Britannia Radio

Our Situation Has Never Been More Complicated

Will 2013 be a good or bad year in defense for Israel? Several 
clarifications on the eve of Israel's elections
Amir Rapaport 18/1/2013

http://www.israeldefense.com/?CategoryID=483&ArticleID=1913

The main characteristics of the regional situation picture at the start of 
2013 are an absence of stability (since 2011) and complexity. Therefore, the 
claim that Israel’s strategic situation has improved is simplistic (not to 
say expressly: incorrect).

Let us start with the good news: the analysis recently presented by the 
Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs is accurate with regards to at least two 
issues. Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis has indeed weakened considerably in the 
past year due to the Syrian civil war; and the pragmatism displayed by the 
Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt (and its influence on Hamas in Gaza) is 
encouraging and even very surprising. In the short range, there is no danger 
of war against a regular army following the disintegration of the Syrian 
military, and due to the internal affairs in which Egypt finds itself 
immersed.

Now for the not so good news: the main reason Hezbollah has been holding its 
fire since the Second Lebanon War is not Israeli deterrence, but rather a 
strategic decision by Iran not to let Hebzollah get into trouble in any 
entanglement with Israel until “judgment day.” Iran strengthened Hezbollah’s 
strength in recent years, but only as a threat to Israel’s home front, for 
the day that it is attacked. This threat is not like the weapon arsenal 
possessed by Hassan Nasrallah in 2006, nor is it like Hamas’ fire from Gaza 
during Operation Pillar of Defense.

Hezbollah’s weapon stockpiles include missiles with warheads of hundreds of 
kilograms and precision of up to dozens of meters. Meanwhile, Iran is 
advancing towards acquiring a nuclear weapon according to its strategy. Next 
spring, it can announce the suspension of the uranium enrichment, thus 
neutralizing any option for an attack against it (the short route to a bomb 
will be continued far from the eyes of the UN inspectors, even if it takes 
several years). There should be no mistake: even if an attack eventually 
occurs, Iran and Hezbollah are capable of attacking Israel with heavy 
weaponry, at a scope that the Iron Dome and Arrow systems will find it 
difficult to confront.

The situation in Egypt is not encouraging either: when the Muslim 
Brotherhood establishes its rule, it might gradually dissolve the peace 
treaty with Israel, and even gradually become an enemy again. The situation 
in Jordan is not stable, and the possibility of the collapse of the 
Hashemite rule is no less than a defense nightmare from Israel’s 
perspective. The situation in Syria might be encouraging in the long range 
(if a moderate Sunni government will be established after Assad), but in the 
short range, the instability might lead to terror attacks and even the fire 
of missiles towards Israel. What about the Judea and Samaria region? There a 
wave of popular terror has begun, in part due to the growing perception in 
the Palestinian street that the path of struggle against Israel is the 
correct path.

Worst of all is the fact that Israel’s strategic support, the US, is no 
longer the only all-capable superpower as in the past. Furthermore, for the 
first time in decades, Israel does not even have one significant ally in the 
Middle East (after initially losing Iran, and later Turkey and Egypt). Is 
there anyone in Israel that wouldn’t want to return the situation in the 
region back by at least a few years? Perhaps only in the Ministry of Foreign 
Affairs. 
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IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis
Website: www.imra.org.il