The fire in the south has yet to end, and Netanyahu returned to discuss the Iranian threat. An interim conclusion of the fighting in the south: we won in points. The next combat round will take place soon, and will be at a higher level
Amir Rapaport 16/3/2012
Sunday, 18 March 2012
Only Begin and Meridor Would Tenaciously Oppose an Attack on Iran
The latest escalation round in the Gaza Strip has yet to come to a true
conclusion, and the Prime Minister has already returned to discussing the
real issue in the Israeli Knesset: the Iranian threat.
A week after the important meeting with US President Barack Obama, in which
Netanyahu “only” received a yellow card rather than a red one, with regards
to a potential Israeli strike on Iran, and the Prime Minister has already
started to work on public opinion (Israeli and Iranian) with a Knesset
speech. Does this mean that an attack will necessarily take place? No. It’s
doubtful that Netanyahu himself knows. A decision has yet to be made for or
against an attack. What is certain is that if Netanyahu and Minister of
Defense, Ehud Barak, decide to attack, they'll be able to pass a decision
through the cabinet without significant difficulty. With the exception of
ministers Benny Begin and Dan Meridor, a tenacious objection against an
Israeli strike on Iran is not expected.
We Won, in Points
Until a decision is made, we can ask: who won the latest round of fighting?
The answer: Israel, but in points.
Israel won this round because it determined the rules of the game, and even
the weather (it was no coincidence that the assassination of the
secretary-general of the Popular Resistance Committees, which triggered the
fire last Friday, took place at the start of a brief bright window of
opportunity in a fairly cold and cloudy winter). Israel also took advantage
of the fact that Hamas was in a state of distress – from its perspective,
the timing for starting a war against Israel was far from ideal. The
Palestinian Islamic Jihad is attempting to portray itself as the winner of
the past week, but that’s a blatant lie. At the bottom line, the
organization tried to force Israel to commit to refrain from carrying out
additional assassinations, in exchange for a ceasefire, yet did not get such
a commitment.
The heads of the Egyptian military also came out well this week, after
having proved that their capability to force measures upon Hamas and the
rest of the Gaza Strip organizations is fairly high.
The question is, when will the next round of fighting take place? The
answer: fairly soon. The ceasefire achieved this week is far from reflecting
a balanced situation, or one of a decisive blow to the other side (a fact,
as it was violated with the fire of a lone Grad rocket towards Netivot, the
night after it went into effect, and with the fire towards Be’er Sheva on
Wednesday evening). Southern children did not go to school once more, and
the IDF has already resumed attacks in the Strip (this time in less ideal
weather).
The next round of fighting (if it hasn’t already begun) will not be similar
to the past week. In extreme scenarios, it could start after the abduction
of an Israeli soldier or citizen, who would take Gilad Shalit's place in
captivity (the Palestinians have many reasons to try to replicate the
success of Shalit's abduction, and they are continuously trying to do so).
Israel, on the other hand, can also enter the Gaza Strip the next time, even
with the goal of toppling the Hamas regime. A fact: the IDF successfully
carried out Operation Defensive Shield in the Judea and Samaria regions
precisely a decade ago. This option is also in the toolbox of the political
and military echelons.
Iron Dome: Taking Advantage of the Opportunity
The great media hero of the past week was the Iron Dome system. The defense
establishment is hoping to leverage the public sympathy in order to “take
advantage” of the situation and gain more resources from Netanyahu, beyond
the continuous defense budget allocated for the system.
In a paradoxical manner, Israel has only invested 900 million NIS out of its
own resources to fund the research and development of the system and to
acquire the initial two batteries. Five additional batteries (four normal
batteries and another training battery, which can also be used for
operational purposes) are fully funded by the US taxpayer, at a cost of $205
million.
Israel is not allocating budgets for the funding of additional batteries,
even though the needs stipulate that 13 batteries are needed for a war
scenario in multiple sectors. Considerable doubt also surrounds the question
of whether the existing budgets are sufficient in order to produce a
sufficient amount of interceptors. In any case, the Iron Dome system is
already assured one thing: the Israel Defense Prize before the next
independence day. It's impossible to imagine a situation in which the
system's developers would not be rewarded the prize, even though the names
of the winners have yet to be published.
In addition, a few words about the anonymous heroes of the past week, the
essential weapon systems in the Gaza fighting, which did not receive praise
from the Prime Minister and countless newspaper articles; these are IAI’s
multi-branched radar system, which can provide a precise image of rocket
launches at any given moment, so that they can be attacked; and there is
Elbit System’s Hermes 450 UAV, which worked overtime.
Elbit
During a meeting with analysts for the publication of Elbit System’s 2011
annual report, Yossi Ackerman, Elbit's CEO, said on Wednesday that he's
sorry that the company is not involved in the prestigious project. He was
then corrected by one of the company's engineers who reminded that the
company is developing a sensor within the system.
Even without any actual involvement in the Iron Dome, Elbit's hands are
present in nearly all of the IDF’s combat sectors. Ackerman noted that Elbit
had a rough year, but he’s predicting increased sales in 2012.
An interesting point regarding Ackerman’s words: He claims that there’s no
doubt that the work on the Merkava and Namer APC project will be renewed
full steam after the inspection of the issue by the Ministries of Defense
and Treasury will be concluded (as was initially revealed on the
IsraelDefense website, a considerable portion of the project’s orders were
recently halted).
Another thing: Elbit Systems has not yet felt the effects of the defense
establishment’s decision – to prefer the Italian-produced aircraft over the
South Korean-produced aircraft as the next IAF trainer – with regards to the
important South Korean market. Elements in additional defense industries
also note that two weeks after the defense establishment’s decision,
relations with South Korea continued as normal. Does this mean that the
South Korean procurement orders from Israel will continue? This is
uncertain.
The fact that the US forces are expected to leave South Korea in 2015 plays
towards the Israeli defense industry’s favor. The local military personnel
must prepare for the new situation, and they are pertinently examining the
Israeli weapon systems.
New Head of the Planning Branch
Another event that happened this week: Brigadier General Nimrod Shefer, the
Israel Air Force (IAF) chief of staff, was chosen, as expected, to be the
next head of the Planning Branch. Shefer will replace Major General Amir
Eshel, who will be appointed as the next Air Force commander in May.
Unlike Eshel and Ido Nechushtan, the current Air Force commander is a
near-certain candidate for the future role of Air Force Commander. However,
even though he serves as head of the Planning Branch, Shefer's path to the
bureau of Air Force Commander is not assured after Eshel’s departure. He
will face stiff competition, at least against Brigadier General Amikam
Norkin, who was appointed as head of the IAF Air Group this week.
Looking at his current role, Shefer will face an especially difficult
assignment: prepare a new five-year plan for the IDF. "Halamish,” the plan
that Eshel worked on during most of his term, was supposed to enter into
effect in 2012. However, its implementation was postponed by a year, due to
cuts in the defense budget and the dramatic changes that occurred in the
Middle East.
Shefer’s assignment, lead “Halamish” so that it remains in effect until
2013-2018, is especially difficult. In previous periods, the IDF could
determine priorities in the force buildup. This time, there’s the need to
prepare for a coming war on all possible fronts: in the north against Syria
and Hezbollah, against Iran, and against Hamas in Gaza.
Above all else, the force in the south needs to be strengthened, given the
strategic warning over the possibility that the peace agreement with Egypt
might collapse due to the revolution that occurred there. The sooner this
happens, the better (in truth, the IDF has already started strengthening the
forces it is designating for the southern front).
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