The IMPENDING-- UNAVOIDABLE-- ENERGY CRISIS
Robert L. Hirsch
- See also: Hirsch report
Dr. Robert L. Hirsch is a former senior energy program adviser for Science Applications International Corporation and is a Senior Energy Advisor at MISI and a consultant in energy, technology, and management. His primary experience is in research, development, and commercial applications. He has managed technology programs in oil and natural gas exploration and petroleum refining, synthetic fuels,fusion, fission, renewables, defense technologies, chemical analysis, and basic research.
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[edit]Professional experience
Dr. Hirsch has served on numerous advisory committees related to energy development, and he is the principal author of the report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, which was written for the United States Department of Energy.
Hirsch directed the US fusion energy program during the 1970s evolution of the Atomic Energy Commission (including initiation of theTokamak Fusion Test Reactor), through the Energy Research and Development Administration to the present Department of Energy. In addition to his role in development of fusion energy by magnetic confinement, Hirsch was also interested in inertially confined fusion.
His previous management positions include:
- Senior Energy Program Advisor, SAIC (World oil production)
- Senior Energy Analyst, RAND (Various energy studies)
- Vice President of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).
- Vice President and Manager of Research and Technical Services for Atlantic Richfield Co. (ARCO) (Oil and gas exploration and production).
- Founder and CEO of APTI, a roughly $50 million/year company now owned by BAE Systems. (Commercial & Defense Department technologies).
- Manager of Exxon’s synthetic fuels research laboratory.
- Manager of Petroleum Exploratory Research at Exxon. (Refining R & D).
- Assistant Administrator of the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA) responsible for renewables, fusion, geothermal and basic research. (Presidential Appointment).
- Director of fusion research at the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission and ERDA.
Hirsch has served as a consultant and on advisory committees for government and industry. He is past Chairman of the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems of the National Research Council, the operating arm of the National Academies, has served on a number of National Research Council committees, and is a National Associate of the National Academies. In recent years, he has focused on problems associated with the peaking of world conventional oil production and its mitigation.
[edit]Energy policy
Hirsch (2008) quantified how historic declines in world oil supply caused proportionate declines in world GDP. He provides a framework for mitigation planning including:
"(1) a Best Case where maximum world oil production is followed by a multi-year plateau before the onset of a monatomic decline rate of 2-5% per year; (2) A Middling Case, where world oil production reaches a maximum, after which it drops into a long-term, 2-5% monotonic annual decline; and finally (3) a Worst Case, where the sharp peak of the Middling Case is degraded by oil exporter withholding, leading to world oil shortages growing potentially more rapidly than 2-5% per year, creating the most dire world economic impacts."
[edit]Awards
Robert L. Hirsch was awarded the M. King Hubbert award in 2009 by the ASPO-USA[1]
[edit]Publications
Hirsch holds 14 patents and has over 50 publications in the energy field.
- Hirsch, Robert L. (February 27, 1979). Method of mounting a fuel pellet in a laser-excited fusion reactor. US Patent 4,142,088
- Hirsch, Robert L.; et al. (November 6, 1990). Coal seam discontinuity sensor and method for coal mining apparatus. US Patent 4,968,098
- Hirsch, Robert L.; et al. (2005, February). Peaking of world oil production: impacts, mitigation, & risk management. US Dept. Energy/National Energy Technology Lab.. pp. 91 [1]
- Hirsch, Robert L.; et al. (2005, November 28). "Peaking of world oil production: impacts, mitigation, & risk management". AIChE 52 (1): 2–8. doi:10.1002/aic.10747 [2]
- Hirsch, Robert L.; et al. (2005). Peaking of world oil production: impacts, mitigation, & risk management. US Dept. Energy/National Energy Technology Lab.[3]
- Hirsch, Robert L. (October 2005). "The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production". Atlantic Council of the United States, Bulletin XVI(3)[4]
- Hirsch, Robert L.; Bezdek, Roger H.; Wendling, Robert M. (2007, February 5). Peaking of world oil production: recent Forecasts. US Department of Energy/National Energy Technology Lab.. NETL-2007/1263. See the Hirsch report
- Hirsch, Robert L. (February 2008). "Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios". Energy Policy 36 (2): 881–889.doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.11.009 [5]
[edit]References
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[edit]External links
- Hirsch, Robert (1996-03-01). "The Energy Plateau". Public Utilities Reports, Inc..
- Hirsch, Robert L. (2005). "Peaking World Oil Production". ASPO.
- Hirsch, Robert (October 2005). "Shaping the peak of world oil production". WorldOil.com.
- "Dr. Robert L. Hirsch joins ASPO-USA advisory board". ASPO-USA. 2006-02-22.
- "Speakers, October 2007 conference". ASPO-USA. October 17–20, 2007.
- "Energy Expert Robert Hirsch to Lecture on Peaking of World Oil Production". U. Va. Today. November 28, 2007.
- Scott Weaver (12/04/2007 - 12/10/2007). "Energy expert warns about peak oil". C-VILLE.
- "Dr. Robert L. Hirsch, Senior Energy Advisor at MISI, Feb. 2008".
- ""Energy Roundtable", February 2, 2008".
- "Dr. Robert L. Hirsch Keynote Speech 2008 Alternative Fuels & Vehicles National Conference & Exposition, Las Vegas".
- Interview with Robert Hirsch on Peak Oil:. ""A Significant Period of Discomfort"". Allianz Knowledge Site, June 2008.
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EV World Open Access Article |
The Stonewalling of Peak Oil Dr. Robert Hirsch speaking at AFVI 2008 conference. By Steve Andrews Open Access Article Originally Published: September 09, 2009 Robert L. Hirsch is the lead author of a seminal report--Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation & Risk Management—written for the US Dept. ofEnergy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE, NETL) and released in early 2005. He has remained very active with respect to his concerns about peak oil. He will be a presenter at the ASPO-USA conference in Denver, October 11-13, 2009. Reprinted from the September 7, 12009 edition of Peak Oil Review, a publication of ASPO-USA. Question: What have been your primary areas of focus during your energy career? Hirsch: I started out in nuclear power. Then I did fusion research and later managed the government fusion program. I spent a lot of time with renewables over the years, including managing the federal renewables program. From there I went to the oil industry where I managed long range refining research and then synthetic fuels. Later I managed upstream research and development—exploration and production of oil and gas. Still later, I spent time in the electric power industry—all aspects of electric power. And then I got into energy studies and have been doing them for a number of years with Rand, SAIC, and now MISI. That's it from the work standpoint; from another standpoint I've been involved with the National Academies [of Science] in energy studies since 1979 and have been involved in almost every aspect of energy through the Academies, either as a committee participant or as Chairman of their Board on Energy and Environmental Systems. Question: When did you first learn about the peak oil issue? Hirsch: I learned about peak oil after I got out of the oil industry, because there was essentially no talk about it when I was involved. In the early 2000s I did a study for the DOE dealing with long range energy R&D planning. One of the six drivers that I came up with was peak oil; I had never really thought about it prior to that. It's kind of a “tar baby”; once you get your hands into it, you can't get your hands off of it. When oil production goes into decline, it's going to be a defining issue for humanity. So I've been involved for six or seven years in analyzing oil peaking and its mitigation. Question: How did the 2005 peak oil study for DOE's NETL come about? Hirsch: It was basically my creation. I was working with DOE NETL at the time, and they gave me a great deal of leeway to look into important subjects. I felt that peak oil was extremely important, so I did some study on my own and then proposed to NETL that I do a much larger study, with Roger Bezdek and Bob Wendling, who are extremely capable guys, who I had worked with along the way, and who were very pragmatic about energy and the real world. NETL accepted. I already was under contract, and they added Roger and Bob. We coordinated closely with NETL as we did the study, so they had input and knew what was coming. But when they saw the final report, it shocked them, even though they could see what was coming. This is nothing negative about people at NETL, but when you're thinking about other things most of the time, bad news creeping up on you doesn't necessarily capture your attention immediately. When the report was done, management at NETL really didn't know what to do with it because it was so shocking and the implications were so significant. Finally, the director decided that she would sign off on it because she was retiring and couldn't be hurt, or so I was told. The report didn't get widely publicized. It somehow was picked up by a high school someplace in California; eventually NETL put it on their website. The problem for people at NETL—and these are really good people—was that they were under a good deal of pressure to not be the bearers of bad news. |
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