Zweineinhalb Jahre nach der Pleite von Lehman Brothers geht es an der Börse wieder aufwärts, die Banken erwirtschaften solide Gewinne. Doch die Krise ist noch nicht ausgestanden. In einer elfteiligen Serie beleuchtet die FTD, wo die Bedrohungen lauern. 17 Bewertungen Schriftgröße: AAA Teil 2: Akquise von Spareinlagen als KönigswegThursday, 12 August 2010
Zweineinhalb years after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers is in the stock market back up, banks generate solid profits. But the crisis is not over. In an eleven-part series highlights the FTD, which lurks the threat.
Other articles in the series
17 ratings Font size: AAA
08/12/2010, 10:04
The new crash risks
The 2000-billion-euro problem for European banks
© Image: 2010 Bloomberg
The screening of their budgets have passed the Institute very well. But the real stress test is yet to come, the banks have to refinance billions. On she comes to a refinancing avalanche. by Mareike Scheffer Frankfurt
Relaxation, wherever you look: the stress of stress tests behind most of the banks in Europe long to fall in the fund-raising is so important for their bond market, the interest cost, that is take from the risk premiums on government securities. Moreover, new papers are good, if not hot cakes. In short: At the bond market to what is going on for so long troubled banks.
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The new crash risks The fear of the second wave
More about: Banking, financial crisis, refinancing, debt restructuring
But on closer inspection it becomes quickly clear that the real stress test is yet to come.Europe must roll over money houses according to a study of British bank Barclays to the end of 2012 loans amounting to around € 1500 billion, so go again. Addition, there are 500 billion €, which they have borrowed from the central banks and must also repay to the end of 2012. € 2000 billion - a huge sum, even for the accustomed trillion in bond market.
"The refinancing on the capital for most banks in coming months, a major challenge," says Jörg Birkmeyer, banking analyst at DZ Bank. The refinancing risk rising, the experts also believe the Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg (LBBW).
Again, on face value
The institutes are not only fighting with the sheer mass of debt restructuring as well as significantly higher funding costs than before the crisis. Also the different maturities of debt the banks were preparing a headache, says expert Birkmeyer DR. Many institutions have in their lending too much on short-term current bank loans.
According to new data LBBW Bank loans now run the world on average in less than five years.This is the lowest figure since more than 30 years. A veritable avalanche of refinancing is rolling toward the institutions that are struggling with high interest rates all at the same investors. It's getting close to the gas station money.
Some experts see the situation even more relaxed. Not every loan, which is soon due, must be refinanced really.Their reason: Many banks must shrink their balance sheets after the crisis and issue fewer new papers, as maturing. There are also alternative sources of money. "The savings rates tend to rise and with them the savings of customers," said LBBW analyst about Markus Beck.
However, it may be difficult especially medium-sized and smaller institutions to include longer-term funds without too must offer high interest rates, fear the DZ-experts. tap into banks whose lending is highly dependent on capital market and it is difficult for other sources such as customer deposits will therefore have to shrink.
Part 2: Acquisition of savings as the ideal
1 2
Zweineinhalb years after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers is in the stock market back up, banks generate solid profits. But the crisis is not over. In an eleven-part series highlights the FTD, which lurks the threat.
Other articles in the series
19 ratings Font size: AAA
08/12/2010, 10:04
The new crash risks
The 2000-billion-euro problem for European banks
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Acquisition of savings as the ideal
In view of the acquisition of savings for even the analysts of the Barclays silver bullet. The more a bank can refinance the loans disbursed by it on client money, the more robust it is. As a result of the crisis, the deposit is clearly a contested than before. That is one reason why swallow as the German bank Postbank with its 14 million customers will eventually complete.
Maturities of long-term debt from banks in the euro area
Another, cheaper earlier opportunity to raise funds offer securities that are backed by collateral such as real estate or government loans. German bonds for example, or even its international offshoot, the so-called covered bonds.
You are more important than ever for banks. This becomes even down to the increasing number of banks that sell the first time ever covered bonds and obtain such fresh money. Provided they have sufficient high-quality loans, with which they can pledge those securities.
The next stress test is determined
But even if it created the banks to get liquidity to the capital market via conventional bonds, they risk, risks to move into the future. Sun, LBBW doubt in mind that creating the banks to change their funding structure and to issue more long-term bonds. "The banks remain vulnerable if market conditions deteriorate should." The short-term remains a problem for the banks - and the next stress test will definitely be on the industry.
Contribute a better translationDie neuen Crash-Risiken
Das 2000-Mrd.-Euro-Problem der europäischen Banken
Thursday, 12 August 2010
FTD-series: The main risks for the financial market
Part 2
German to English translation
FTD-series: The main risks for the financial market
FTD-Serie: Die größten Risiken für den Finanzmarkt
© Bild: 2010 Bloomberg
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