Eurocrash: Germany – a tale of may polls
Friday 7 September 2012
Reported on the YouGov website, by Spiegel and others, we thus get to hear that there is a "sceptical mood" in Germany. According to the poll, a 54 percent majority wants Karlsruhe to reject the ESM and the Fiscal Pact. Only 25 percent of respondents want the court to dismiss the appeal. Further, 53 percent are opposed to transferring more powers to the EU. Only 27 percent are in favour.
On the issue of Greece, 42 percent would welcome the exclusion of Greece from the eurozone, while only 30 percent would find it "not good". Some 56 percent are worried that the eurozone as a whole will break up (as opposed to only six percent of the Bloomberg cohort expecting a collapse of the eurozone within the year).
However, whether this poll result truly represents a "sceptical mood" is somewhat moot. Back inearly July, there was a Forsa poll carried out for the magazine Stern. It had 74 percent of the 1,004 Germans polled against the idea of a United States of Europe. Only 22 percent supported the idea of abandoning the nation state.
The poll also had 63 percent against the idea of an elected EU president, with only 33 percent in favour, and 59 percent opposed the transfer of further financial powers from the Bundesbank to EU institutions. Only 36 percent were in favour.
A few days earlier, there had also been a poll published by Welt am Sonntag. It had 43 percent of respondents supporting a United States of Europe, with 51 percent speaking out against further political and economic integration. Similar proportions had been found to oppose giving Brussels more financial powers – 43 percent for and 52 percent against.
Currently, compared with the Welt am Sonntag poll, there seems to be very little movement in sentiment over two months. If the YouGov and Forsa polls are compared, it could be argued that there has been a weakening of eurosceptic sentiment, 53 percent opposed to transferring more powers now as opposed to 59 percent in June.
The waters are further muddied by another poll in Stern, yesterday, which sought to measure German sentiment on the ECB. Here, of those who recognised the bank president, 42 percent had "no confidence" in Draghi, 30 percent "very little", and only 18 percent "appreciated" him. Tellingly, 31 percent – nearly a third – of Germans had never heard of him, and nine percent had no opinion of him.
One can take it from this survey that a majority would be unlikely to approve the transfer of powers to an institution, the president of which they do not approve.
But what really muddies the waters are the national opinion polls on voting intentions at the general election. At the end of August, Merkel's CDU/CSU was putting up its best showing since July 2008, with a 39 percent share of the vote, while the nominally "eurosceptic" FDP was performing very poorly.
Currently, as of yesterday, the Union was maintaining its position, pulling in 40 percent, with the FDP languishing below the five percent mark needed to get it seats in the parliament.
Thus, we have the interesting situation where the "eurosceptic" party is bombing in the polls, while Merkel enjoys her best polls in years, despite her strident calls for "more Europe", and her endorsement of a United States of Europe.
Manfred Guellner, head of the polling firm Forsa explained this response some time ago: "Just like during all times of crisis, people rally around the government", he said. "Even though people don't understand individual actions, they support Merkel anyway".
Come decision time on the EU, my guess is that the majority will follow Merkel's lead (if she is re-elected, which seems likely). Currently, many Germans feel aggrieved that they are potentially exposed to unlimited debt from their eurozone partners, so any new treaty will be presented as a means of taking control and reducing liability. The chancellor may well prevail.
German polls, therefore – as everywhere – need to be taken with a pinch of salt. Reading the runes is never straightforward.
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Richard North 07/09/2012
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