ECFR publishes first-ever 'Power Audit' of EU 27-Russia relations

ECFR publishes first-ever 'Power Audit' of EU 27-Russia relations
The full text of the report can be accessed on ECFR's website www.ecfr.eu.
Analysis reveals that EU disunity allows Moscow to dominate

7, November, 2007 -
Despite its economic strength and military might, the European Union
has begun to behave as if it were
subordinate to an increasingly assertive Russia.
This dramatic change in the power relationship is rooted in the
EU's disunity and self-doubt -
but both can be fixed.

This is one of the conclusions of the
first-ever 'Power Audit'
on bilateral EU-Russia relations,
conducted with the participation of national experts from 27 EU member states.
The report is published today
by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR),
a new think-tank and advocacy group.
( Download report)

"Today, it is the Kremlin that sets the agenda for EU-Russia relations,
and it does so in a manner
that increasingly defies the rules
of the game," says Joschka Fischer,
former German foreign minister and ECFR's co-chair.
"The reason for that is the disunity of the EU.
This must change."

The EU's failure to agree on a common Russia policy has allowed the Kremlin to increase its leverage over the EU, through signing bilateral energy deals, playing the Kosovo card, asserting itself in the common neighbourhood, and dragging its feet on preventing nuclear proliferation. During the Putin years, Moscow had bilateral disputes with 11 EU countries, including the Litvinenko affair with the UK, the Polish meat ban, and trade disputes with the Netherlands.

"Russia is the most divisive issue in the EU since Donald Rumsfeld and the Iraq war," says Mark Leonard, ECFR's executive director and one of the report's authors. "But Russia's power is deceptive: the EU's combined economy is 15 times the size of Russia's, its military budget is seven times higher, and its population three times the size of Russia. If European countries unite around a common strategy, they will realise how powerful they really are."

The ECFR report says that EU governments are torn between two dominant approaches to Russia. One side sees Russia as a threat that needs to be managed with 'soft-containment', the other sees the country a potential partner that can be transformed through 'creeping integration' into the European system.

Within those, the analysis identifies five distinct categories of countries. Greece and Cyprus are referred to as 'trojan horses' whose governments often defend positions close to Russian interests, and who have been willing to veto common EU positions. The study reveals little-known facts such as Cyprus being the biggest official 'investor' in Russia, due to the amount of Russian capital which is saved there.

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