuesday, June 1, that the progressive decline of American strength over the past decade and the perception of the Obama administration as "soft on military options for solving disputes" have cut deep into Israel's military and diplomatic room for manoeuver and made it fair game for its enemies.
Dagan's uncharacteristic bluntness was a measure of the anxiety gripping Israel's security leaders over the slump in US-Israel relations.
He warned Jerusalem and Jewish leaders not to be taken in by Obama's smiles and understand that he has not given up on an imposed peace solution or radically amended his attitude toward Israel. He is in the process of turning Israel from an American asset to a liability - a process that could lead to extreme situations.
More boats head for Gaza as Israel vows to stop them
1 June: With two more vessels due to continue the challenge to Israel's Gaza blockade, Israel's deputy defence minister Mattan Vilnai stressed the commando raid on the pro-Palestinian flotilla succeeded bravely in its mission - although the loss of life was regrettable. Mistakes were made but the IDF would learn from them and defend the blockade in other ways, he said.
He dismissed rising demands at home for the defence minister Ehud Barak to step down. The images of Israeli elite commandos beaten with iron bars - one was thrown off the top deck - infuriated Israelis.
Vilnai admitted: We underestimated the murderous intentions of the activists aboard the Turkish Marmora vessel and the force of international reaction to televised shots of a brutal situation - real battles never look good on television. In that sense, the Turkish-led international expedition achieved its aim.
Veteran naval officers were especially caustic about the handling of the operation and want the defense minister to be held accountable for sending the naval commandos of the elite Shayetet 6 unit into a clearly violent confrontation without adequate means of defense because he was afraid of international disapproval.
June 2, 2010 Briefs
• Visiting Czech Senate President P?emysl Sobotka calls for more balanced Europeans expressions on flotilla incident. Europeans are not saying what they think, that it was a provocation and that Hamas are terrorists.
• Taliban suicide bombers, gunmen break up big tribal meeting in Kabul to prepare peace conference. Karzai who called the conference flees the scene of carnage.
• Israeli diplomatic families evacuated from Turkey. Diplomats remain in Ankara and Istanbul.
• Ahmadinejad threatens Israel with destruction for any action anywhere.
• Nicaragua severs relations with Israel over the flotilla incident.
• The 20-year old charter line to Anatalia resorts discontinued as Israeli tourism to Turkey dries up.
• Dublin threatens to expel Mossad embassy official over Hamas killing in Dubai - as Irish vessel Rachel Corrie stands by to challenge Israel's Gaza blockade. The Irish PM has warned Israel not to harm the Irish-flagged vessel.
Turkey, Israel near clash. Israel flies embassy families out
2 June: debkafile reports: Acting to stop the flotilla crisis from spinning out of control, US president Barack Obama asked Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to release all the remaining passengers without delay, to which he acceded. In Ankara, Obama's request for restraint fell on deaf ears. The Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan said if America did not punish Israel, Turkey would. Israel then began evacuating diplomats' families and preparing for Ankara's next steps.
Erdogan's accusations are negated by his consorting with terrorists, including an al Qaeda offshoot, to harrass Israel in support of the Palestinian Hamas. Passengers told how the Turkish Marmara had been commandeered by terrorists supported by the Ankara government who had been rounded up for the expedition by the Turkish Insani Yardim Vakfi- IHH, which is listed by the American CIA as an al Qaeda-linked Islamist terrorist organization with bases in Turkey, Bosnia and Bulgaria.
Israel intelligence agencies have questions to answer, principally, how they missed this terrorist presence aboard the Turkish ship.
Rachel Corrie stops over in Turkey before heading for Gaza
2 June: Five planes flew out of Israel Wednesday night, June 2, carrying hundreds of foreign passengers and nine bodies from the Turkish-led flotilla raided by Israeli commandos raided and prevented from breaking the Gaza blockade two days ago. The next day they were given mass-attendance state funerals as martyrs. After surrendering to Turkey's ultimatum to release all the passengers, including the seven members of Islamist terrorist groups who assaulted the Israeli boarding party, debkafile reports the Netanyahu government faced a fresh ultimatum from Ankara: Lift the Gaza blockade now.
June 3, 2010 Briefs
• Netanyahu: Foreign ships will not be allowed to reach Gaza. The Rachel Corrie will be stopped if it tries to break through the blockade.
• Police break up stormy protest against PM Erdogan outside Turkish embassy in Tel Aviv.
• Four Qassam missiles fired from Gaza Thursday night caused no harm.
• Turkey gives nine pro-Hamas activists killed in clashes with Israeli raiders aboard the Marmara a state funeral as martyrs.
• Biden: Maybe Israel should be more flexible but it has the right know what arms Hamas is smuggling in to Gaza. So what's the big deal about the blockade? Netanyahu tells foreign correspondents that lifting the blockade would lead to an Iranian port in Gaza - a threat to Israel and Europe.
• Israel tries diplomacy with Turkey, Ireland, to stop Rachel Corrie heading for Gaza.
• Iran's central bank reduces crude oil sales in euros, switches to dollars, starts converting euro reserves to US currency.
• Former French investigating judge Bruguiere confirms Turkish IHH had longstanding ties to terrorism networks including a 1999 al Qaeda plot to bomb LA airport. State Dept. spokesman: "We know IHH reps met senior Hamas officials in Turkey, Syria and Gaza in past three years. This is of great concern to us".
http://www.debka.com/article/8827/
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 2, 2010, 7:21 AM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Israel 
Obama Pro-Hamas flotilla Turkey
debkafile reports: Early Wednesday, June 2, US president Barack Obama stepped into the fast-deteriorating flotilla crisis to stop it from spinning out of control. In secret phone calls, he asked Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to release all the remaining passengers without delay as well as the six ships. He then tried to reason with the incandescent Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan, who had just branded the Israeli raid a "bloody massacre."
Offering deep condolences for the loss of life aboard the flotilla, the US president said better ways must be found to bring humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza without undermining Israel 's security. He supported the UN Security Council's call for "a credible, impartial and transparent investigation" of the event, but refused to condemn Israel or take the inquiry out of its hands.
debkafile reports from Ankara that Erdogan declined to be talked round, declaring that if America did not punish Israel for insolently "trampling on human honor", Turkey would.
Overnight, Israel began evacuating diplomats' families from Turkey. Diplomatic and consular staff were left in place in Ankara and Istanbul and told along with security firms to stand by for departure.
Netanyahu called the second security cabinet meeting in two days after the first on Tuesday approved the continued blockade of Gaza against all attempts to break it.
Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad again threatened Israel with destruction for any action it may take anywhere and its Western supporters with international trial as war criminals.
Israel is preparing for Ankara 's next steps that would defy President Obama's bid to find a way out of the crisis between the two former allies. In Jerusalem , Erdogan's accusations were deemed an unfounded and unjustified assault considering the evidence that he had consorted with terrorists, including an al Qaeda offshoot, to bring Israel under pressure in support of the Palestinian extremist Hamas.
This evidence released by the IDF Monday night, June 1, described how the Turkish Marmara, the flotilla's lead vessel, had been commandeered by terrorists indirectly supported by the Ankara government's subsidy to the Turkish Insani Yardim Vakfi - IHH, which is listed by the American CIA as an al Qaeda-linked Islamist terrorist organization with bases in Turkey, Bosnia and Bulgaria.
Those passengers attested to more than a hundred members of terrorist organizations aboard acting like a quasi-military group with a command hierarchy, whose leader forced the other four or five hundred passengers to fall into line behind them. The group was split into sub-sections, each in charge of a section of the ship before and after it set sail from Istanbul. Its members were all armed with an assortment of chains, iron bars and knives as well as night goggles and gas masks.
Although they appeared to hail from different terrorist organizations from various countries, they were all ordered to say they belonged to the IHH.
The group kept the ship to a strict military regiment, including round-the-clock guards in the different sections of the Marmara.
When the ship was brought to Ashdod port and the passengers removed early Tuesday, the IHH members were found without identification papers of any kind. Either the Turkish authorities at Istanbul were instructed to let them embark aboard the Marmara without documents or they threw them overboard before the ship docked at Ashdod . Each had an envelope stuffed with thousands of dollars.
debkafile's intelligence sources disclose that, when first brought in, the Turkish terror activists refused to answer questions. By Tuesday nightfall, a few began talking and admitted to being members of IHH and its ties with al Qaeda's Balkan outfit. Throughout the interrogations, Israel intelligence was in contact with colleagues in Western services for help to identify them by means of fingerprints and other physical features.
Our counter-terror sources report that Israel must now decide whether to prosecute some of the activists, including Israeli Arabs, on board the Marmara, on charges of collaborating with an international terrorist organization.
During Tuesday, Israel began deporting the 679 passengers - including 128 for Arab and Muslim countries through Jordan . The rest will be flown out within 48 hours. Three Turkish jets were due to collect them Wednesday. Eight Israel trucks brought assistance products from the ships to Gaza Tuesday; another 10 will make deliveries Wednesday.
Israel intelligence agencies too have questions to answer - principally, how they missed spotting the terrorist presence aboard the putative aid-for- Gaza convoy and let a naval force undertake the mission to divert the ships to Ashdod, without preparing them for a violent confrontation with a determined, well-organized group of violent men.
http://www.debka.com/article/8836/
DEBKAfile Special Report June 4, 2010, 10:03 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Gaza blockade Rachel Corrie Turkish PM
Turkish ambassador to Washington Namik Tan threatened his government would break relations with Israel unless it apologizes for the commando raid on its flotilla for Gaza . Israel must also accept an indepdent probe and end its Gaza blockade. In Turkey , prime minster Recep Erdogan said Friday, June 4: "I do not think Hamas is a terrorist organization. They are Palestinians in resistance, fighting for their own land," whereas Israelis were no better than Somali pirates.
This was Turkey's response to the Netanyahu government's newfound willingness to soften its determination to maintain Israel's sea and land blockade against the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip - even though the great majority of Israelis believe the blockade is vital to national security and acclaim the naval commandos' raid on the Turkish-led flotilla as heroic.
debkafile's military and political sources report that in public, the prime minister and defense and foreign ministers avow their resolve to keep Gaza sealed under tight Israeli control to prevent Iranian arms ships from docking there - for as long as Hamas is at war with the Jewish state.
In practice, however, Israel has opened the door for international, even pro-Palestinian Hamas elements, to monitor foreign freights bound for the Gaza Strip.
This was revealed Friday morning, June 4, in a statement by Foreign Ministry Director-General Yossie Gal about the message he relayed to the Rachel Corrie, the last remaining vessel of the Turkish-led flotilla vessel now on its way to Gaza .
He said: "I would like to transfer a message once more that has already been conveyed through public and private channels to the ship: We have no interest in boarding the ship. If it sails directly to Ashdod port, we will secure its crew and refrain from boarding it. Israel is prepared to receive the ship and unload its cargo. After it is checked to makes sure it contains no weapons, we will be prepared to transfer all of the goods to Gaza ."
But then the Israeli official invited the activists on board the Rachel Corrie to accompany the shipment to the Gaza border.
"We will cooperate with the UN and international organizations in order to ensure that all of the cargo is put to the use of Gaza 's citizens," he said.
He refrained from mentioning that the activists he had invited to accompany the shipment include members of the violently anti-Israel Free Gaza Organization, partners of the Turkish IHH terrorist group, known for its ties with Hamas and al Qaeda.
The Rachel Corrie responded by denying any message or warning had come from Israel . They were determined to reach Gaza , not Ashkelon . If the ship is diverted to Ashdod , they said, they would not resist Israeli soldiers but sit on the decks and refuse to cooperate.
Foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman declared firmly Friday night: No ships will reach Gaza . "There is nothing simpler than getting us to open the Gaza crossings: Let the Red Cross visit Gilead Shalit," he said.
debkafile's counter-terror sources report: The Turkish government and radical Palestinian and non-Palestinian organizations are working closely together on their next moves, using the first flotilla boarded by Israeli commandos this week as the vanguard of a broader challenge to Israel . They see its Gaza blockade as the outer rampart to be knocked over first. Erdogan has earmarked millions of dollars for the IHH to purchase eight or ten ships bigger than the Mavi Marmara for their next assault, packed with the same "peace activists" as before.
Any sign of Israeli weakness in response to international censure on encourages them to redouble their efforts on behalf of Hamas. In his latest brickbat for Israel , Erdogan saw no contradiction between quoting the Ten Commandments: "Thou shalt not kill" - while solidly backing the murderous Palestinian organization dedicated to Israel 's destruction.
The "peace activists" aboard the Mavi Marmara were recorded on video as telling each other: "Remember September 11th." Their pockets were found stuffed with thousands of dollars.
In Jerusalem , police were out in force to quell Palestinian riots in support of Turkey . Hurling rocks at passing Israeli cars on the streets of East Jerusalem , the demonstrators shouted: "Erdogan, come and destroy Tel Aviv!" Turkish flags were seen on city streets for the first time since the Ottoman Empire was defeated.
http://www.debka.com/article/8829/
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 3, 2010, 12:11 AM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Israel-Turkey Pro-Hamas flotilla Rachel Corrie
Five planes flew out of Israel Wednesday night, June 2, carrying hundreds of foreign passengers and nine bodies from the Turkish-led flotilla Israeli commandos raided and prevented from breaking the Gaza blockade two days ago. After surrendering to Turkey 's ultimatum to release all the passengers, including the seven members of Islamist terrorist groups who assaulted the Israeli boarding party, debkafile reports the Netanyahu government faced a fresh ultimatum from Ankara : Lift the Gaza blockade at once.
In his televised message to the nation Wednesday night , Netanyahu pledged "to continue to uphold our right to self-defense against terror," but gave no specific undertaking to preserve the blockade.
Our counter-terror sources confirm that for the first time ever, the government in Jerusalem flouted legal and judicial opinion and sent out of Israel's jurisdiction a pack of terrorists who were filmed attacking Israeli soldiers without trial, together with the bodies of unidentified assailants without giving the investigating authorities a chance to carry out autopsies and find out if they were wanted for security offensives.
After Israel gave way on this, the Erdogan government upped the pressure with further ultimatums.
After declaring it was vital to prevent hundreds of Iranian ships reaching Gaza with thousands of heavy ballistic missiles for Hamas, Netanyahu faced a fresh Turkish demand to lift the blockade on Gaza without delay.
Furthermore, the Irish vessel Rachel Corrie, which was left out of the flotilla after it developed technical trouble, was discovered to have changed course from a direct route to Gaza and headed for a stopover at a Turkish port. debkafile's counter-terror sources disclose suspicions in the Israeli government and naval command that the Irish ship would take aboard a new batch of trained Turkish IHH terrorists and head for the Gaza Strip. They might even be the same IHH activists who attacked Israeli commandos on the Marmara and were deported Wednesday.
Erdogan has resolved that this group which he personally sponsored will reach Gaza Port by hook or by crook. It is also feared in Jerusalem that he may attach an escort of Turkish warships and air force jets to accompany the Rachel Corrie and make sure the ship breaks through the blockade to its destination.
The Irish ship was first scheduled to anchor Saturday, June 5, but its detour to Turkey will delay its arrival by a couple of days.
http://www.debka.com/article/8827/
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 2, 2010, 7:21 AM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Israel Obama Pro-Hamas flotilla Turkey
debkafile reports: Early Wednesday, June 2, US president Barack Obama stepped into the fast-deteriorating flotilla crisis to stop it from spinning out of control. In secret phone calls, he asked Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu to release all the remaining passengers without delay as well as the six ships. He then tried to reason with the incandescent Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan, who had just branded the Israeli raid a "bloody massacre."
Offering deep condolences for the loss of life aboard the flotilla, the US president said better ways must be found to bring humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza without undermining Israel 's security. He supported the UN Security Council's call for "a credible, impartial and transparent investigation" of the event, but refused to condemn Israel or take the inquiry out of its hands.
debkafile reports from Ankara that Erdogan declined to be talked round, declaring that if America did not punish Israel for insolently "trampling on human honor", Turkey would.
Overnight, Israel began evacuating diplomats' families from Turkey. Diplomatic and consular staff were left in place in Ankara and Istanbul and told along with security firms to stand by for departure.
Netanyahu called the second security cabinet meeting in two days after the first on Tuesday approved the continued blockade of Gaza against all attempts to break it.
Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad again threatened Israel with destruction for any action it may take anywhere and its Western supporters with international trial as war criminals.
Israel is preparing for Ankara 's next steps that would defy President Obama's bid to find a way out of the crisis between the two former allies. In Jerusalem , Erdogan's accusations were deemed an unfounded and unjustified assault considering the evidence that he had consorted with terrorists, including an al Qaeda offshoot, to bring Israel under pressure in support of the Palestinian extremist Hamas.
This evidence released by the IDF Monday night, June 1, described how the Turkish Marmara, the flotilla's lead vessel, had been commandeered by terrorists indirectly supported by the Ankara government's subsidy to the Turkish Insani Yardim Vakfi - IHH, which is listed by the American CIA as an al Qaeda-linked Islamist terrorist organization with bases in Turkey, Bosnia and Bulgaria.
Those passengers attested to more than a hundred members of terrorist organizations aboard acting like a quasi-military group with a command hierarchy, whose leader forced the other four or five hundred passengers to fall into line behind them. The group was split into sub-sections, each in charge of a section of the ship before and after it set sail from Istanbul. Its members were all armed with an assortment of chains, iron bars and knives as well as night goggles and gas masks.
Although they appeared to hail from different terrorist organizations from various countries, they were all ordered to say they belonged to the IHH.
The group kept the ship to a strict military regiment, including round-the-clock guards in the different sections of the Marmara.
When the ship was brought to Ashdod port and the passengers removed early Tuesday, the IHH members were found without identification papers of any kind. Either the Turkish authorities at Istanbul were instructed to let them embark aboard the Marmara without documents or they threw them overboard before the ship docked at Ashdod . Each had an envelope stuffed with thousands of dollars.
debkafile's intelligence sources disclose that, when first brought in, the Turkish terror activists refused to answer questions. By Tuesday nightfall, a few began talking and admitted to being members of IHH and its ties with al Qaeda's Balkan outfit. Throughout the interrogations, Israel intelligence was in contact with colleagues in Western services for help to identify them by means of fingerprints and other physical features.
Our counter-terror sources report that Israel must now decide whether to prosecute some of the activists, including Israeli Arabs, on board the Marmara, on charges of collaborating with an international terrorist organization.
During Tuesday, Israel began deporting the 679 passengers - including 128 for Arab and Muslim countries through Jordan . The rest will be flown out within 48 hours. Three Turkish jets were due to collect them Wednesday. Eight Israel trucks brought assistance products from the ships to Gaza Tuesday; another 10 will make deliveries Wednesday.
Israel intelligence agencies too have questions to answer - principally, how they missed spotting the terrorist presence aboard the putative aid-for- Gaza convoy and let a naval force undertake the mission to divert the ships to Ashdod, without preparing them for a violent confrontation with a determined, well-organized group of violent men.
http://www.debka.com/article/8826/
DEBKAfile Special Report June 1, 2010, 7:16 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Mossad Director US-Israel
In a rare public expression of concern, Meir Dagan, head of Israel's Mossad external security service, warned Tuesday, June 1, that the progressive decline of American strength over the past decade and the perception of the Obama administration as "soft on military options for solving disputes" have cut deep into Israel's military and diplomatic maneuverability and made it fair game for its enemies. This is reported by debkafile's intelligence and political sources.
Dagan presented the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee with this evaluation 24 hours after Israeli Navy boarding parties prevented vessels sailing the Mediterranean from achieving their object of breaking the Gaza blockade. As the UN Security Council's condemned the loss of life in that raid, the Mossad chief said Barack Obama's first year as president was a period of "devaluation" for "Israeli and American strategic assets."
Dagan's uncharacteristic bluntness was a measure of the anxiety gripping Israel 's security leaders over the slump in US-Israel relations.
He timed his cutting observations for the day Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu was to have held talks in White House with President Obama. Although that meeting was cancelled and Netanyahu cut short his trip to return home and deal with the crisis over the flotilla incident, the Mossad Director decided that what he had to say was important enough to be said and aired without delay.
The Obama-Netanyahu meeting had been scheduled as a high point in President Obama's charm offensive for mending his ties with Israel and American Jewish leaders, Dagan noted. By speaking out now, he hoped they would be warned not to be taken in by Obama's smiles and understand that his attitude toward the Israeli government had not changed in any fundamental way.
America 's ability to generate situation-changing measures in any part of the world was in decline and this weakness reflects directly and negatively on Israel 's strategic situation. debkafile notes that by this remark, Dagan indirectly disputed the administration's National Security Strategy report published in Washington five days ago.
This comment also placed him in the middle of the internal political debate in Israel . Whereas opposition factions maintain the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians and other neighbours is stalled by Netanyahu's allegedly hard-line positions, the Mossad chief puts it in a different perspective: Whatever the prime minister may do and whichever policy he may pursue, in Dagan's view he is stuck with the endemic weakness stemming from American weakness and the Obama administration's waning support for Israel.
He warned the lawmakers that the current US administration is in the process of making of Israel "a liability instead of an asset." The US president, said the Mossad chief, seriously considered forcing Israel to accept a dictated peace formula. He only backed off when he saw that this tactic would not produce a peace accord. But that was "only a tactical retreat," said Dagan.
"Let's see what steps the Americans take in the future, especially after the midterm congressional elections in November," he said, because, while an imposed peace is only a last resort and not (the Obama administration's) preferred option, it is still on the table and a whip he is holding over the heads of both parties.
The Mossad chief concluded by saying: "Such events (a decision to resort to an imposed peace) could career out of control and lead (US-Israel relations) into extreme situations."
http://www.debka.com/article/8824/
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis May 31, 2010, 11:33 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Israeli naval commandos Pro-Hamas flotilla
More questions than answers came from the IDF video shots of the violent reception for Israeli naval commandos when they raided the Turkish ship early Monday, May 31 to prevent the pro-Palestinian flotilla from reaching Gaza Port and breaking the Israeli blockade on the Hamas-ruled territory.
Prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, who cancelled his trip to the United States and is flying straight home from Canada , will have to fill in the gaps left by his official spokesmen.
Released finally 12 hours after the event, the IDF shots failed to explain the big mystery of how soldiers armed with paint balls and pistols managed to kill 9 pro-Palestinian activists ( Ankara claims 15 Turkish dead) and injure at least 34 aboard the Turkish Marmora.
Together with six injured soldiers - two in critical condition - the wounded activists are being treated in Israeli hospitals.
Israel 's chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gaby Ashkenazi, and Navy commander, Maj. Gen. Eliezer Marom, reported that a fierce clash developed aboard the ship as the soldiers dropped on deck from helicopters and were mobbed by passengers. The activists fired pistols, but it is not clear if the guns were in the peace activists' luggage or snatched from the soldiers.
Neither is it clear how civilian protesters were able to disarm elite fighters of the Navy's Shayetet 6 unit.
The soldiers performed their mission of preventing the flotilla from docking in Gaza Port and opening the door to large-scale weapons deliveries - but at what cost?
Surely the operation's planners must have taken into account that the 600 mixed nationals aboard the Turkish vessel, the hard core of international Palestinian agitprop against Israel , would not receive the soldiers with flowers and white flags, any more than the demonstrators at Iblin and Naalin hand out to the Israeli Border Police breaking up their riots week after week.
The Border Police was bettered qualified to handle themselves against the arsenal the activists aboard the Turkish vessel used against the navy men, of firebombs, stun grenades, broken glass, slingshot, iron bars, axes and knives - and with far less risk of loss of life.
Also underestimated was the number of troops needed to commandeer the Turkish ship, control the wheelhouse and turn it round to Ashdod port. Each commando who shinnied down the ladder from a helicopter was besieged and separated from the unit, then beaten, stabbed and assaulted with flying objects. Some were pushed down into the hold and stripped of their anti-flak vests first. The soldiers reported they barely escaped lynching or possibly being taken hostage.
Any Israeli police officer dealing with Palestinian rioters knows that the first rule is never to get separated from the main force. The Shayatet 6 elite troops lacked this experience.
This error was compounded by the planners seriously underestimating expected resistance and sending the men in armed only with paintballs and pistols with orders to shoot only if their lives were at risk. They did open fire, but only after half a dozen of their number were badly hurt.
The entire episode bespeaks faulty intelligence on what was going on aboard the six vessels bound for Gaza , although the information was available from daily live broadcasts and easy access to visitors.
And another question: The IDF is famous for its innovative electronic warfare capabilities. So why were the signals and images coming from the convoy not jammed as promised and allowed to reach world TV screens hours before the authorities responsible for Israeli information woke up?
And finally, why did the interception take place 80 miles out to sea in international waters, thereby fueling the complaint that Israel broke international law? The blockade zone is 20 nautical miles deep from Gaza . An Israeli raid at that limit would have been easier to justify.
http://www.debka.com/article/8823/
DEBKAfile Special Report May 31, 2010, 11:35 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Israel-Greece Pro-Hamas flotilla Turkey
debkafile's military sources report Israeli concerns that Turkey may not confine itself to strong diplomatic retaliation for the Israel Navy's seizure Monday, May 31, of the Marmora, the Turkish vessel leading the flotilla for breaking the Gaza blockade and resort to military action along with the Iranian-backed Hizballah and Hamas. A statement from Ankara threatened "unprecedented and incalculable" reprisals, following which the Turkish chief of staff Gen. Ilker Basbug was recalled urgently to Ankara from a visit to Egypt . Greece has since halted its joint exercise with Israel in protest against the naval action.
debkafile reports from Ankara that the Turkish government is planning to continue pounding the Israeli blockade with more flotillas and have them escorted by Turkish warships and fighter jets. Israel merchant vessels moored outside Ashdod port have been instructed to sail into port and take shelter in case of missile attacks from the Gaza Strip against Ashdod and Ashkelon .
Monday morning, Israeli warplanes headed west over the Mediterranean in support of the still ongoing Israeli commando operation aboard the Turkish Marmora, the scene of violent clashes between Israeli troops and the 600 "peace activists," some of them armed. Ankara later reported 15 dead aboard the vessel.
Israeli army spokesman, Col. Avi Beneyahu, called the incident "an act of terror on the high seas." Far from being a humanitarian mission, the flotilla was sponsored personally by Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan to break the Israeli blockade on Gaza and permit arms supplies and terrorists to reach the Strip unrestricted. It aimed at provoking a widely publicized international incident with fatalities and showing Israel using strong-arm tactics against unarmed peace-lovers.
Its leaders and the nations involved therefore refused to heed warnings that the vessels would be prevented from entering Gaza Port and rejected Israeli offers to ferry their aid cargo overland to the Gaza Strip. Population within missile range of Gaza advised to take shelter in secured areas.
Nine activists were killed battling with Israeli troops, and dozens injured. Ten Israeli soldiers were wounded, two critically. They were all ferried to Israeli hospitals by helicopter.
The pro-Hamas passengers were described as mobbing the Israeli commandos as they were dropped onto the Marmara's deck, using knives and iron bars to beat them and shooting with a sidearm snatched from a soldier and at least two other pistols recovered empty from two of the bodies.
Israeli security forces are preparing for the Lebanese Hizballah and Palestinian Hamas to go back to shooting missiles and rockets against Israeli towns, in support of the seaborne attack on Israeli commandos. The police are also on special alert in and around Israeli Arab communities, after Hamas prime minister Ismail Haniyah called them out on a general strike, and the Holy Places, especially in Jerusalem .
Egypt will face pressure to end its joint embargo on Gaza with Israel at the Arab League Council meeting urgently Tuesday, June 1. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas demanded the session.
Demonstrations against Israel were staged in Syrian and Lebanese towns. Jordan hands stiff complaint to head of Israeli diplomatic mission in Amman .
http://www.debka.com/article/8821/
DEBKAfile Special Report May 30, 2010, 8:37 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: IRGC's Al Qods Murder in Damascus
The death of Khalil Sultan, a high-ranking general of the IRGC's al Qods external terror branch, at his home in the exclusive Damascus district of Al Mezzeh Sunday, May 16 is now revealed by French intelligence and Syrian exile sources in Paris to have been assassination by an unknown hand.
The authorities in Damascus said at the time that the general, whom they described as a rich Syrian businessman, sales agent for the Iranian Kordo automobile manufacturers, was killed in the course of a robbery.
In fact, according to debkafile's intelligence sources, Sultan ran Iranian Revolutionary Guards' covert operations in Damascus and Beirut under deep cover. The gang which burst into his luxury villa and gunned him down with automatic rifles removed only documents and laptops, but did not touch valuables, cash or gold.
As Tehran 's top operative for disposing of anti-Iranian elements in Syria and Lebanon , he worked in conjunction with Bashar Assad's intelligence branches. Their most recent joint project was the roundup of Iranian-Arab exiles from Ahwaz who live in Syria .
Western sources disclose that his death caused deep shock in top Syrian and Iranian government and security circles. His assassins' success in reaching this top secret agent in the most closely-guarded neighborhood of the capital, seat of Syrian government institutions and domicile of senior officials, has caused Syrian intelligence and the regime as a whole deep embarrassment - particularly after a long series of hits against high-profile Hizballah and Hamas operatives in the Syrian capital's most secure districts - like the case of Hizballah commander Imad Mughniyeh.
The victim was close to the al Qods Brigades chief Gen. Qassem Suleimeni, who is entrusted with the Islamic Republic's most hush-hush clandestine operations. French sources stress, on the other hand, that he was also a personal friend of the Iranian general who recently defected to the West. They name him as Gen. Reza Baba Hossein, the first time, debkafile's sources note, that this Iranian general has been publicly revealed to be a defector to the West.
that an Iranian general has been publicly named as a defector to the West.
Sultan's duties and diverse connections suggest three possible parties may have wanted him dead:
1. More than one foreign element had an interest in sabotaging Iran 's covert activities in Syria and Lebanon and the intelligence partnership between Tehran and Damascus .
2. Syrian opposition exiles in Paris point the finger at their Sunni compatriots who are involved in activities for weakening Iranian and Shiite influence in their country.
3. Sultan's friendship with the defecting general may have aroused Tehran's suspicion that he abetted his friend's escape - or even had contacts in Western intelligence himself - in which case, Iranian intelligence would have no qualms about signing his death warrant.
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