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FORECAST

It is becoming increasingly hard for Lockheed Martin to weather the
din of negative press surrounding the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter as of
late. Recently, this din has widened to include: a damning report from
the US Government Accountability Office, electoral politicking in
Canada, and cold feet in the Netherlands and Denmark.

Chief among the F-35s problems of late is an annual report on the
health of the program which was released last week by the US GAO. The
report slams ever-bloating costs (up 26 percent from the 2007
baseline) and ever-widening delivery delays (planes are now set to
arrive five years behind the original schedule). It should be noted
that fiscal bloat and delivery delays are not insurmountable hurdles
in the wider context of US military procurement programs; indeed both
have come to be expected. What is damning however is the report’s
attack on the actual military viability of the F-35’s current
design.

Here’s the important bit: “After more than 9 years in development
and 4 in production, the JSF program has not fully demonstrated that
the aircraft design is stable, manufacturing processes are mature, and
the system is reliable.” In laymen’s terms, the aircraft’s
design is still flawed, meaning it cannot be produced en masse,
frustrating the dream of a lower price per jet.

Thus the JSF program is facing a crisis. Its costs are getting higher,
delays are stretching out delivery schedules, and the future of combat
aviation- one that is presumably dominated by unmanned aircraft- is
also drawing closer.

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